WASHINGTON — President Trump made historic good points with Latinos when he received reelection final yr, boosting Republicans’ confidence that their financial message was serving to them make inroads with a gaggle of voters who had lengthy leaned towards Democrats.
However on this week’s election, Democrats in key states have been in a position to disrupt that rightward shift by gaining again Latino help, exit polls confirmed.
In New Jersey and Virginia, the Democrats working for governor made good points in counties with massive Latino populations, and general received two-thirds of the Latino vote of their states, in response to an NBC Information ballot.
And in California, a CNN exit ballot confirmed about 70% of Latinos voting in favor of Proposition 50, a Democratic redistricting initiative designed to counter Trump’s plans to reshape congressional maps in an effort to maintain GOP management of the Home.
The outcomes mark the primary concrete instance on the poll field of Latino voters turning away from the GOP — a shift foreshadowed by current polling as their issues in regards to the economic system and immigration raids have grown.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill celebrates with supporters after being elected New Jersey governor.
(Michael Nagle/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos)
If the pattern continues, it might spell bother for Republicans in subsequent yr’s midterm elections, stated Gary Segura, a professor of public coverage, political science and Chicana/o research at UCLA. This could possibly be very true in California and Texas, the place each events are banking on Latino voters to assist them decide up seats within the Home, Segura stated.
“A yr is a very long time in politics, however definitely the vote on Prop. 50 is a really, excellent signal for the Democrats’ potential to choose up the newly drawn congressional districts,” Segura stated. “I believe Latino voters might be actually instrumental within the consequence.”
Democrats, in the meantime, are feeling optimistic that their warnings about Trump’s immigration crackdown and a nasty economic system are resonating with Latinos.
Republicans are questioning to what diploma the occasion can preserve help amongst Latinos with out Trump on the ticket. In 2024, Trump received roughly 48% of the Latino vote nationally — a document for any Republican presidential candidate.
Some Republicans noticed this week’s developments amongst Latino voters as a “wakeup name.”
“The Hispanic vote is just not assured. Hispanics married President Donald Trump however are solely relationship the GOP,” Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida stated in a social media video the day after the election. “I’ve been warning it: If the GOP doesn’t ship, we’ll lose the Hispanic vote everywhere in the nation.”
Financial points a essential driver
Final yr Trump was in a position to leverage widespread frustration with the economic system to win the help of Latinos. He promised to create jobs and decrease the prices of dwelling.
However polling exhibits {that a} majority of Latino voters now disapprove of how Trump and the Republicans accountable for Congress are dealing with the economic system. Half of Latinos stated they anticipated Trump’s financial insurance policies to go away them worse off a yr from now in a Unidos ballot launched final week.
In New Jersey, that sentiment was exemplified by voters like Rumaldo Gomez. He advised MSNBC he voted for Trump final yr however this week went for for the Democratic candidate for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
“Now, I have a look at Trump completely different,” Gomez stated. “The economic system doesn’t look good.”
Gomez added he’s “very unhappy” about immigration raids led by the Trump administration which have cut up up hardworking households.
Whereas Latino voters concern being affected by immigration enforcement actions, polling suggests they’re extra involved about value of dwelling, jobs and housing. The Unidos ballot confirmed immigration rating fifth on the listing of issues.
In New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats’ double-digit victories have been constructed on guarantees to cut back the price of dwelling, whereas blaming Trump for his or her financial ache.
Marcus Robinson, a spokesman for the Democratic Nationwide Committee, stated Democrats “expanded margins and flipped key counties by incomes again Latino voters who know Trump’s economic system leaves them behind.”
“These outcomes present that Latino communities need progress, not a return to chaos and damaged guarantees,” he stated.
Republicans see a special Trump difficulty
GOP strategist Matt Terrill, who was chief of workers for then-Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential marketing campaign, stated the election outcomes will not be a referendum on Trump.
Latino voters swung left as a result of Trump wasn’t on the poll, he stated.
Final yr “it wasn’t Latino voters turning out for the Republican occasion, it was Latino voters turning out for President Trump,” he stated. “Like him or not, he’s in a position to fireplace up voters that the Republican occasion historically doesn’t get.”
With Trump barred by the Structure from working for a 3rd time period, Republicans are left to marvel if they’ll get the Latino vote again when he’s not on the poll. Terrill believes Republicans have to hammer on the problem of affordability as a high precedence.
Mike Madrid, a “by no means Trump” Republican and former political director of the California Republican Occasion, has a special idea.
“They’re abandoning each events,” Madrid stated of Latinos. “They deserted the Republican occasion for a similar causes they deserted the Democratic occasion in November: not addressing financial issues.”
The economic system has lengthy been the highest concern for Latinos, Madrid stated, but each events proceed to border the Latino political agenda round immigration.
“Latinos aren’t voting for Democrats or Republicans — they’re voting in opposition to Democrats and in opposition to Republicans,” Madrid stated. “It’s a really huge distinction. The partisans are all taking a look at us as if we’re this peculiar unique little creature.”
The work forward
Democrat Abigail Spanberger was elected governor in Virginia partially due to huge good points in Latino-heavy communities. One of many greatest good points was in Manassas Park, the place greater than 40% of residents are Latino. She received town by 42 factors, doubling the Democrats’ efficiency there in final yr’s election.
The shift towards Democrats occurred as a result of Latinos believed Trump when he promised to carry down excessive prices of dwelling and that he would solely go after violent criminals in immigration raids, stated Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, who labored with Spanberger’s marketing campaign on outreach to Spanish-language media.
As a substitute, she argued, Trump betrayed them.
Cardona stated Medicaid cuts below Trump’s huge spending package deal this yr, together with the discount of supplemental vitamin help amid the federal government shutdown, have Latinos households panicking.
“What Republicans misguidedly and mistakenly thought was a realignment of Latino voters simply turned out to be a blip,” she stated. “Latinos ought to by no means be thought-about a base vote.”
Political scientists warning that the election outcomes this week will not be essentially indicative of how races will play out a yr from now.
“It’s only one election, however definitely the seeds have been planted for sturdy Latino Democratic turnouts in 2026,” stated Brad Jones, a political science professor at UC Davis.
Now, each events want to elucidate how they anticipate to hold out their guarantees if elected.
“They’ll’t sit on their laurels and say, ‘nicely certainly the Latinos are coming again as a result of the economic system is unhealthy and immigration enforcement is unhealthy,’” Jones stated. “The job of the Democratic occasion is now to succeed in out to Latino voters in methods which might be extra than simply symbolic.”
