It felt like the top of the season final Saturday, didn’t it?
The 49ers’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks wasn’t only a defeat; it was a gut-punch delivered with excessive prejudice.
With the NFC West crown and the No. 1 seed dangling proper there for the taking, the Niners had been crushed to a pulp.
It was, arguably, the only worst offensive efficiency of the Kyle Shanahan period. The machine that normally hums with ruthless effectivity appeared damaged, battered, and utterly devoid of solutions. It was sufficient to make everybody query the validity of the offensive explosion that outlined the weeks main as much as Saturday’s rump-kicking.
However earlier than you go attempting to dump your Levi’s Stadium seat licenses, let me provide this:
All of the credit score on the earth belongs to Mike Macdonald and that Seahawks protection. They’re quick. They’re violent. They’re extremely versatile. They don’t miss tackles. They don’t even trouble with sub-packages as a result of their base personnel — with a 3rd, three-level security and an elite cornerback that may additionally play linebacker higher than anybody the Niners can trot out this upcoming Sunday — run with observe stars and brawl with linemen.
They got here at San Francisco in methods NFL offenses merely don’t take into account. How do you put together for Nick Emmanwori? Wasn’t this league tailor-made to present the offense the benefit? Why does that protection have the higher hand?
The dangerous information? The highway to the Tremendous Bowl virtually actually includes a rematch with these guys.
The excellent news? There isn’t one other staff within the NFC playoffs that may do what Seattle does.
Take the Niners’ Wild Card spherical opponent this weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles.
On paper, the Eagles boast the second-best protection within the convention. And they’re, certainly, formidable.
However activate the tape, and a extra particular image emerges. The Eagles are exceptionally prone to precisely the sort of soccer Shanahan needs to play.
It begins with Vic Fangio. The legendary defensive coordinator is cussed about his philosophy. He places greater than six defenders within the field on the lowest price in your complete NFL — a staggering 13 p.c lower than some other staff. He is aware of it is a passing league, and so he’s set as much as cease you from throwing the ball in opposition to him.
However we all know that Shanahan will take him up on that supply. That is the postseason in spite of everything; passing is a final resort.
Alternatives on the bottom for the 49ers on Sunday are evident, even to me: The Eagles’ line of defense is coached to fireside off the ball and penetrate the backfield, and it’s paired with lighter linebackers — particularly Zach Baun. That’s a recipe for catastrophe in opposition to a disciplined, bodily run sport.
In six video games this season in opposition to playoff opponents, Philadelphia has allowed 162 yards per sport. The Bears had two 100-yard rushers and piled up 281 on Black Friday.
Make no mistake, Philadelphia is an elite cross protection. When opposing offenses are within the shotgun, the formation the Niners desire, the Eagles boast the second-best cross protection within the league per NFL knowledge.
However hand the ball off from that very same shotgun formation? The Eagles plummet to the ninth-worst protection within the NFL in EPA per play. Go underneath middle, the place the run menace is much more visceral, and the Eagles are merely a “good” protection — removed from the “nice” unit Seattle fielded Saturday.
So, except Fangio needs to vary how he traces his guys up (I’m not holding my breath), the chess match might flip in Shanahan’s favor.
The Eagles’ protection flows in unison, which appears fairly till it doesn’t. They’re liable to overpursuit. Counter runs and read-options have been their kryptonite all season.
After which there may be the movement.
In opposition to Seattle, Shanahan’s trademark pre-snap window dressing meant completely nothing. The Seahawks’ disciplined defenders didn’t flinch. They didn’t chase ghosts. They stayed house, gap-true, and made each single deal with out there to them.
Philadelphia is totally different. The Eagles’ line of defense will gap-shift with movement. They react. They modify. And that’s the place they are often manipulated.
This week, Kyle Juszczyk’s “sprint” movement out of the backfield may be essentially the most important tactic within the playbook. “Juice” can create manufactured confusion. He can pressure a niche shift that opens a lane earlier than the ball is even snapped.
And if Juszczyk can muddy the waters for these aggressive linebackers, and if Christian McCaffrey nonetheless has burst out of the backfield, the 49ers’ offense isn’t simply going to stabilize, it’ll discover its footing.
Saturday was a nightmare, however Seattle is a unicorn. The remainder of the NFC? They’re simply soccer groups with flaws ready to be exploited.
And no one exploits a flaw fairly like a cornered Shanahan.
