Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report, our first version of 2026. We hope you had a restful vacation break, contemplating we’ve already had a minimum of a month’s value of stories in simply the primary week of January.
On that word, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: Trump desires to show the U.S. navy into his private world enforcers, protests rock the regime in Iran, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will get a distinguished U.S. lawyer.
If 2025 marked a yr of norm-busting for a way the U.S. navy is used (as we coated in a number of newsletters), we’re already taking a look at a doable obliteration of these norms simply days into 2026.
Thus far this yr, U.S. President Donald Trump has used the navy to grab Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro after months of strikes on alleged drug boats off the nation’s coast, and has since mused about taking comparable actions towards Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Iran, and Greenland.
In case you missed it, he additionally licensed an airstrike on Islamic State militants in Nigeria final month, citing their alleged focusing on of Christians within the nation, although particulars of these allegations and of the strikes themselves have been scant. Consultants have emphasised that whereas there’s a drawback with lethal jihadi extremist violence in Nigeria, it’s typically indiscriminate and impacts individuals throughout spiritual traces.
Trump’s oft-repeated 2024 marketing campaign promise of “no new wars” has repeatedly been blown out of the water, and the U.S. president is now calling for a considerably greater conflict chest.
“I’ve decided that, for the Good of our Nation, particularly in these very troubled and harmful instances, our Army Funds for the yr 2027 shouldn’t be $1 Trillion {Dollars}, however slightly $1.5 Trillion {Dollars},” Trump wrote in a put up on Fact Social on Wednesday. “This may enable us to construct the ‘Dream Army’ that we’ve lengthy been entitled to and, extra importantly, that can hold us SAFE and SECURE, no matter foe,” he added.
Imagined threats. Lots of Trump’s justifications for the navy actions he’s taken have been based mostly on flimsy proof or embellished assertions—significantly on the subject of Venezuela. The Trump administration has characterised the nation as a serious supply of lethal medication being trafficked in the US—however prime specialists strongly dispute this. Many of the medication that the US is most frightened about, similar to cocaine and fentanyl, are produced in different nations and journey by land throughout the U.S. border by way of Mexico.
Whereas many agree with the administration’s declare that Maduro was an illegitimate and corrupt chief, the Trump administration has additionally not offered onerous proof to again up the notion that he’s a “narcoterrorist.” In a telling improvement, the administration in its authorized case towards Maduro has already deserted its continuously repeated declare that he heads the “Cartel de los Soles,” which specialists have stated is a slang time period for corrupt officers in Venezuela who’ve accepted drug cash and never an precise group.
Republican reins. Congress has to date largely eschewed any checks and balances on Trump’s use of the navy. However that shifted barely within the Senate on Thursday, which voted to advance a conflict powers decision by Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine to curb Trump from taking additional navy motion in Venezuela with out getting permission from Congress first.
The decision—which 5 Republican senators joined Democrats in voting for—should nonetheless go within the full Senate, faces an unsure path within the Home, and will finally be vetoed by Trump. Nevertheless it served as a shot throughout Trump’s bow from lawmakers in his personal social gathering. Trump posted on Fact Social that “Republicans must be ashamed” of the 5 senators who voted to advance the decision, including that these senators “ought to by no means be elected to workplace once more.”
At the same time as extra Republican lawmakers start to waver of their assist of Trump’s navy ambitions, the trickle of congressional dissent and strain towards the administration is prone to change into a flood if Democrats take management of the Home and Senate in November’s midterm elections. It’s a risk that Trump is properly conscious of, telling Republicans on Tuesday that he would “get impeached” in the event that they lose the midterms.
That election remains to be practically a yr away, nonetheless, giving Trump a number of extra months to probably escalate U.S. navy intervention all over the world. Given what we’ve seen within the first week of 2026, it’s turning into abundantly clear that no nation can afford to disregard Trump’s menace of navy power—regardless of how outlandish it’d sound.
Barry Pollack, an skilled lawyer who beforehand represented WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, will signify Maduro within the legal case the U.S. Justice Division has introduced towards him, in line with court docket filings.
The Hoover Constructing in downtown Washington, D.C.—which served because the FBI’s longtime headquarters till the company’s present director, Kash Patel, moved it just a few blocks away final yr—will now be “shut down completely,” Patel confirmed in a put up on X.
What must be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
‘Hostile rhetoric.’ Dozens have been killed in Iran in current days amid anti-government protests prompted by frustrations over the nation’s floundering financial system. The demonstrations, which have reportedly unfold to over 100 cities and cities throughout Iran, have been met with a violent crackdown by safety forces.
Iran’s financial system has struggled below the load of crippling sanctions linked to its tensions with the West. These sanctions tightened following a 12-day conflict between the nation and Israel in June 2025, which culminated with U.S. strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear websites. The protests started in late December as Iran’s rial plunged to a file low towards the U.S. greenback.
Trump has threatened to intervene if extra protesters are killed, warning Iran that it might be “hit very onerous” by the US. However U.S. involvement may probably backfire and exacerbate the federal government’s crackdown whereas endangering U.S. troops within the area. In a warning seemingly geared toward the US and Israel, which has additionally expressed assist for the protests, Iran’s military chief on Wednesday stated that the nation would reply to “hostile rhetoric.”
Ukraine’s safety ensures. Kyiv has been adamant that it wants safety ensures from the US and Europe to discourage future Russian aggression earlier than signing off on any peace take care of Moscow. Progress was made on this entrance in current days, however a lot stays up within the air.
A coalition of Ukraine’s allies met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. representatives in Paris this week to debate the matter, releasing a press release that stated the coalition stands “able to decide to a system of politically and legally binding ensures that might be activated as soon as a ceasefire enters into power.” France and the UK additionally signed a declaration of intent to position French and British troops on the bottom in Ukraine following a cease-fire. Although the US didn’t signal onto the coalition assertion, it did provide verbal assist for safety ensures from the coalition.
Zelensky on Thursday additionally stated a bilateral doc for Ukraine’s safety ensures is now prepared for finalization with Trump. However in yet one more signal of how troublesome will probably be to succeed in a deal that either side within the conflict will settle for, Russia has already thrown chilly water on the notion of deploying Western troops to Ukraine—warning it might understand such forces as a “menace” and subsequently as professional fight targets.
An onlooker holds an indication that reads “Disgrace” as members of legislation enforcement work the scene following a deadly capturing by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent throughout federal legislation enforcement operations in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Jan. 7. Stephen Maturen/Getty Photos
SitRep spoke with Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff on Thursday after the vote on the conflict powers decision that he cosponsored with Kaine. Schiff stated he was shocked that the vote’s “margin was as robust because it was” however that assist for curbing Trump’s conflict powers has grown amongst Republicans “as a result of using navy power has continued to escalate” and the scope of the administration’s targets in Venezuela have change into extra obvious.
“This started ostensibly as a navy marketing campaign towards boats that had been trafficking narcotics. That by no means appeared to be a believable clarification for the large buildup of navy functionality within the Caribbean,” Schiff stated. “It’s fairly clear this was about oil from the very starting. If this had been a legislation enforcement operation, as they declare, that was merely designed to be supported by the navy to deliver a fugitive, Nicolás Maduro, to justice—that will have been the tip of it when he confirmed up in that courtroom. However clearly it isn’t.”
Friday, Jan. 9: The U.S. Supreme Court docket is predicted to rule on Trump’s energy to impose tariffs.
Sunday, Jan. 11: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to start in Benin.
The second part of a controversial normal election held by Myanmar’s navy junta is poised to happen.
Tuesday, Jan. 13: The World Future Power Summit is ready to start in Abu Dhabi.
Venezuela’s inside ministry on Wednesday stated over 100 individuals had been killed within the U.S. raid on the nation that resulted in Maduro’s seize. Cuba has additionally stated that 32 of its residents, who had been in Venezuela on behalf of Cuba’s armed forces and inside ministry, had been killed through the operation.
A minimum of seven U.S. troops had been injured, however none had been killed, and 5 have recovered and returned to responsibility.
“I really feel like we’ve obtained highschool children enjoying Threat.”
—Republican Rep. Don Bacon relating to the Trump administration’s threats towards Greenland, describing the administration’s method as “amateurish.”
Try John’s report from Turtle Bay this week on the id disaster and powerlessness of the United Nations within the aftermath of Trump’s Venezuela strikes because the worldwide physique tries to reckon with a brazen unilateral navy motion by its greatest funder and strongest member.
You must also learn Rishi’s essay on the US pulling again from world cyberdefense at a time when world digital networks are most weak to disruption, leaving different nations involved about how you can fill that hole. It’s a part of the quilt package deal for FP’s newest print problem launched this week, which appears to be like extra broadly on the emergence of a post-American order.
