The most recent Israeli and U.S. struggle on Iran started with airstrikes on the house and places of work of Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei. The premise gave the impression to be that Khamenei’s sudden elimination would pose a dire menace to the present ruling system. The aim could be to realize what occurred in Libya after Muammar al-Qaddafi or in Syria after Bashar al-Assad, the place regimes collapsed as quickly as their leaders have been now not in energy. In these methods, the state’s future was tied to a single individual.
However Iran’s historical past and method to survival are completely different. Few modern governments focus as a lot seen authority in a single workplace as Iran does in that of the supreme chief. Non secular legitimacy, command of the armed forces, and supreme political arbitration converge there.
The most recent Israeli and U.S. struggle on Iran started with airstrikes on the house and places of work of Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei. The premise gave the impression to be that Khamenei’s sudden elimination would pose a dire menace to the present ruling system. The aim could be to realize what occurred in Libya after Muammar al-Qaddafi or in Syria after Bashar al-Assad, the place regimes collapsed as quickly as their leaders have been now not in energy. In these methods, the state’s future was tied to a single individual.
However Iran’s historical past and method to survival are completely different. Few modern governments focus as a lot seen authority in a single workplace as Iran does in that of the supreme chief. Non secular legitimacy, command of the armed forces, and supreme political arbitration converge there.
But visibility shouldn’t be confused with fragility. The workplace rests atop a dense community of establishments designed not merely to serve the chief however to constrain him, monitor him, and, if needed, outlast him. The Islamic Republic isn’t just a private regime with spiritual language. It’s a revolutionary system that has invested closely in planning for management adjustments. When below stress, its construction is designed to tug collectively fairly than collapse.
Iran’s political habits can’t be understood with out recognizing how deeply its ruling elite reads historical past. The Iranian state has skilled repeated intervals of political vacuum over the centuries, and its political creativeness stays outlined by them. Each disaster is measured towards earlier collapses, whether or not consciously or instinctively.
Despite the fact that Jafari Shiite legislation doesn’t settle for analogies, Iran’s leaders typically use historical past as a information, nearly routinely. Occasions corresponding to the autumn of the Qajar dynasty, the Safavid collapse after Esfahan’s seize, the chaos after Nader Shah’s dying, and the civil wars following Karim Khan Zand’s dying all taught the identical lesson: When there isn’t any clear chief, the nation dangers falling aside.
For many who led the 1979 revolution, issues with management change weren’t simply concepts—they have been actual warnings from historical past. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini didn’t remove the supreme authority; as an alternative, he made it a part of the system. The extraordinary debates of 1979 about methods to keep away from previous patterns of collapse led to new solutions in Iran’s structure: Every main physique was created to unravel a selected threat uncovered by historical past.
The Guardian Council was shaped to protect towards political drift and to maintain legal guidelines according to Islamic ideas. The Meeting of Consultants took on the duty of choosing and supervising the supreme chief, to forestall a focus of energy with out oversight. The Expediency Council was established to resolve institutional impasse, making certain the system may proceed to operate even when high-level disagreements arose. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the intelligence businesses have been meant to safe the revolution internally and externally, checking each international threats and home unrest.
This deliberate community of overlapping our bodies was designed not simply so as to add layers however to supply resilience: If one half failed, others may step up. The goal was to ensure the nation wouldn’t depend on only one individual to outlive. Khomeini put it merely: Conserving the Islamic Republic protected is extra necessary than defending anybody individual, irrespective of how necessary. This mind-set nonetheless shapes how leaders act.
The system confronted its first large check early on. After President Abolhassan Banisadr was impeached, each President Mohammad Ali Rajai and Prime Minister Mohammad Javad Bahonar have been elected after which killed inside a month. Nonetheless, in lower than 50 days, Khamenei turned president, displaying the regime may rapidly discover new leaders throughout a disaster. Eight years later, after Khomeini died, the identical method labored once more. Khamenei, who didn’t have Khomeini’s charisma or prime spiritual rank, turned supreme chief as a result of the establishments agreed, not as a result of it was anticipated.
The principle message throughout the Iranian state was clear: The system should outlast anybody individual. And up to date occasions have proven this precept once more. When President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in 2024, the structure’s guidelines have been adopted instantly. Energy shifted easily, elections occurred rapidly, and the system stayed secure. As an alternative of inflicting chaos, the disaster acted as a observe run for dealing with sudden management adjustments.
Iran’s structure explicitly anticipates sudden management loss. Article 111 stipulates that if the supreme chief dies or turns into incapacitated, authority transfers instantly to an interim council composed of the president, the pinnacle of the judiciary, and a senior cleric chosen by means of the Expediency Council. The aim is to maintain management regular, to not change the political system. Importantly, the structure lists the {qualifications} for the subsequent chief however doesn’t restrict the selection to a strict spiritual path.
This flexibility permits succession to be a strategy of negotiation and stability, not only a spiritual resolution. There is no such thing as a set deadline for selecting a brand new chief. If there’s a struggle, the interim council can lead for a very long time. What would possibly appear like delay from the skin is definitely a strategy to handle dangers contained in the nation.
As for the succession course of itself, whereas the Meeting of Consultants formally votes, the actual choices occur a lot earlier. Normally, three casual steps assist slim down the alternatives. The IRGC doesn’t formally choose the supreme chief, nevertheless it has important affect over which dangers are acceptable. Candidates who would possibly weaken the nation’s protection or unity normally don’t get a lot backing.
If the supreme chief’s place is vacant, the IRGC Intelligence Group would probably watch prime officers extra intently and the Floor Forces would concentrate on holding the nation secure. The IRGC’s essential aim could be to maintain the system sturdy and impartial—and to guard its personal financial pursuits. Political tradition flows by means of relational networks centered in Qom. Any successor should possess a theological profile able to securing at the very least tacit validation from senior clerics.
Apart from spiritual and safety elements, the story round succession is necessary. It’s formed not solely by establishments but in addition by how occasions are described. The best way a pacesetter dies impacts what occurs subsequent. If a pacesetter dies in struggle, the concept of martyrdom may imply solely these seen as regular and robust will probably be thought of.
Probably the most delicate time would in all probability come after the brand new chief is chosen, not earlier than. The brand new management must rapidly show its authority at dwelling and present stability to the skin world. In international locations formed by revolution and uncertainty, this proof is proven by means of actions, not simply symbols.
Throughout transitions, some actions might look complicated to outsiders. Strikes that appear aggressive from overseas would possibly really be meant to reassure individuals contained in the nation and present that management continues to be sturdy. What appears to be like like chaos from far-off may actually be an try and carry issues again to regular. Folks typically anticipate sudden collapse, however they could not see how the system is constructed to deal with shocks. Completely different teams normally favor to maintain the system collectively fairly than push their very own pursuits too far.
Iran is regularly portrayed as a political order certain tightly to people. But the structure that emerged after 1979 was shaped by a unique logic, one based within the revolutionary expertise itself. Khomeini captured this hierarchy in a comment typically cited inside Iran’s political elite: “Preserving the Islamic Republic is extra necessary than preserving any particular person, even when that particular person have been the Imam of the Age”—a reference to Shiism’s twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi.
It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not the system will at all times observe this precept. However one ought to anticipate a change in management in Tehran to be handled much less as an ending and extra as an opportunity for the nation’s establishments to indicate they will survive.
