Welcome again to International Coverage’s Scenario Report, the place we’re only one week out from this yr’s Munich Safety Convention. As all the time, we’ll be producing each day SitRep pop-up editions in the course of the three-day gathering in addition to taking part in a number of FP occasions with authorities officers and specialists—which you’ll hold observe of right here.
In the meantime, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: the continued uncertainty round U.S.-Iran talks, airstrikes in Syria, and the finish of New START.
America and Iran are set to carry talks in Oman on Friday, lowering the opportunity of U.S. President Donald Trump making good on threats to order army strikes—for now, a minimum of. Over the previous few days, there’s been a whirlwind of blended messages and conflicting reporting on whether or not the talks would occur, the place they might happen, and beneath what phrases. However the two sides are poised to maneuver ahead regardless of disagreements over the scope of the discussions.
“They’re negotiating,” Trump mentioned of Iran on Thursday on the Nationwide Prayer Breakfast in Washington. “They don’t need us to hit them.”
Will they/received’t they. The talks had been initially slated to happen in Istanbul, with overseas ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia additionally set to attend. However Iran reportedly pushed for adjustments on the final minute, together with transferring the venue to Muscat, Oman, and excluding representatives from different international locations. Tehran additionally wished to position strict limitations on the agenda, insisting that the discussions stay centered on its nuclear program. This threatened to derail the assembly altogether, because the Trump administration additionally desires to debate limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its help for proxy teams throughout the Center East.
However the White Home confirmed to SitRep on Wednesday that the talks had been again on, even because the exact agenda of the discussions stays up within the air. Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will lead his nation’s delegation on Friday, additionally confirmed the talks by way of a publish on X, stating, “Nuclear talks with america are scheduled to be held in Muscat on about 10 am Friday. I’m grateful to our Omani brothers for making all essential preparations.” Particular envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation.
The stakes. Friday will mark the primary formal diplomatic discussions between america and Iran since Trump ordered strikes on nuclear websites throughout the nation in June 2025. The strikes did important injury to Iran’s nuclear program however didn’t utterly “obliterate” it, regardless of claims on the contrary from Trump. The placement of Iran’s 400 kilogram stockpile of extremely enriched uranium additionally stays unclear.
Tensions between the 2 international locations have remained excessive because the U.S. strikes and have escalated in latest weeks amid Tehran’s bloody crackdown on mass anti-government protests that swept the nation. Estimates on the variety of demonstrators killed by Iranian safety forces vary from round 6,000 to greater than 33,000.
Beginning in early January, Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iran over its violent response to the protests. Although Trump has not but ordered such motion, he has boosted the U.S. army presence within the area to maintain his choices open—and on Tuesday, a U.S. Navy fighter jet downed an Iranian drone that approached an plane provider within the Arabian Sea. Trump mentioned on Wednesday that Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei needs to be “very apprehensive.”
Friday’s talks might play an enormous position in figuring out whether or not Trump decides to order contemporary strikes on Iran. Latest reviews point out that Tehran is worried {that a} U.S. assault might reignite the protests and threaten the regime’s survival.
The Trump administration has known as for Iran to cease enriching uranium and hand over its stockpile of extremely enriched uranium. Points comparable to this might be main sticking factors on the upcoming talks. However with either side at odds over these points—and unable to even agree on what might be mentioned—a significant breakthrough seems unlikely.
The controversy and confusion round U.S. Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s presence at a latest FBI raid on an election middle in Georgia solely continues to develop, with Trump saying on Thursday that Gabbard was there at Legal professional Basic Pam Bondi’s insistence. Trump had mentioned in an NBC Information interview a day earlier that he didn’t know why Gabbard was current on the raid earlier than speculating that it may very well be due to interference by China in U.S. elections. Gabbard mentioned in a letter to Congress earlier within the week that Trump had “particularly directed” her to be there.
What needs to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Ukraine’s ‘constructive’ negotiations. The second spherical of trilateral negotiations amongst Ukraine, Russia, and america over ending Russia’s warfare in Ukraine concluded in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, with Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov describing the talks as “constructive and centered on create the circumstances for a sturdy peace.”
Russia and Ukraine every launched 157 prisoners of warfare as a part of the negotiations, their first such alternate in 5 months, he added. The U.S. army’s European Command additionally mentioned it had agreed to renew military-to-military dialogue with Russia for the primary time since late 2021.
However progress on ending the warfare has been sluggish, and this week’s talks yielded little when it comes to precise outcomes past the prisoner swap. Russia is continuous its assault on Ukraine, together with conducting large airstrikes on the nation’s power grid on Tuesday, the day earlier than the Abu Dhabi negotiations started.
New START ends. On Thursday, the clock formally ran out on the final nuclear arms treaty between Russia and america. The New Strategic Arms Discount Treaty (New START) entered into drive in 2011, changing the 1991 START I treaty and inserting limits on the variety of nuclear weapons that Moscow and Washington—which collectively management 90 p.c of the world’s warheads—might deploy.
Trump mentioned on Thursday that “[r]ather than prolong ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by america that, other than every part else, is being grossly violated), we must always have our Nuclear Specialists work on a brand new, improved, and modernized Treaty that may final lengthy into the longer term.” He has beforehand mentioned that such a deal ought to embrace different main nuclear powers—specifically, China. America and Russia are reportedly negotiating a deal to proceed informally observing New START’s provisions, however for now, we’re in an unsure nuclear limbo.
Syria strikes. America has lately performed a number of airstrikes in Syria towards the Islamic State, the U.S. army’s Central Command (Centcom) introduced on Wednesday, hitting 5 targets between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 and destroying among the group’s communications, logistics, and weapons capabilities. “Placing these targets demonstrates our continued focus and resolve for stopping an ISIS resurgence in Syria,” Adm. Brad Cooper, the Centcom commander, mentioned in an announcement. “Working in coordination with coalition and companion forces to make sure the enduring defeat of ISIS makes America, the area and the world safer.”
Supporters of Colombian President Gustavo Petro watch a display screen exhibiting him and U.S. President Donald Trump throughout a rally to help Petro’s go to to america, seen in Bogotá on Feb. 3. Alejandro Gonzalez/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Rishi simply returned from Doha, Qatar, the place he moderated a panel on the Net Summit tech convention with Lebanese Data Minister Paul Morcos and Pedro Lopes, Cape Verde’s secretary of state for digital economic system, on how governments can successfully talk with their residents within the age of social media and synthetic intelligence-enabled disinformation.
Each authorities officers pressured the significance of pace. “You must make fast statements each time wanted,” Morcos mentioned. Lopes, a prolific Instagrammer, mentioned, “Individuals don’t have time anymore for spending 15-20 minutes to learn some communication of the federal government,” including that “these days, pace and emotion beats accuracy.”
The problem is heightened for the Lebanese authorities, which is overseeing a fragile cease-fire with Israel that includes negotiating the disarmament of Hezbollah. “We now have troublesome circumstances that we’re going through, and on the identical time, we’re making some reforms, and we’re transferring towards stability and peace,” Morcos mentioned. “For the residents, they need to really feel reduction; they need to really feel that they’ve a authorities working heading in the right direction, so the message to ship is essential.”
Lebanon simply enacted a brand new media legislation, Morcos introduced, aimed toward updating and substituting a 1994 broadcasting regulation for the social media age. The brand new legislation, which nonetheless must be ratified by parliament, goals to manage on-line platforms “with out hurting the liberty of press,” he mentioned, whereas “placing excessive fines for individuals who abuse the liberty of press and depart harms towards third events.”
Monday, Feb. 9: The UK’s Prince William is scheduled to go to Saudi Arabia.
Tuesday, Feb. 10: The heads of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Safety, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Companies are all scheduled to testify in entrance of the Home Committee on Homeland Safety.
Wednesday, Feb. 11: America will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Protection Convention in Washington.
European Union protection ministers will meet in Brussels.
Thursday, Feb. 12: Bangladesh will maintain its common election.
NATO protection ministers will meet in Brussels.
Friday, Feb. 13: The Munich Safety Convention begins.
700—the variety of federal brokers who might be leaving Minnesota amid controversy over the killing of two U.S. residents there, in response to Trump’s border czar Tom Homan. Trump mentioned in an interview with NBC Information on Wednesday that the federal government might “possibly … use a bit little bit of a softer contact.”
“The system sucks. This job sucks.”
—Julie Le, an lawyer for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, admitting to a decide that the federal government doesn’t have sufficient attorneys to maintain up with immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. The federal government has since eliminated Le from the Minnesota element.
An unnamed man reportedly pressured a hospital in Toulouse, France, to be evacuated final weekend after exhibiting up with an 8-inch-long unexploded artillery shell that was utilized by the German military in World Struggle I lodged in his rectum. The affected person is anticipated to make a full restoration (a minimum of bodily) however is more likely to face many uncomfortable questions within the coming weeks, months, and possibly years.
