India is launching low-cost, weight-loss medicine and Novo Nordisk is betting on its manufacturers to remain on prime

The primary wave of generic variations of Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 weight-loss medicine launched in India over the weekend, with no less than 5 home drugmakers undercutting the unique worth by as much as 80%. It comes because the Danish drugmaker’s patent expired on Friday, with the corporate combating to take care of its lead within the profitable market. 

India is a crucial market, with round 100 million folks dwelling with diabetes and practically 1 / 4 categorised as overweight. The nation is also referred to as “the world’s pharmacy” with its well-developed generic medicine trade supplying round 20% of world off‑patent medicines. 

Solar Pharmaceutical, one of many prime generics producers on this planet, on Saturday launched a generic semaglutide for as little as 750 rupees ($8) for a weekly injection, or about 3,400 rupees per thirty days. That compares with Novo’s retail worth of between 8,800 and 10,000 rupees in India, relying on the dosage.

In the meantime, export-focused Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories has thus far launched semaglutide for treating diabetes at round 4,200 rupees per thirty days and plans to increase to Canada, Turkey and Brazil this yr. 

The corporate’s purpose is to democratize entry to GLP-1 medicine worldwide, stated Deepak Sapra, CEO of Pharmaceutical Companies and API at Dr. Reddy’s, at a digital launch occasion on Saturday. It is focusing on annual gross sales of 12 million semaglutide pens within the first yr of launch throughout all markets, together with India.

“That is one thing that Indian generic gamers have been making ready for a really very long time,” Salil Kallianpur, an unbiased pharma advisor primarily based in India, informed CNBC.

Greater than 50 manufacturers are anticipated to launch generic variations of semaglutide within the coming months. That is a small quantity by Indian requirements, due to the relative complexity of creating such medicine with their extra stringent quality control, Kallianpur stated.

Whilst semaglutide stays protected against generic competitors within the U.S. – its largest market by far– till 2032, patent expirations in India, Canada, Brazil, and China this yr are prone to have a large affect on its income. In February, Novo warned that gross sales may decline by 5% to 13% in 2026.

Novo is already going through declining market share amid fierce competitors from Eli Lilly and different drugmakers. U.S. President Donald Trump has additionally pushed for decrease drug costs, and a November take care of the administration slashed GLP-1 costs within the nation. It’s unclear whether or not greater gross sales volumes will offset the decrease costs.

In December final yr, Novo diminished the worth of Wegovy by 37% from its launch worth in India, earlier than its patent expired, Reuters reported.

Analysts informed CNBC that Novo wants to chop costs in India to defend its market share. Vishal Manchanda, a pharma sector analyst at Systematix Group, stated that Novo may retain a massive share of the market if it maintains a 15%–20% premium over generic variations.

Generic entries will have an effect on Novo’s gross sales in India, but it surely’s not but clear whether or not the Danish drugmaker will lose its main place, stated Sydbank analyst Søren Løntoft Hansen. 

Novo has traditionally maintained a number one market share regardless of dropping patent safety. The corporate has been a number one producer of insulin since its inception a century in the past, and it has continued to dominate the market whereas nonetheless promoting at a premium to generic rivals. Generic producers have struggled to scale up manufacturing to problem Novo’s dominance, Hansen stated.

Novo is assured in its means to retain customers in India. “Our dimension, know-how, and full care ecosystem justify the worth we’re getting after a 37% discount,” Vikrant Shrotriya, managing director of Novo Nordisk India, informed CNBC’s “Inside India” on Friday.

Though Novo launched widespread weight problems drug Wegovy and diabetes remedy drug Ozempic in India after Lilly launched its rival Mounjaro and Zepbound, it “transformed a mistake into a chance,” because it got here in at a a lot cheaper price and is now launching second manufacturers, Kallianpur stated.

Wegovy is being launched as Poviztra by way of a partnership with Emcure Pharma, whereas Ozempic is being marketed as Extensior in collaboration with Abbott India. These companions carry deep ties to pharmacies and physicians throughout the nation, enhancing the drugmaker’s attain.

It is a basic technique for safeguarding a premium model in opposition to cheaper generics, Kallianpur stated, including that Novo is banking closely on its status. “The model is basically the moat.”

Whereas Solar Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s launched semaglutide at about 50% beneath Novo’s unique costs, smaller domestic-focused producers corresponding to Natco Pharma and Alkem Laboratories are providing steeper reductions of practically 80%.

Natco Pharma’s vial formulation is priced at 1,250 rupees per thirty days, making it one of the crucial inexpensive choices available on the market, whereas Alkem Laboratories has launched the lowest-priced prefilled semaglutide injections beginning at 1,800 rupees per thirty days.

Via a mixture of inexpensive pricing and “in depth distribution throughout smaller cities in India, Alkem goals to “make this product accessible to extra sufferers who want it,” the corporate’s CEO Vikas Gupta informed CNBC in an e mail.

Gross sales of GLP‑1 medicine within the nation have risen quickly, with the transferring annual turnover in February rising 178% from a yr earlier to 14.46 billion rupees, in accordance with knowledge from Indian market intelligence agency Pharmarack.

Regardless of the rising reputation of those GLP-1 medicine in India, the worth stays a key deterrent. Rajiv Kovil, a diabetes specialist, stated practically 50% of his sufferers may benefit from GLP-1 medicine, however solely 5% are presently utilizing them.

There is no such thing as a official indication from Novo or Eli Lilly on a contemporary spherical of worth cuts, acknowledged the Mumbai-based diabetologist, however stated that “Novo will chew the bullet ultimately.”

In the meantime, he plans to attend for extra proof on the effectiveness and availability of the brand new generics earlier than switching his sufferers from Novo’s and Lilly’s GLP-1 medicine.

GLP-1 medicine corresponding to semaglutide are peptide-based medicines that require specialised know-how for manufacturing and distribution, together with a chilly chain for storage, making them extra complicated to fabricate. That is not like most medicine manufactured in India, corresponding to painkillers and antibiotics.

“It’s a must to pay actually good consideration to high quality management, as a result of these molecules are far more complicated than aspirin, for instance,” Knud Jensen, a chemistry professor on the College of Copenhagen and President of the European Peptide Society, informed CNBC.

“High quality management for these massive molecules is harder than for small molecules,” he stated. “The molecule that’s given to sufferers needs to be excellent, and it can’t have any aspect merchandise or contaminants.”

Kallianpur, nonetheless, stated that many underestimate the progress of Indian drug producers over the previous 10 years. 

“They’ve understood that compliance is immediately not a price, however it may be transformed into a really useful moat,” he stated. “That could be a large mindset shift that’s occurring in India.”

Specialists, nonetheless, nonetheless largely agree that regardless of progress, high quality management in India remains to be catching up with Europe or the U.S.

There’s additionally concern amongst some trade watchers that generic semaglutide may turn into accessible in markets the place the drug remains to be patent-protected. “If India is beginning to manufacture GLP-1s at a big scale, that won’t all keep in India, no matter firms strive, international locations attempt to forestall it from coming in,” Ben van der Schaaf, Accomplice at Arthur D. Little, informed CNBC. “It is large enterprise.”

Jyske Financial institution analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen says that if the legal guidelines are adopted and semaglutide is bought solely in international locations the place the patent has expired, Novo would be capable to preserve its market dominance.