Washington — The Texas Legislature is ready to convene Monday for a particular session the place it is going to try and redraw the state’s congressional map to spice up President Trump and his allies’ efforts to keep up the GOP’s grip on the U.S. Home in subsequent 12 months’s midterm elections.
The state’s determination to recraft the boundaries of Home districts comes halfway by way of the last decade and several other years after its GOP-controlled Legislature adopted a redistricting plan within the wake of the 2020 Census.
Underneath that plan, Republicans maintain 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats, whereas Democrats management 12. (The dying of Rep. Sylvester Turner, a Democrat, has left one seat open.)
However with Republicans holding a razor-thin majority within the Home, and the danger the GOP might lose management of the chamber within the 2026 midterms, a reshaping of the congressional districts might give Mr. Trump’s celebration an edge heading into subsequent 12 months’s elections.
Mr. Trump’s political crew had been pushing Texas GOP leaders to look into redrawing the state’s congressional map, the New York Occasions reported final month. Gov. Greg Abbott confirmed the Legislature would undertake the trouble, amongst 17 different agenda gadgets, when it meets.
“I do not assume this has something to do with Texas — this has to do with Trump,” mentioned Joshua Clean, the analysis director of the Texas Politics Venture. “This has nothing to do with the interior dynamics of the state, the political trajectory of the state. That is purely about this election cycle and one particular person’s profit.”
How did we get right here?
States endure the redistricting course of after each 10-year census, when voting strains are redrawn to account for inhabitants adjustments. After the 2020 Census, Texas crafted a brand new congressional map to incorporate two new districts, bringing its complete variety of Home seats to 38.
The maps drawn by the GOP-led Texas Legislature aimed to guard Republican seats in Congress and the statehouse. Democrats flipped two congressional districts and 12 state Home seats within the 2018 midterms.
“In 2021, they spent quite a lot of effort and time ensuring they’d one of the best maps doable with the first purpose to make sure that the Republican majority was rock stable,” mentioned Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice College. “And so they created 24 of 38 districts the place there isn’t any manner, form or type {that a} Republican is dropping these districts, absent some sort of homicide indictment or a serial adulterer, and so forth.”
However the last model of the congressional map was met with criticism, and it has been challenged in courtroom. Among the many points raised by voting rights teams is that 95% of Texas’ progress has been pushed by non-White voters, however the map crafted in 2021 created extra majority-White districts.
A 3-judge panel in El Paso is at the moment contemplating a consolidated problem to the map introduced by voting rights teams, Latino voters and lawmakers. The plaintiffs argue that the brand new strains violate Part 2 of the Voting Rights Act and the 14th Modification’s Equal Safety Clause. A trial resulted in June.
Texas has a part-time Legislature, which meets for 140 days each two years. The governor has the ability to name particular classes to cowl particular matters, and the particular classes constitutionally can’t last more than 30 days. The governor can, nevertheless, name as many particular classes as he deems mandatory. After the 88th legislative session in 2023, Abbott known as 4 particular classes that stretched into December.
Redistricting is one among 18 matters that Abbott has requested the Legislature to deal with. 4 of these matters embody catastrophe aid for the Central Texas floods and bettering the state’s warning system.
“I am not satisfied that the purpose is to move the whole lot, however finally, Abbott will get the credit score for making an attempt, and the Legislature will get the credit score for what it could actually accomplish, however it’ll additionally get the blame for what it fails to do,” Clean mentioned.
Though the Democrats might depart the state to disclaim Republicans a quorum, like they did in 2021 to protest a voting invoice, it is unlikely they’d accomplish that if it meant holding up flood aid.
The place does Trump and his administration come into play?
Texas has carried out two congressional elections beneath the 2021 map. However earlier this month, the Justice Division despatched Abbott a letter alleging that a few of the districts have been racial gerrymanders that violate the Structure’s 14th Modification.
Harmeet Dhillon, who heads the Justice Division’s Civil Rights Division, particularly pinpointed 4 districts — the ninth,18th, twenty ninth and thirty third — that she mentioned represent “coalition districts” that ought to be redrawn. All three are at the moment represented by Democrats, and Turner, who died in March, represented the fourth.
Coalition districts are people who carry two or extra racial minorities collectively to make up a majority of the inhabitants, and the place voters from these teams vote collectively to elect their most popular candidate.
In her letter, Dhillon wrote that the state needed to “instantly” rectify the alleged racial gerrymanders, and if it selected to not, it was vulnerable to authorized motion by the legal professional basic.
“The congressional districts at concern are nothing greater than vestiges of an unconstitutional racially based mostly gerrymandering previous, which have to be deserted, and should now be corrected by Texas,” she wrote.
Mr. Trump seems to be on board with the recrafting of Texas’ voting boundaries. Earlier than leaving the White Home on Tuesday, the president mentioned he’s searching for a “easy redrawing” the place Republicans choose up 5 seats.
“Texas can be the largest one,” he mentioned.
However through the trial within the case involving the congressional map, state officers repeatedly mentioned they have been motivated not by race after they drew the district strains, however as an alternative pushed by politics. State Sen. Joan Huffman, a Republican who led the 2021 Senate Redistricting Committee, testified that the congressional map was “drawn blind to race” and “racial information was not thought-about in any respect through the drawing of the maps,” in line with courtroom data.
“There isn’t any authorized justification for doing this. It form of walks and talks and quacks like a political transfer,” mentioned Michael Li, a redistricting professional at New York College’s Brennan Middle for Justice. “The issue is that it is actually troublesome to get extra seats in Texas with out closely undermining the political energy of communities of shade.”
In claims of racial gerrymandering, these difficult a map have to indicate that race predominated for a way the strains have been drawn.
“This cannot be a racial gerrymander in the event that they did not contemplate race,” Li mentioned. “This can be a textbook, simple it’s-not-a-racial-gerrymander. … If you happen to did not contemplate race, it could actually’t be a racial gerrymander.”
Has Texas drawn new maps in the midst of the last decade earlier than?
A divided Texas Legislature drew up a congressional map in 2001, however two years later, in a plan engineered by then-U.S. Home Majority Chief Tom DeLay and Texas Home Speaker Tom Craddick, Republicans wished to redraw the strains to take advantage of the rising GOP majority within the state.
Fifty-one Democrats within the state Home fled to Oklahoma for 4 days, denying the Republicans the quorum they wanted to carry the redistricting plan to the ground and letting the clock run out on the common session. Then-Gov. Rick Perry known as the Legislature again for a particular session, however state Senate Democrats left the state to disclaim a quorum.
Though the Democrats remained out of state for greater than a month, they could not cease the maps from finally passing, and Republicans finally picked up 5 seats. The Supreme Court docket upheld the congressional districts in 2018.
However former Democratic Rep. Mark Strama, who ran for workplace after that spherical of redistricting, warned the trouble did have some downsides for Republicans. The drama was lined nationally, and Strama himself flipped a Central Texas district in 2005.
“Voters have been mad at each side,” Strama mentioned. “They hate all these political shenanigans. However there isn’t any query voters hate this.”
Whereas Texas has redrawn the strains of congressional districts in the midst of a decade earlier than, Li mentioned the present scenario is much from regular.
“Exterior of litigation, this can be very uncommon,” he mentioned. “And it is exceptionally uncommon — actually, I am unable to consider one other circumstance, the place a celebration drew the map, after which that very same celebration redrew the map. The place there are mid-decade redistrictings, it is often as a result of political management adjustments arms.”
Might this plan backfire?
Whereas Democrats haven’t received statewide workplace in Texas since 1994, one of the best 12 months Democrats have had on the poll prior to now twenty years was in 2018. In that midterm election, former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke got here inside three factors of GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, and Democrats flipped two congressional seats and 12 state Home seats.
Republicans have managed to quell these positive aspects and, as Jones famous, the 2024 election was a excessive level for the celebration. However the dynamics of the 2026 election might mirror these in 2018, when Democrats ran aggressive campaigns focusing on Mr. Trump and retook the Home. Any adjustments to the congressional map may not be sufficient to stem Democratic positive aspects this time round.
“If Republicans do have interaction, do go all out and check out with the purpose of flipping, say three, 4, even 5 seats as President Trump says – it is extra probably Republicans see a internet loss than a internet achieve,” Jones mentioned.
Plus, any map adopted by the GOP-led Legislature and accepted by Abbott is prone to be swiftly met with lawsuits. If a federal courtroom blocks its use, the brand new district strains could not even be in place for the 2026 midterms.
“President Trump is speaking about 5 extra seats out of Texas, and the one manner you get 5 extra seats out of Texas is if you happen to severely undermine the political energy and the political voice of communities of shade,” Li mentioned. “And that could be a Texas-sized lawsuit with doubtlessly large ramifications.”
Li mentioned the redrawing of political bounds to present Republicans a leg up within the 2026 midterm elections isn’t solely a legally dangerous transfer, however could possibly be politically perilous too.
“The essence of making an attempt to get extra seats is that it’s important to unfold your voters out extra if you happen to’re a Republican,” he mentioned. “So you may have a bunch extra districts that you just’re not profitable by 65 or 70%. You are going to have a bunch of districts that you just’re profitable by 52, 53% and in a state that’s altering as quick as Texas, that is rising as quick as Texas, that is altering demographically as quick as Texas. By 2030, these districts might look and carry out very in a different way.”
The 2020 Census confirmed that folks of shade accounted for 95% of Texas’ inhabitants progress over the prior decade. Knowledge from the U.S. Census Bureau launched final 12 months additionally confirmed that the variety of Asian People in Texas grew by practically 92,000 folks, whereas there have been greater than 91,000 new Black residents within the state.
“Once you gerrymander, you are betting that you understand what the politics of the long run will seem like,” Li mentioned. “There are numerous locations the place you may safely wager on what the politics of the long run will seem like within the nation. Texas isn’t a type of locations. It is simply altering too quick.”
Republicans have made huge positive aspects in South Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, as soon as thought-about a Democratic stronghold. However even with these GOP positive aspects — and operating on the maps drawn in 2021 — two of the three seats remained Democratic in 2024.
“Folks discuss in regards to the Rio Grande Valley as if it is someway indicative of Texas,” mentioned Clean of the Texas Politics Venture. “It is lower than 3.5% of the entire statewide vote, and it is extremely economically depressed and it is overwhelmingly Hispanic. It is probably not indicative of any a part of the state, it is indicative of its area of the nation that occurs to share a border with Mexico.”
What can Democrats do?
Democrats on Capitol Hill and within the states have lambasted Republicans for pushing to redraw congressional district strains to carry onto energy within the Home.
“Elected officers ought to earn the help of voters they hope to signify,” Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries instructed reporters Tuesday. “Republicans need a nation the place politicians select their voters, not the opposite manner round. It reeks of desperation, and we’ll do the whole lot that we will in Texas and past to reply.”
Jeffries mentioned the rationale for the particular session in Texas is to “attempt to steal the midterm elections by rigging” the state’s congressional map.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in the meantime, has steered that Democrats mount their very own partisan gerrymander. California has 52 congressional districts, and Democrats signify 43 of them.
“There are *at the moment* 9 Republicans within the California Congressional Delegation. Simply thought people would possibly wish to know that enjoyable truth,” he wrote on X on Tuesday.
Throughout an look on the podcast “Pod Save America,” Newsom accused Republicans of making an attempt to “rig the sport” as a result of they’re involved about sustaining management of the Home subsequent 12 months.
California voters accepted a constitutional modification in 2010 that handed over the duty of crafting congressional and state legislative districts to an impartial fee. However Newsom steered there are nonetheless two paths that would result in a brand new congressional map: calling a particular session of the California Legislature to place a measure on the poll for a particular election that might clear the way in which for brand spanking new Home district strains; or having the state Legislature create a brand new map beneath the concept it is coming mid-decade and never after the census.
“It ups the stakes of the redistricting struggle, with the acknowledgment that Democrats have a restricted hand to play,” Li mentioned of Texas’ determination to attract new congressional strains.
Simply 15 states have Democratic trifectas, the place they management the state legislature and the governorship. Two of these states, Colorado and Michigan, depart the drawing of political voting strains to impartial commissions like California does. Republicans are in full management in 23 states.
Plus, in different states the place Democrats management the legislature and governor’s mansions, the congressional delegations already closely skew Democratic. In Illinois, for instance, Democrats maintain 14 of its 17 Home seats. Maryland’s eight-member congressional delegation accommodates only one Republican.
