2025 was a yr of geopolitical tumult, and one particular person appeared on the middle of all of it: U.S. President Donald Trump. From tariffs and the commerce warfare to making an attempt to play peacemaker in a number of world conflicts, Trump was ubiquitous within the headlines and within the minds of overseas leaders making an attempt to determine the right way to navigate a really totally different White Home.
On the most recent episode of FP Dwell, I regarded again on the yr that was with Peter Baker, the New York Instances’s chief White Home correspondent. Subscribers can watch the complete dialogue on the video field atop this web page or obtain the FP Dwell podcast. What follows here’s a flippantly edited and condensed transcript.
Ravi Agrawal: You’ve lined six U.S. presidents, together with Trump in his first time period. However virtually one yr in, this second time period actually feels totally different. As somebody who covers the White Home day by day, how a lot of an outlier has 2025 been?
Peter Baker: Trump 2.0 is Trump 1.0 in some methods however on steroids. A number of the issues that he talked about doing or exploring within the first time period—or tried however did not do or was dissuaded from doing—he’s now doing and in spades. One of many issues he discovered was that it issues who’s round you. Most of the folks he surrounded himself with in his first time period considered their jobs as preserving him from going off the rails, from doing issues they thought have been reckless—or unlawful even. This time period, he’s surrounded by individuals who not solely agree with him however are egging him on, enabling him, and empowering him and need to serve his wishes. So all of the issues that they toy with, he’s now pushing ahead—and with nice depth.
RA: In coverage phrases, which three or 4 concern areas have emerged as the important thing differentiators between Trump 1.0 and a pair of.0?
PB: The Nationwide Safety Technique drafted by former U.S. Nationwide Safety Advisor H.R. McMaster in Trump’s first time period was a comparatively typical articulation of a great-power world by which we have been in competitors with Russia and China.
This Nationwide Safety Technique, which simply got here out a couple of weeks in the past, is radically totally different and but far more in tune with how Trump thinks, which is that Russia and China are our friends or buddies and Europe is the actual unhealthy man and that civilizational erasure in Europe is the actual problem, not Russian aggression or Chinese language financial hegemony.
RA: The unusual factor there, Peter, is that again when Trump first grew to become president in 2017, there was a way that Trump was recalibrating U.S. coverage towards China. He noticed Obama as an excessive amount of of a dove on China and needed to appropriate that. It appears as if, after a number of years of hawkishness in D.C. towards China, Trump in 2025 is showing far more dovish than many people anticipated.
PB: I might agree with you. In the event you had me put collectively an inventory of the highest 5 issues that stunned me this yr about Trump’s return to workplace, that’s certainly one of them. I assumed he would come again a bit extra weapons blazing at China as a result of it’s been a helpful goal for him in loads of methods. And in some methods, he helped forge that bipartisan recalibration in Washington, the notion that we’re not going to make China one other United States by integrating them into the world financial group. That didn’t grow to be a profitable technique when it comes to moderating their habits and democratizing their nation, and Trump led the best way, and lots of people on each side of the aisle didn’t agree with all the pieces he mentioned or did or how he did it however agreed together with his idea of the case.
Coming again this time period and seeming to put off China has been stunning. Clearly, they’re nonetheless combating about tariffs. There may be nonetheless some rigidity within the relationship. However he simply undid among the controls that former President Joe Biden put in place on expertise, which stunned folks, and he has not been utilizing China because the goal of his outrage in the identical manner he did within the first time period.
RA: What else has stunned you protecting the White Home this yr?
PB: Frankly, virtually none of it must be a shock. A number of issues which were surprising are nonetheless not stunning. Trump’s reprisals and retribution in opposition to his enemies, his hostility towards NATO and European allies, his prolific use of tariffs, his “on the market” character—all these are issues we shouldn’t be stunned by.
Folks have been stunned—and I used to be a bit of stunned, I suppose—by how intense and excessive it was at instances and the way profitable it has been in loads of methods. He’s executed extra to perform the issues he needed to do than many individuals imagined he would be capable of: demolishing the U.S. Company for Worldwide Improvement, chopping off NPR and PBS, eliminating Voice of America and Radio Liberty. Conservatives have talked about doing this stuff for years and by no means actually did. Trump is available in and decides, let’s not trouble with Congress. Let’s simply snap our fingers, signal a couple of paperwork, and inform folks to get out of their workplaces. And it was profitable. Lots of people don’t like the thought of it and definitely criticize the substance of it, however as a matter of accomplishment, he’s proved that he can do issues that individuals thought a president couldn’t do.
RA: Round about this time final yr, Ukrainians weren’t notably downbeat about Trump coming to workplace, partly as a result of that they had gotten a bit bored with Biden. They felt as if Biden was giving them sufficient to only about survive however not win the warfare. They felt that Trump 1.0 gave them javelins and that Trump 2.0 could be extra decisive of their route.
One of many key moments that outlined 2025 was in February, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got here to the White Home and acquired into an argument with Trump on reside tv. What was it like protecting that, and the way a lot of an outlier was it?
PB: It was a rare day. I used to be within the White Home briefing room when it occurred. We didn’t see it reside as a result of they pretaped it, so when the pool reporters got here again to the briefing room, their heads have been exploding. They have been whispering to us, wait until you see what simply occurred as a result of it was so extraordinary.
Once more, in some methods all the pieces is surprising and never stunning with Trump. We knew that his fixation with Ukraine went again to his first time period. It acquired him impeached in some methods as a result of he had this concept that Ukraine was in opposition to him. And he purchased into the Russian concept that Ukraine’s not likely a rustic. He even advised Petro Poroshenko, who was Zelensky’s predecessor as president of Ukraine, as soon as that his nation’s not likely a rustic, which is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s line. We additionally knew that Zelensky has an edgy character and that Biden and his folks have been additionally at instances irritated by Zelensky for not being grateful sufficient. However they didn’t do it in public, they usually definitely didn’t have the open disparagement and badgering and berating that we noticed within the Oval Workplace that day. I’ve by no means seen something like that with a president and a visiting overseas chief, and I’ve been doing this since 1996.
RA: Proper after that assembly, I wrote an article about how we have been witnessing a actuality TV presidency.
Choosing up on two different TV moments of world leaders coming to the White Home—one is British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who performed it very well by flattering Trump with a letter from the king inviting him to one more state go to to the U.Ok., saying he could be the first-ever particular person to come back to 2 state visits. Trump was visibly happy. One other chief, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, thought he would be capable of recreation Trump. Reportedly, forward of the assembly, he talked up how he had studied Trump and would be capable of cope with him as somebody who had handled every kind of conditions in South Africa and within the area. However he was shocked by Trump, who performed a video alleging that there’s a white genocide in South Africa, and that actually upended that relationship. So leaders have a combined document in making an attempt to determine the right way to cope with Trump.
PB: You’re completely proper. In the event you put collectively a mixtape of all these overseas chief visits, it’s important to embrace the scene of Ramaphosa saying, hey, I didn’t convey you a aircraft, and Trump saying, nicely, I might have taken it—referring to how Qatar gave him a aircraft price $200 million to $400 million. I don’t know if that beats an invite by King Charles to a state dinner, but it surely definitely is taking part in that recreation.
Within the first time period, there was a little bit of one-upmanship with this. The Japanese created a “President’s Cup” that he may preside over and ship when he came visiting, South Korea took him to the Demilitarized Zone, and French President Emmanuel Macron took him to the Bastille Day navy parade. Every world chief tried to assume what they may do for Trump that will attraction to his showman intuition, his ego, his self-importance. That’s additionally one thing that I hear ambassadors right here in Washington speak to one another about, buying and selling concepts and options.
RA: You’ve lined so many presidents. How salient has overseas coverage been on this presidency up to now, vis-à-vis different presidencies, and why?
PB: It’s been a bit of bit greater than folks anticipated on this first yr of his second time period. For an America First man, he appears to be targeted rather a lot on what’s occurring abroad and fixing wars, even when that’s distorted in loads of methods—he’s undoubtedly targeted on getting the Nobel [Peace] Prize. You’d even have to incorporate, on my record of 5 most stunning issues, his territorial ambitions, though he hasn’t actually adopted by way of on them, when it comes to Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal—even suggesting that America would take over Gaza, which I can’t think about any American president desirous to have accountability for. His focus abroad has been a bit of stunning for folks. Even his chief of workers, Susie Wiles, in a now well-known set of interviews with Self-importance Truthful, mentioned she needs him speaking extra about affordability and fewer about Saudi Arabia.
However loads of second-term presidents, possibly not fairly this early, get lured into the foreign-policy space as a result of it feels extra historic. These are world affairs. This makes you an enormous in the event you’re striding throughout the worldwide stage, making peace, and coping with different overseas leaders. You even have far more latitude than within the home entrance. There’s a restrict to how a lot you are able to do with out Congress taking part. Frankly, Trump hasn’t used Congress a lot in any respect this yr to realize home coverage—all of his home coverage has been by way of govt orders. So overseas coverage is of course interesting for a second-term president, and he appears to have gotten there sooner than loads of them.
RA: In the event you needed to give you an animating precept for this presidency and what it means for the world, what would that be? Is it a way that Trump actually cares about his legacy? Is it that we’re getting into an period of plutocracy or perhaps a kleptocracy? Is it a race for important minerals, Western hemispheric dominance, the Monroe Doctrine—what animates Trump?
PB: There’s no query that economics is true there on the high of the record, each for the nation and for his personal private household. Definitely, when he talks about Ukraine, he talks about it when it comes to uncommon minerals and restoring financial relations with Russia. The concept by by some means restoring financial relations, Russia goes to be transformative or significant to the USA economic system is laughable. Anyone who’s spending time in Russia is aware of we didn’t have a lot of an financial relationship with them even when issues have been good.
There’s additionally the profiteering off of the White Home. We’ve by no means seen something fairly prefer it. His household is operating around the globe, making hundreds of thousands of, billions of {dollars} by way of crypto and offers with the Saudis, the Qataris, and so forth. They pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founding father of Binance, who had been charged with crimes right here in the USA. He occurs to be in enterprise with the agency that the president’s household and buddies are concerned with. That’s one thing we’ve simply by no means seen earlier than.
However in the event you’re searching for a bigger overarching doctrine—a Trump doctrine, if you’ll—he doesn’t assume in these phrases precisely. He’s not an mental. However he appears to have a Nineteenth-century Congress of Vienna view of the world: Huge gamers and massive powers determine huge points, and all people else is secondary. In his view, that’s the USA, Russia, and China. It appears as if he believes within the spheres of influences, within the sense that China might be all of the issues it needs to be in Asia; Russia might be what it needs to be in Europe, at the least Japanese Europe; and the USA shall be accountable for the Western Hemisphere. His method to Venezuela suggests a extra aggressive and assertive American dominance than he performs in different components of the world that he doesn’t appear to care an excessive amount of about. With out making an attempt to learn his thoughts, it does really feel as if we’re on this new great-power second.
RA: You lined Putin’s rise in Moscow while you have been a overseas correspondent there. Listening to you describe Trump’s view of the world, and carving it up the best way nice powers did and possibly will do, how do you assume somebody like Putin watches that from afar, and what’s his takeaway?
PB: This fits Putin as a result of, in impact, Trump is saying that Russia issues and Ukraine doesn’t. Russia’s a serious energy; Ukraine isn’t necessary. It’s their neighbor—allow them to do what they need there.
Michael Hirsh wrote a bit for Overseas Coverage saying, in impact, Putin has already gained. Putin seems to be at Trump and sees a man that he can do enterprise with as a result of Trump isn’t going to offer him grief about democracy, human rights, or asserting himself in Japanese Europe. Trump is risky and unpredictable, which isn’t one thing Putin essentially likes, however I feel Putin feels as if time is on his aspect.
RA: You have been additionally based mostly in Jerusalem, and the U.S.-Israel relationship has been one other huge story this yr. What’s Trump’s stance on the Israel-Gaza battle net-net? He mentioned so many outrageous issues about Gaza, such because the Riviera plan you talked about, however he additionally was instrumental in pushing by way of the hostage-prisoner alternate and the peace deal, and getting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar’s prime minister for the assault on Sept. 9. All of this comes amid an actual shift in American attitudes towards Israel and Palestine. As somebody who’s protecting the White Home daily, what’s your sense of what Trump means to the U.S.-Israel relationship?
PB: It’s very sophisticated, clearly. In Trump’s first time period, he offered himself as Israel’s finest good friend ever. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem, acknowledged Israel’s management over Golan Heights, closed down the Palestinian workplace in Washington, lower off support to the Palestinians, and principally produced, by way of [son-in-law] Jared Kushner, a peace plan that didn’t go wherever however was definitely tilted in Israel’s favor. The Abraham Accords on the very finish moved Israel nearer towards a extra regular diplomatic relationship with its neighbors.
Within the second time period, it’s not fairly as easy. I feel he acquired bored with Netanyahu by the tip of his first time period and was actually offended at Netanyahu when he congratulated Joe Biden after he was elected. That was a no-no in Trump’s ebook. He has been prepared, on this first yr of his second time period, to place stress on Netanyahu often to do issues that Netanyahu may not need to do or may not have had the pliability to do together with his right-wing coalition with out Trump’s stress. The query is how far Trump is prepared to take it. He did dealer that Gaza cease-fire. He mentioned on nationwide tv that he’s brokered peace for the primary time in 3,000 years within the Center East. Clearly, this isn’t true and overstates the that means of the cease-fire, however the cease-fire was necessary after two years of terrible warfare and acquired the final of the hostages out.
The query is the place he takes it from right here. Is there a “Nixon in China” situation by which Trump, who does have credibility with the pro-Israeli group, can push ahead a extra sustainable peace plan that may really get the Palestinian-Israeli battle nearer to decision, if not all the best way there? I don’t know if he needs to or not, and his personal workers is pulling it again a bit of bit—Susie Wiles within the Self-importance Truthful interview mentioned that she thinks he doesn’t perceive that his personal folks, that means MAGA, aren’t actually completely satisfied once they see him standing subsequent to Netanyahu. In order that’s a brand new rigidity that didn’t exist within the first time period.
