In a brazen transfer, Republicans in Texas have got down to redraw the state’s congressional map — an effort to spice up President Trump and the GOP within the 2026 midterm elections.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened to reply in sort, gerrymandering blue California to present Democrats a raise and offset the Lone Star lunge for energy.
That might imply scrapping the political strains drawn by an unbiased residents fee, which voters created almost 20 years in the past to take line-drawing away from the state’s politicians.
Our columnists Mark Z. Barabak and Anita Chabria disagree strongly, however amicably, on the knowledge and implications of Newsom’s threatened transfer. Right here they hash it out.
Barabak: Gavin Newsom — or the forty eighth president of the USA, as he fancies himself — is maybe second solely to Donald Trump relating to browsing a political wave. And so it’s with redistricting and retribution.
It might set partisan Democratic hearts to racing — which is a part of Newsom’s intent — but it surely’s a foul transfer for all kinds of causes. Not least, ignoring the need of California voters, who resoundingly informed the state’s self-dealing politicians no mas!
I perceive the fight-fire-with-fire perspective that animates partisan assist for the get-even discuss by 48, er, Newsom. However the hazard is inflicting much more widespread injury.
Through the years, plenty of zeitgeist-y strikes by the headline-hungry Newsom have come to naught. That is one other that belongs on the scrap heap.
Chabria: I agree that the Vegas odds are on the aspect of this tit-for-tat being nothing greater than a partisan headline-grabber.
However.
There’s a bigger and extra vital query right here that boils right down to how severely you consider our democracy is in jeopardy.
If, Mark — as I believe you might be inclined to at the very least hope — this too shall cross and our subsequent election can be free and truthful, nonetheless it could land, then the concept of gerrymandering our congressional districts might be nothing however appalling. That is very true in California, one of many few states by which the folks have voted to make sure our electoral maps are drawn with nonpartisan equity in thoughts.
If, like me, nonetheless, you assume we’re on a knife’s fringe of dropping our democracy to authoritarianism — or at the very least an oligarchy the place hate is wielded for energy — then gerrymandering turns into a type of peaceable resistance.
Newsom lately stated, “We will act holier-than-thou. We will sit on the sidelines, discuss the way in which the world ought to be, or we are able to acknowledge the existential nature that’s this second” — which provides you an concept of his pondering, and admittedly, mine.
I’ll dive into that extra, however possibly that’s the place we begin. Do you assume our democracy is sound and what we’re witnessing is only a interval of discontent that can cross with out lasting hurt?
Barabak: I positive hope so.
I yield to nobody in my disgust with Trump and concern about what he’s doing. He’s authoritarian. Autocratic. Smug. Anti-democratic. And that’s not even getting previous the letter “A.”
However actions just like the one Newsom threatens on redistricting don’t happen in a vacuum, which is vital to keep in mind. Brief-term tactical positive factors may end up in long-term ache.
As an illustration: In 2013 Democrats had been so upset about Republican blockading of President Obama’s judicial and govt department nominations that Senate Majority Chief Harry Reid invoked the “nuclear choice.” At Reid’s behest, the Senate narrowly voted to alter its guidelines and disallow the filibustering of presidential nominees.
The result’s Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth, Well being and Human Providers Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a complete clown automotive of Trump Cupboard members.
And whereas Democrats explicitly stated the rule change wouldn’t apply to the Supreme Courtroom, as soon as the door was open Republicans shouldered their means by and eradicated the filibuster for these nominees as effectively. The result’s Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett and the excessive court docket’s 6-3 Trump-coddling conservative super-majority.
Those that struggle fireplace with fireplace threat getting badly burned.
If Democrats need a struggle over redistricting, Republicans have much more methods to gerrymander and doubtlessly achieve seats — in locations equivalent to Florida, Missouri and Ohio — than Democrats.
Chabria: Little doubt. However, and that is as little as it will get, I’ll pay the value of a Hegseth, possibly even two, if it actually does save democracy. Right here’s the fact: The one hope of a Congress that can curb Trump by the democratic course of is shifting at the very least some energy to Democrats within the 2026 election.
If Texas Republicans, below stress from Trump, handle to redraw as many as 5 new GOP-leaning seats — and it doesn’t blow up of their faces, which it might — the transfer would increase the probabilities the Home stays a Trump entourage and the prospect of authoritarianism goes from brush fireplace to wildfire.
The reality is that gerrymandering is much extra frequent than most notice. Kevin Johnson, an knowledgeable with the Election Reformers Community, wrote lately that “Within the Nineties, solely 40% of the seats within the Home of Representatives had been thought-about a positive factor for one celebration or the opposite, now that determine is 83%.” That’s as a result of most states gerrymander.
Actually, the one actually aggressive races happen in states equivalent to California which have unbiased, nonpartisan of us drawing the election maps. So to play satan’s advocate, we’ve already misplaced to gerrymandering within the U.S. and California simply doesn’t comprehend it.
That’s an issue that may very well be solved if a future president and Congress needed to take action. But it surely requires attending to a future president and Congress. I all the time put this on the report: I care neither about Republicans or Democrats. I care about democracy.
If California gerrymandered, helped flip Congress into an actual examine in opposition to authoritarianism and left fixing gerrymandering for later, wouldn’t it actually be so unhealthy?
Barabak: Your crystal ball should be much less hazy than mine.
I’m not all satisfied that even a achieve of 5 Texas Home seats would assure GOP management of the Home. (And let me put this on the report: I believe what Trump and his Texas handmaidens are doing is completely reprehensible.)
Since World Struggle II, the out-party has picked up a mean of greater than two dozen Home seats in midterm elections. Democrats want a achieve of three to grab management.
There’s even, as you recommend, an opportunity Republicans’ political pigginess backfires by spreading their voters too skinny, creating districts that Democrats would possibly decide up if there’s a sufficiently big blue wave.
Talking of strikes backfiring, it’s no positive wager Californians would approve Newsom’s gerrymander effort if he put it to a vote in a particular election to override the fee.
Surrendering energy to politicians is a reasonably large ask in as we speak’s atmosphere. And it’s not as if Newsom has a deep reservoir of goodwill to attract upon; simply have a look at his ballot numbers.
He went to South Carolina to, allegedly, marketing campaign for Democratic Home candidates, though the state hasn’t a single aggressive contest. California has about 10 races that look to be at the very least considerably aggressive — but you don’t see fellow Democrats clamoring for Newsom to drop by their districts.
Chabria: I don’t have a crystal ball. What I do have is a deep effectively of foreboding, however an optimist’s hope that your blue wave, power-to-the-people state of affairs occurs.
Within the meantime, Newsom stated Friday that redistricting “is just not a bluff,” and he’s exploring a number of methods to do it.
On that checklist is a authorized gamble. Our present redistricting legal guidelines say maps need to be drawn pretty each 10 years, after the census — however doesn’t particularly say we are able to’t gerrymander in between. Newsom is principally suggesting dishonest with a sundown clause: Instant redistricting that advantages Democrats, however that will expire when the common redistricting occurs.
It’s drastic, and could wind up tied up in courts indefinitely.
However I’m annoyed that politicians, pundits and even common folks proceed to deal with this administration as simply politics as regular, and I recognize that Newsom is just not, even when a part of it’s pushed by private achieve for a 2028 presidential bid. Maybe our democracy has been on the brink earlier than, however that makes this cliff no much less harmful. We the folks must assume exterior of our common reactions to Republicans vs. Democrats or cultural wars or partisan divides or any of the way more innocent stressors which have plagued our system up to now.
What I like about Newsom’s jab is that it forces us to have conversations like this one, and ask ourselves how can we struggle in a different way?
As a result of this struggle is totally different.
Barabak: This will sound Pollyannaish, however I believe there’s nothing about these frightful instances that may’t be remedied on the poll field.
Texas could have a aggressive U.S. Senate race subsequent 12 months. If Texans don’t just like the ruthlessness of GOP lawmakers and their energy seize, they’ll ship a message by electing a Democrat, serving to the celebration overcome the percentages and take management of the chamber. That might put a examine on Trump, no matter whether or not Republicans dangle onto the Home.
It’s within the arms of voters. If democracy goes to be protected and preserved, it’s as much as them. Not scheming politicians.
