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If negotiations with Iran collapse, the U.S. possible is to maneuver shortly to degrade Tehran’s navy capabilities — a marketing campaign analysts say would start with missile methods, naval belongings and command networks earlier than escalating to extra controversial targets.
Negotiators are nonetheless working towards what officers describe as a preliminary framework settlement — successfully a one-page place to begin for broader talks centered on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions aid. However deep distrust on each side has left the method fragile, elevating the stakes if diplomacy fails.
“We’re not beginning at zero,” retired Military Col. Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Employees planner and present Vice President at World Guardian, advised Fox Information Digital. “We’re each beginning at minus 1,000 as a result of neither facet trusts one another in any respect. That is going to be a fairly exhausting course of going ahead.”
That pressure was on show Thursday, when a senior U.S. official confirmed American forces struck Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas — key areas close to the Strait of Hormuz — whereas insisting the operation didn’t mark a restart of the battle or the top of the ceasefire.
The strike on one in all Iran’s oil ports got here two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic and cruise missiles on the UAE’s Fujairah Port, drawing anger from Gulf allies. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine mentioned earlier this week the assault didn’t rise to the extent of breaking the ceasefire, describing it as a low-level strike.
President Donald Trump repeatedly has warned that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. may resume bombing Iran — even signaling earlier than the current ceasefire was applied that Washington may goal the nation’s power infrastructure and key financial belongings. However any escalation would possible unfold in phases, starting with efforts to dismantle Iran’s skill to mission drive throughout the area earlier than increasing to extra controversial targets.
President Donald Trump has warned repeatedly that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. may resume bombing Iran. (Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg through Getty Photographs)
If talks break down, any renewed battle would possible develop into a “contest for escalation management,” the place Iran seeks to impose prices with out scary regime-threatening retaliation whereas the U.S. works to strip away Tehran’s remaining leverage, in line with retired Air Drive Lt. Gen. David Deptula.
“The capabilities that might come into focus are those Iran makes use of to generate coercive leverage: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air protection methods, maritime strike belongings, command-and-control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy assist channels, and nuclear-related services,” he mentioned, referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The navy goal can be much less about punishment and extra about denying Iran the instruments it makes use of to escalate,” he mentioned.
“President Trump has all of the playing cards, and he properly retains all choices on the desk to make sure that Iran can by no means possess a nuclear weapon,” White Home spokesperson Olivia Wales advised Fox Information Digital. The Pentagon couldn’t instantly be reached for remark.
One early focus might be Iran’s fleet of quick assault boats within the Strait of Hormuz — a central part of Tehran’s skill to threaten world delivery in one of many world’s most important power corridors.
RP Newman, a navy and terrorism analyst and Marine Corp veteran, mentioned leaving a lot of that fleet intact throughout earlier strikes was a mistake.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
“We’ve blown up six of them,” he mentioned. “They’ve bought about 400 left.”
The small, fast-moving boats are a key a part of Iran’s uneven maritime technique, able to harassing business tankers and U.S. naval forces — and will shortly develop into a precedence goal in any renewed marketing campaign.
A lot of Iran’s core navy construction additionally stays intact.
INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL
Newman mentioned “we’ve solely killed lower than one p.c of IRGC troops,” leaving a big portion of the drive nonetheless able to finishing up operations. He estimated the group “numbers between 150 and 190,000.”
However concentrating on the IRGC is way extra advanced than eliminating senior management.
“They’re not only a group of leaders on the prime that you may kill away,” Krummrich mentioned. “Over 47 years it’s percolated down to each stage.”
An excavator removes rubble on the website of a strike that destroyed half of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and close by residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, on April 7, 2026, in line with a safety official on the scene. (Francisco Seco/AP)
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies coverage institute, mentioned Washington could proceed tightening financial strain earlier than broadening navy motion, arguing the U.S. ought to “squeeze them for at the very least one other three to 6 weeks” earlier than contemplating extra aggressive escalation.
“You would have blown Kharg Island again to smithereens,” Krummrich mentioned, referring to Iran’s main oil export terminal within the Persian Gulf. “However what the planner mentioned was, no — what we will do is a maritime blockade. It’ll have the identical impact.”
Iran has continued transferring crude via covert delivery networks and ship-to-ship transfers, with tanker trackers reporting hundreds of thousands of barrels nonetheless reaching markets in current weeks.
A CIA evaluation discovered Iran might be able to maintain these pressures for an additional three to 4 months earlier than dealing with extra extreme financial pressure, in line with a report by The Washington Submit.
The query is how far a U.S. marketing campaign may develop if preliminary strain fails to drive concessions.
Trump has signaled a willingness to go additional, warning earlier than the ceasefire that the U.S. may “fully obliterate” Iran’s electrical producing vegetation, oil infrastructure and key export hubs equivalent to Kharg Island if a deal just isn’t reached.
Strikes on the Iranian management, the IRGC, and Iranian naval vessels and oil infrastructure have roiled the markets. ( Sasan / Center East Photographs / AFP through Getty Photographs)
“You don’t do that initially,” Montgomery mentioned, describing strikes on dual-use infrastructure as a conditional step depending on Iran’s response.
Focusing on dual-use infrastructure presents important authorized and operational challenges.
“I’ve bought 500 folks standing on my goal. You’ll be able to’t hit that,” Newman mentioned.
Such selections carry political and authorized dangers, notably given the probability of worldwide scrutiny.
Broader infrastructure strikes additionally may create long-term instability in the event that they push Iran towards inside collapse.
“Within the brief time period, it’d assist. However in the long run, we’re all going to should take care of it,” Krummrich mentioned. “When you pull that lever, you are principally pushing Iran nearer to the sting of the abyss.”
A collapse of state authority may create a failed-state situation throughout the Strait of Hormuz, with armed teams, drones and missiles working unchecked in one of many world’s most strategically vital waterways.
Even a number of the most mentioned navy choices — equivalent to seizing Iran’s extremely enriched uranium — can be extraordinarily tough to execute.
“That is a lot tougher than it sounds,” mentioned Montgomery.
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Such a mission would possible take months, and require engineers, technicians and heavy excavation gear, along with 1000’s of U.S. operators offering steady air protection.
“If you begin to stack that up, that turns into useful resource intensive and excessive danger — not even excessive, excessive danger,” mentioned Krummrich.
