Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report, the place we come to you from an uncharacteristically quiet Sunday on the Bayerischer Hof lodge on the ultimate day of the Munich Safety Convention. The dignitaries and officers are lengthy gone, the speeches are carried out, and the safety barricades have been dismantled, however your SitRep co-authors are nonetheless chugging alongside to convey you a last particular pop-up version.
Right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: a “what now?” second for Europe, a “what’s subsequent?” second for Ukraine, and an essential dialog about Gaza.
Whereas the Munich Safety Convention has turn out to be more and more world and hosts high-profile officers and attendees from Japan to Chile, it stays, at its core, a trans-Atlantic and largely European convention. That was very a lot the flavour of the gathering’s last day, which opened with a panel titled “Europeans Assemble! Reclaiming Company in a Rougher World” adopted by one other titled “The European Dream(s): Defending Core Values Underneath Strain.”
The panel titles had been set lengthy earlier than U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s combined message speech on the convention on Saturday, however they tackle a higher that means the day after as Europe will get lifelike about the place Washington stands.
“I agree that there’s an pressing must reclaim European company,” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s prime diplomat, mentioned in her speech introducing the primary panel, the place she previewed an upcoming new European safety technique that can “tackle all dimensions of European safety.”
However first, she opened with a thinly veiled barb at a few of the Trump administration’s favourite assaults towards Europe. “Opposite to what some could say, woke decadent Europe will not be dealing with civilizational erasure,” she mentioned. “In truth, folks nonetheless wish to be part of our membership—and never simply fellow Europeans. Once I was in Canada final yr, I used to be informed that over 40 p.c of Canadians have an curiosity in becoming a member of the European Union, so the ready listing is sort of lengthy.”
‘An existential query.’ The nation on the prime of that ready listing—Ukraine—was the most important focus of the ultimate day, with a lot of the dialogue specializing in the trail ahead for ending its warfare with Russia and Europe’s position in an eventual peace. “The query of how this warfare goes to finish is definitely an existential query for Europe,” mentioned Wolfgang Ischinger, the previous German ambassador to Washington who chairs the convention. “It should decide—in additional methods than one—the way forward for this continent,” he added.
However for all of the panels and speeches, no new solutions appeared to emerge on learn how to truly finish the warfare. The consensus amongst practically all of the Europeans is that, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz put it in his speech to the convention on Friday, “Russia will not be but prepared to speak significantly. … This warfare will solely finish when Russia is no less than economically, doubtlessly militarily, exhausted.” And as John reported yesterday, even U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, considered one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress, is brazenly saying as a lot. But Trump himself continues to insist that Russian President Vladimir Putin desires a deal.
With one other spherical of U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine set to happen this week in Geneva, learn how to resolve that disconnect stays maybe the most important open query of all.
We mentioned a few of these points with Estonian Overseas Minister Margus Tsahkna in a late Saturday night interview on the Bayerischer Hof’s basement tiki bar, which has turn out to be one thing of a SitRep sanctuary over the previous three days.
Tsahkna mentioned that the reset of expectations between the US and Europe that started on the Munich Safety Convention a yr in the past and settled into an equilibrium this yr has been like a “vaccine” for European leaders to appreciate that the trans-Atlantic relationship is “robust, however not unconditional.”
Consequently, he added, “I see a extra self-confident Europe. I see extra European leaders who actually perceive that Putin will not be stopping. It’s on Europe to place extra stress on Russia and provides Ukraine extra assist,” Tsahkna mentioned. “We’re understanding increasingly that we’d like Ukraine in Europe—as a safety assure, as a navy energy, as an financial energy, but additionally an influence that’s truly going to provide every little thing that we’d like for our protection … however in fact, the warfare will not be completed.”
When requested whether or not there’s a disconnect between how Europe and the US see Russia’s willingness to succeed in a deal, Tashina mentioned: “I feel that everyone may be very pragmatic—all people is hoping that good issues could occur, however most likely not, and I feel mentally as properly, Europe is able to proceed to assist Ukraine for the long term.”
Gaza is now not within the world highlight in the way in which that it was even just a few months in the past, however the coastal enclave stays in disaster. The humanitarian scenario continues to be dire, and key facets of the peace course of are stalled. To get a greater image of the place issues stand, SitRep sat down with Philippe Lazzarini, the commissioner-general of the United Nations Reduction and Works Company for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), on the Munich Safety Convention.
Lazzarini mentioned there wasn’t sufficient concentrate on Gaza in Munich. He contributed this lack of consideration to a broader shift that’s occurred since a U.S.-orchestrated cease-fire started in October, which he emphasised is a “cease-fire by identify at this stage” given “practically each day breaches” and the roughly 600 Palestinians killed from the time the truce began. (4 Israeli troopers have been killed in Gaza throughout the identical interval.)
UNRWA has been banned by the Israeli authorities, and Lazzarini mentioned the challenges that the company continues to face and the stress that it’s beneath. Israel has alleged that UNRWA is “infiltrated” by Hamas, which the company categorically denies.
This interview has been edited for size and readability.
SitRep: Are you able to paint an image of the place the humanitarian scenario stands proper now in Gaza?
PL: We [UNRWA] will not be allowed to convey something in. We’re completely constrained. Mainly, the provides we’ve got outdoors of Gaza have been donated to different organizations to usher in. Because the cease-fire began, I’d say the one actual impression has been to forestall the deepening of starvation. Now we have reversed the famine. You continue to have about 100,000 folks in acute meals insecurity. However apart from that, the majority has been reversed.
In any other case, life in Gaza is nothing else than simply distress. It’s a each day wrestle for survival. Winter has been terribly harsh, and there haven’t been satisfactory shelters. Individuals are queuing for hours to have entry to scrub water, for the fundamentals. We’re already 4 or 5 months into the cease-fire. Essentially, apart from the famine and deep starvation dimension, there haven’t been important modifications.
SitRep: What are the challenges UNRWA faces due to the Israeli ban and different current steps, such because the demolition of the company’s East Jerusalem headquarters?
PL: Our company is beneath a fierce, large assault, whether or not operationally, politically, diplomatically, legislatively, legally, and financially—you identify it. At present, we nonetheless have 12,000 staffers working in Gaza specializing in public well being, main well being care, entry to water, waste administration, vaccination campaigns, and likewise in managing shelters and bringing again a studying surroundings for the kids of Gaza.
Regardless of all of the constraints, we’re a part of a neighborhood. Now we have the workforce, we’ve got the experience, and we’ve got the neighborhood’s belief. So, these actions will not be solely ongoing, however they’re even increasing.
We additionally function within the occupied West Financial institution, however we don’t function anymore in East Jerusalem. What occurred in East Jerusalem is awfully outrageous, as a result of it’s based mostly on a Knesset invoice for the federal government to chop off electrical energy and water and to grab the land of all UNRWA’s premises in occupied East Jerusalem, regardless of two ICJ [International Court of Justice] rulings, one declaring the occupation unlawful, the second additionally declaring that choices taken by Israel towards businesses like UNRWA [are] unlawful.
A billboard exhibits an commercial for German UAV and weapons producer Helsing that reads “We Bought This” close to the venue of the Munich Safety Convention in Munich on Feb. 12.Sean Gallup/Getty Photographs
It wouldn’t be an MSC SitRep with out a Mark Rutte second. After the table-sharing awkwardness of final yr, this time, we weren’t events to however witnesses of one other awkward second involving the NATO secretary-general when a reporter at his Saturday roundtable talked about that it was Rutte’s birthday. Rutte thanked the reporter but additionally grew to become somewhat uncharacteristically bashful on the shout-out and rapidly moved on to extra substantive subjects. “No, no. Overlook it,” he mentioned, jokingly, prompting laughter throughout the room.
“Frankly, I can’t think about at this level that we’re going to have a deal in 2026.”
—Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics on the prospect of a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
72,522—we’ve determined to make this a SitRep pop-up custom by counting our cumulative steps all through the convention. In case you had been questioning, Rishi did just a few thousand steps greater than John, however John says, “Work smarter, not tougher.”
