The United Arab Emirates’ latest determination to go away OPEC, the once-powerful oil producers’ cartel, was years within the making, pushed primarily by a divergence in financial realities. The UAE had developed a much less oil-dependent economic system than Saudi Arabia, the de facto chief of OPEC, so it had a distinct method to grease pricing and output ranges. Analysts famous that the Iran battle, with its momentary enhance to grease costs, created a chance for Abu Dhabi to make the transfer with out inflicting costs to break down.
Whereas this evaluation factors to real components, it misses a key driver of the choice, and one in every of its most vital geopolitical ramifications: The UAE is breaking not solely with OPEC, but in addition from a lot of its neighbors. Abu Dhabi has lengthy been crafting a brand new regional safety framework that places it at odds with erstwhile allies like Saudi Arabia, however this development has been accelerated by the Iran battle. The aftershocks will proceed to be felt all through the area lengthy after the battle ends.
After the U.S. and Israel launched a marketing campaign of airstrikes in opposition to Iran in late February, the nation responded with missile and drone strokes in opposition to U.S. allies and companions within the Gulf, with the UAE being notably exhausting hit. The view from Abu Dhabi is that its mates within the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League and elsewhere failed to reply in a way commensurate with Iran’s actions. In consequence, Emirati leaders now maintain a really totally different view from their neighbors concerning the menace posed by Iran and the way it must be addressed sooner or later.
