One yr into his second time period, President Donald Trump declared that america is the “hottest nation anyplace on the earth.”
Trump touted America’s financial energy earlier than an viewers of world elites on the World Financial Discussion board Wednesday, saying america is seeing “just about no inflation and terribly excessive financial development.”
The day prior, Trump gave a prolonged briefing to reporters in Washington, holding a stack of papers titled “365 WINS IN 365 DAYS: President Trump’s Return Marks New Period of Success, Prosperity.”
Whereas the American economic system has confirmed resilient, the numbers paint a combined image. Inflation remains to be greater than the Federal Reserve’s goal price, job development slowed dramatically in 2025 and whereas power costs have fallen, the president has overstated by how a lot.
Jobs
Billionaire Elon Musk’s Division of Authorities Effectivity cuts to the federal workforce, Trump’s marketing campaign of mass deportations and his sweeping international tariff agenda are a number of the components that formed the employment image in the course of the first yr of Trump’s second time period.
Job development slowed dramatically final yr, with simply 584,000 jobs added in 2025. This was sharply decrease than every of the earlier 4 years underneath his predecessor Joe Biden, which noticed greater than 2 million jobs added yearly.
Barring three recession years, 2025 marked the slowest 12 months for U.S. job creation since 2003.
Trump promised within the spring that his protectionist financial coverage would imply “jobs and factories will come roaring again into our nation.” However that hasn’t occurred but.
Quite the opposite, manufacturing employment has dropped by 72,000 jobs since Trump introduced his “reciprocal” country-specific tariffs April 2, a date he dubbed “Liberation Day.”
Productiveness
Whereas employment fell wanting Trump’s early guarantees final yr, U.S. productiveness grew by greater than what many economists had predicted.
Actual gross home product, or GDP, elevated at an annual price of 4.3% within the third quarter of 2025, in line with an estimate in December by the federal Bureau of Financial Evaluation.
In the course of the earlier quarter, the annual price of GDP development was 3.8%.
The 4.3% GDP development amounted to the biggest quarterly enhance because the third quarter of 2023.
The quantity “mirrored will increase in shopper spending, exports, and authorities spending that had been partly offset by a lower in funding,” the BEA stated. “Imports, that are a subtraction within the calculation of GDP, decreased.”
Many Wall Road economists forecast fourth quarter financial development can be even greater. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Financial institution estimated GDP for the quarter can be 5.4%.
Costs and spending
Shopper spending during the last yr has more and more been pushed by wealthier Individuals, whereas many lower- and middle-income households have pulled again to be able to take up greater prices of dwelling.
General, costs rose 2.7% in December from the identical month a yr earlier than. That’s above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal however a powerful enchancment from the high-water mark of 9% inflation post-pandemic.
Inside that 2.7% inflation determine, there have been some standout classes.
Since final January, city electrical energy costs have risen by a median of 6.7%, in line with inflation knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Throughout that very same interval, the price of auto insurance coverage elevated 0.8% and common month-to-month housing costs rose 2.8%. Grocery costs rose 1.9%.
However whereas total grocery worth will increase had been average, prices for some shopper staples soared final yr.
The typical worth of orange juice was up 37.6% from a yr in the past, in line with NBC Information’ grocery worth tracker knowledge as of final week. The price of floor beef rose 16.4% in the identical interval. In each instances, there have been a number of components at work, together with climate, illnesses affecting oranges and cows, and elevated labor prices.
Nonetheless, the common worth of eggs declined greater than 20% final yr, the NBC Information tracker confirmed.
Gasoline costs, too, have dropped sharply since Trump took workplace — plunging 11.5% on common since final January.
The value-tracking group GasBuddy initiatives that gasoline this yr will common $2.97 per gallon, 13 cents lower than the common worth final yr.
Trump exaggerated the drop in gasoline costs in his remarks Tuesday on the White Home, nevertheless. The president incorrectly stated gasoline costs had been averaging $2.31 a gallon. Based on AAA, the nationwide common for normal gasoline was round $2.83 on Jan. 21.
Market positive factors
Trump additionally has taken credit score for a collection of record-breaking new highs for the inventory market.
Certainly, main indexes have set new data in Trump’s second time period, with the S&P 500 and the Dow each closing at all-time highs as not too long ago as Jan. 12.
The S&P 500 gained 13% in the course of the first yr of Trump’s second time period. However that quantity doesn’t stand out when set towards the market positive factors throughout different current presidents’ first years in workplace.
Throughout Biden’s first 12 months in workplace, the S&P rose round 16%. Within the first yr of Trump’s first time period, the S&P jumped round 24%.
However these positive factors pale compared to the 41% returns the S&P delivered within the first 12 months of Barack Obama’s presidency, as america recovered from the 2008 monetary disaster.
On Tuesday, Trump’s one yr anniversary was marked by a rout on Wall Road, with the S&P dropping greater than 2% of its worth.
The losses prolonged to markets world wide and to the opposite U.S. indexes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Common and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each closing sharply decrease.
Driving the sell-off was an exodus from U.S. shares and bonds often called the “Promote America” commerce, as traders dumped shares and weighed the prospect of a commerce struggle between the U.S. and Europe.
Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose new 10% tariffs on seven European Union international locations and Britain until they assist his bid to provide the U.S. management over Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory.
On Wednesday, the European Union paused closing approval of its July commerce cope with the U.S.
However Trump dismissed the fallout from his newest tariff menace.
“The USA is the financial engine on the planet,” he instructed world leaders in Davos. “And when America booms, your entire world booms.”
