I reduce my tooth as a Center East scholar in locations comparable to Damascus, Syria; Ramallah within the West Financial institution; Ankara, Turkey; Istanbul, and Cairo. They’re cities with wealthy histories or nice political affect or each. The Persian Gulf states had been all the time an afterthought, higher left to odd-duck Europeans who spent their time learning the lineages of assorted tribes and clans all through the Arabian Peninsula. To me, that sort of work was even worse than watching cricket.
However previously decade, I’ve discovered myself within the Gulf extra ceaselessly than I had ever imagined. Don’t get me mistaken, I nonetheless want historical Cairo to antiseptic and over-air-conditioned Doha, Qatar. However the Gulf states—significantly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—have develop into extra attention-grabbing than ever. That’s as a result of, to totally different levels, they’re engaged in wide-ranging efforts to remake their economies and societies.
I reduce my tooth as a Center East scholar in locations comparable to Damascus, Syria; Ramallah within the West Financial institution; Ankara, Turkey; Istanbul, and Cairo. They’re cities with wealthy histories or nice political affect or each. The Persian Gulf states had been all the time an afterthought, higher left to odd-duck Europeans who spent their time learning the lineages of assorted tribes and clans all through the Arabian Peninsula. To me, that sort of work was even worse than watching cricket.
However previously decade, I’ve discovered myself within the Gulf extra ceaselessly than I had ever imagined. Don’t get me mistaken, I nonetheless want historical Cairo to antiseptic and over-air-conditioned Doha, Qatar. However the Gulf states—significantly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—have develop into extra attention-grabbing than ever. That’s as a result of, to totally different levels, they’re engaged in wide-ranging efforts to remake their economies and societies.
As U.S. President Donald Trump highlighted throughout his go to to the area final Could, it’s truthful to say that there’s a Gulf mannequin of improvement. But the U.S.-Israel struggle with Iran has raised severe questions on that mannequin. If the early indicators from the diplomatic maneuvering point out something, the Iranians could emerge with extra leverage within the Strait of Hormuz than ever earlier than. And Tehran would retain the means to menace its neighbors with missiles and drones.
The event mannequin that the main Gulf states have pursued goals to draw knowledgeable and investor class to locations comparable to Dubai; Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Doha; and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as a part of a broad effort at financial diversification. This contains creating facilities for superior expertise, logistics, increased training, tourism, sport, and leisure. The bases for this improvement are political stability and regional safety. The Gulf states have the previous coated. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will possible rule for a few years. As for safety, the presence of U.S. army bases appeared to maintain a lid on regional tensions.
After the Hamas assault on Israel in October 2023 and the struggle in Gaza that adopted, it was potential to see two Center Easts. The Gulf states, largely untouched by the following multifront battle, continued their specific paths of improvement. As Israelis whomped on Gaza, sought shelter in protected rooms from Houthi missiles, and decapitated Hezbollah’s management, the Gulf international locations poured cash into gigaprojects, attracted the world’s prime tech corporations, and used their very own huge sovereign wealth funds to spend money on strategic (and never so strategic) industries each at residence and overseas.
Whereas different international locations had been preventing previous fights, they had been constructing. For Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed, and Emir Tamim, conflicts in different elements of the Center East wouldn’t maintain again their improvement plans.
When Israel and the US attacked Iran in June 2025, The Gulf states got here out of the 12-day struggle comparatively unscathed. The Iranians took a shot at U.S. airbase in Al Udeid, about 25 miles west of Doha, however they inflicted little injury. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar appeared to know Iran’s capabilities and intent a lot better than Trump. Because it turned clear that one other spherical of warfare was within the offing, the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states made it plain to Iran that they weren’t events to regardless of the Individuals and Israelis had been as much as.
It didn’t matter. Within the intervening months between the June 2025 struggle and Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, the Iranians developed a plan—hit their neighbors and threaten international power provides. Over the previous 5 weeks, struggle has come residence to the Gulf: The Emiratis have been hit extra occasions than Israel, with the Iranians coaching their fireplace on power infrastructure and the UAE tech sector; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has battered Bahrain’s power and information facilities; Kuwait’s oil services have taken hits; Qatar’s necessary Ras Laffan set up has been closely broken; and Saudi Arabia’s pipelines and refineries have been common Iranian targets. All in all, the Iranians have fired hundreds of missiles and drones on the GCC states.
The phrases of the cease-fire and Iran’s 10-point peace plan—round which the administration claims to be negotiating—don’t augur nicely for the Gulf states. Within the Iranian overseas minister’s social media put up asserting the settlement to a cease-fire, one line caught out: “[S]afe passage via the Strait of Hormuz can be potential by way of coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
Regardless of Trump’s protestations that Tehran had agreed to freedom of navigation, it doesn’t appear that Iran’s leaders will so simply relinquish their new leverage over the waterway. The second of Iran’s 10 factors calls for that Iran keep management over the strait. A tolling system, which Trump appears open to exploring, would profit the Iranian regime financially, making issues worse for the Gulf states.
Earlier than the struggle began on Feb. 28, Iran’s management or partial management over the strait was the realm of hypothetical and a casus belli. Now, that management exists. If Tehran succeeds in formalizing its place, the Gulf states can be both depending on Iranian goodwill or be pressured handy over money (or bitcoin) to a rustic that launched missiles and drones at them frequently for 5 weeks.
For sure, Iran’s neighbors on the Western aspect of the Gulf will stay susceptible to its missiles and drones. Even after the cease-fire was introduced, the Iranians continued to fireplace (apparently as a result of the Israelis proceed to hit Lebanon). This menace explains why some leaders within the Gulf endorsed Trump to complete the job. He didn’t, and as a consequence, the narrative concerning the Gulf being an excellent place do enterprise and make investments is compromised.
So now what?
The cease-fire is tenuous, so there’s all the time the chance that the US would return to excessive depth fight and weaken Iran’s place, which may remedy the issues that the Gulf states now confront. However that appears unlikely. Trump appears intent on sustaining the fiction that regime change has taken place in Tehran and that the nation’s new leaders are amendable to compromise.
That leaves leaders in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha with little alternative however to deviate from their improvement plans and commit assets to hardening their cities and shopping for much more protection gear. They might even hedge a bit with Beijing like they did within the 2010s, when Individuals declared that they had been leaving the Center East and pivoting to Asia. Gulf states leaned into financial ties with China, welcomed Chinese language leaders to the area with nice fanfare, and explored buying weapons from Beijing.
No matter they do, it’ll take a very long time for the Gulf states to get better from American recklessness.
