Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s South Asia Transient.
The highlights this week: Pakistan ups its engagement within the Center East, new U.S. ambassadors to Bangladesh and India assume their posts, and a promising political candidate rises in Nepal.
Pakistan’s Excessive-Stakes MENA Play
Pakistan is stepping up its engagement within the Center East and North Africa (MENA).
Final Friday, Reuters reported that Pakistan is near finalizing a $1.5 billion weapons cope with Sudan, following studies final month of a separate $4 billion arms package deal with the Libyan Nationwide Military (LNA). Pakistan can be negotiating a brand new arms cope with longtime ally Saudi Arabia, with whom it lately inked a mutual protection treaty. There are indications that one other shut accomplice, Turkey, may quickly be a part of that pact. Moreover, Pakistan has expressed curiosity in becoming a member of a global stabilization mission in Gaza.
With current developments throughout the MENA area consuming world consideration, Pakistan is leveraging its geographic proximity and robust ties with key states to make a case for its strategic relevance.
There are numerous potential motivations for Islamabad’s outreach. Curiosity in Gaza probably displays a need to strengthen ties with Washington. The arms offers—lots of which middle on fighter jets—goal to capitalize on the Pakistan Air Drive’s spectacular efficiency in final Might’s battle with India. Islamabad may hope to counter India’s affect within the Center East and compensate for its issue forging deep partnerships in its personal neighborhood.
Although Pakistan’s MENA play may bolster its credentials as an rising internet safety supplier, it additionally dangers entanglement with geopolitical rivalries it has lengthy sought to keep away from. Pakistan has shut ties with each Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, however arms transfers to Sudan may embroil Pakistan of their tensions over the Sudanese civil conflict. Bringing Turkey into the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia pact is equally dangerous, provided that these nations have backed opposing sides in Libya (although in current months Ankara has signaled a coverage shift and pursued deeper engagement with the LNA).
One other factor of Pakistan’s MENA play is its try to mediate U.S.-Iran tensions, which yielded modest outcomes final summer time and was nicely obtained by Washington. Some analysts have urged Islamabad to revive these efforts to assist forestall potential U.S. navy motion in Iran, the place it has robust incentives to stop escalation.
Whereas Pakistan and Iran preserve typically cordial ties, with a number of high-level visits during the last yr, the connection is fragile. A quick navy conflict in 2024 highlighted persistent considerations over cross-border militancy and Pakistan’s alliance with Saudi Arabia. Rising ties with Washington additionally gained’t sit nicely with Tehran, limiting Islamabad’s leverage as a mediator.
Pakistan has lengthy sought to mission itself as a impartial actor within the Center East whereas shielding itself from regional instability, even because it protects its sizable industrial pursuits and enormous expatriate inhabitants, significantly within the Gulf.
As Islamabad deepens its footprint on this risky area, it might want to steadiness its safety partnership ambitions with cautious danger administration. Given ongoing tensions with Afghanistan and India and the intense terrorism challenges it faces at house, Pakistan can sick afford new sources of instability additional afield.
What We’re Following
New U.S. ambassadors. The brand new U.S. ambassadors to Bangladesh and India assumed their posts this previous week—and their backgrounds are as completely different because the relationships they are going to be overseeing.
The envoy to Bangladesh, Brent Christensen, is a seasoned diplomat who was beforehand posted to the nation and is aware of it nicely. In distinction, the envoy to India, Sergio Gor, is a robust political determine in Washington, although he lacks diplomatic and regional expertise. He’ll double as U.S. particular envoy for South and Central Asia.
U.S.-Bangladesh ties are modest however cordial. Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to workplace, the 2 sides have held a collection of high-level engagements and carried out a number of joint navy workouts. With few main factors of friction, Christensen’s expertise and robust fame in Dhaka needs to be good for the connection.
In the meantime, U.S.-India ties are in disaster. Tensions over tariffs, India’s relationship with Russia, and rising U.S. engagement with Pakistan have eroded belief in New Delhi. But Gor struck an optimistic tone throughout his Senate affirmation hearings, praising the U.S.-India partnership. In a speech Monday, he additionally introduced that India could be invited to affix Pax Silica, a synthetic intelligence provide chain initiative.
Given Gor’s political clout throughout the Trump administration, his pro-India stance is a optimistic signal. Nonetheless, rebuilding the belief that Washington has squandered in New Delhi might be a formidable problem.
U.S.-India commerce talks. U.S. officers have indicated that commerce talks with India are ongoing, with additional discussions going down this week. Months of negotiations have up to now failed to cut back the 50 % U.S. tariffs on Indian items, among the many highest imposed on any nation.
Final week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick implied that India might have missed its greatest likelihood to finalize an settlement, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi declined to name Trump to seal the deal final yr—an account New Delhi disputes.
Complicating issues additional, a current bipartisan invoice within the U.S. Senate would impose whopping 500 % tariffs on nations importing Russian power. If enacted, it might be a large blow to commerce talks. India has already lowered its Russian oil purchases since new U.S. sanctions have been launched in November, and New Delhi probably believes it has met U.S. calls for on this respect.
This leaves New Delhi in a tough political place: reluctant to supply additional concessions to an administration that has badly angered the Indian public, but underneath continued U.S. strain to open its closely protected agricultural sector—one other demand fraught with home political danger.
New political platform in Bangladesh. Earlier this week, a bunch of former members of Bangladesh’s Nationwide Citizen Social gathering (NCP)—lots of them younger leaders of the 2024 mass rebellion that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—introduced a brand new political platform. The group has not stated whether or not the initiative, set to formally launch Friday, will turn into a political occasion. Nevertheless it has emphasised its need to interrupt from conventional occasion constructions, together with by means of a rotating management mannequin meant to distribute energy extra evenly.
The brand new initiative is a blow to the NCP. Whereas lots of its coverage positions resonate with the general public, the occasion should deal with the huge sources and entrenched base of the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP), the clear favourite for the upcoming February elections.
Regardless of its emphasis on new leaders and events, the NCP lately fashioned an electoral alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, a long-established Islamist occasion. Whereas a Jamaat-led alliance might pose the strongest problem to the BNP, unseating the occasion might be tough.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Underneath the Radar
With Nepal’s March elections approaching, Balendra Shah is a determine to observe. A former rapper and the present mayor of Kathmandu, Shah has his sights set on turning into prime minister. Late final month, he fashioned an alliance with one other unconventional political determine, Rabi Lamichhane—a tv host who based the Rastriya Swatantra Social gathering (RSP) in 2022.
Collectively, they’re betting that public urge for food for youthful, nontraditional management will give the RSP an electoral increase. Whereas Lamichhane, 51, isn’t younger, he attracts robust assist from youthful voters regardless of ongoing authorized challenges tied to fraud allegations.
At 35, Shah is best positioned to be a youth candidate. What makes his story particularly fascinating is that he’s contesting the election from a Kathmandu constituency lengthy dominated by KP Sharma Oli, the prime minister ousted in mass protests final yr. Shah was floated as a potential interim prime minister and performed a job in forming the interim authorities, additional elevating his profile.
Shah can be a little bit of a paradox: Regardless of his superstar standing, he doesn’t talk a lot with the general public and the media, relying largely on his personal social media. Supporters argue this helps him keep away from overpromising to voters, however the method dangers hurting him on the polls by making him seem aloof and out of contact.
