Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s South Asia Transient.
The highlights this week: Bangladesh holds its first election for the reason that ouster of longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Islamabad grapples with the aftermath of its deadliest terrorist assault since 2008, and uncertainties persist within the U.S.-India commerce deal.
Islamists on the Rise?
On Thursday, Bangladeshis will vote in one in every of their most consequential elections in years and the primary for the reason that 2024 rebellion that ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who dominated with an iron fist for 15 years. Hasina oversaw elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 that have been extensively criticized by impartial election observers as not free or honest.
Regardless of considerations about election-related violence, the marketing campaign interval was comparatively peaceable, and the general public temper in Bangladesh seems optimistic. In an Worldwide Republican Institute survey performed final September and October, 66 % of respondents stated they have been very prone to vote, and 80 % stated they have been optimistic that the elections could be free and honest.
Nonetheless, the election unfolds amid some controversy. The interim authorities banned Hasina’s Awami League from taking part in political actions. Which means one of many nation’s largest events will likely be excluded from the vote. The Awami League’s absence is a big a part of why the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP) is the heavy favourite.
The BNP is the nation’s different main dynastic social gathering, which maintains a big base and huge monetary assets regardless of being suppressed by the Awami League for years. The current return of Tarique Rahman, the BNP’s chair and presumptive candidate for prime minister, from exile in London has energized the social gathering. Rahman’s mom, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, died on Dec. 30, 2025.
There may be one other risk that might mark an enormous change in Bangladesh’s electoral politics: a triumph for Jamaat-e-Islami, the conservative Islamist social gathering that has traditionally failed to realize a crucial mass of votes and is thought extra for serving as a junior accomplice in electoral alliances.
Jamaat-e-Islami is controversial. It has ties to the Pakistani navy forces that many students say dedicated genocide in 1971 whereas attempting to suppress Bangladesh’s independence motion. The social gathering additionally has previous institutional linkages to terrorism: Certainly one of its former leaders, Maulana Saidur Rahman, later turned a member of the militant group Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh.
However Jamaat-e-Islami’s political fortunes have surged since Hasina’s ouster. Quickly after taking workplace in August 2024, the interim authorities eliminated a ban on the Islamist social gathering. Final September, Jamaat-e-Islami’s pupil wing swept elections at Dhaka College—a contest lengthy seen as a nationwide political barometer. The result was particularly important given the main function of younger individuals within the democratic rebellion.
Jamaat-e-Islami tasks itself as an anti-corruption social gathering that’s dedicated to delivering on public welfare—a strong pitch, given the general public’s anger over graft and considerations about financial stress. Considerably, the Nationwide Citizen Social gathering—a brand new social gathering comprising pupil leaders from the 2024 rebellion—has joined an alliance led by the Islamist social gathering.
In a current essay, longtime Bangladesh watcher David Bergman supplied different causes that specify Jamaat-e-Islami’s attraction: the weakening of its 1971 “stigma” as time passes, rising anti-India sentiment, and its status as a celebration that rejects outdated political traditions reminiscent of patronage.
Jamaat-e-Islami can also be taking extra average positions. It has backed away from advocating for Islamic regulation, and its leaders have apologized for its function within the 1971 atrocities. The social gathering has even nominated non-Muslim candidates in native elections. However outdated habits die arduous: Present social gathering chief Shafiqur Rahman just lately stated a girl may by no means lead the social gathering.
In the end, Jamaat-e-Islami’s electoral destiny is linked to a number of crucial debates in Bangladesh. These embrace the function of secularism in politics and the diploma to which the concepts behind the 2024 rebellion—reminiscent of youth activism, anti-corruption, and broader political change—proceed to resonate with Bangladeshi society.
Learn extra: Salil Tripathi writes on how, forward of this election, most of Bangladesh’s political events didn’t ship on a modest dedication to place extra ladies on the poll.
What We’re Following
Islamabad mosque assault. Final Friday, a suicide bomber focused a Shiite mosque in Islamabad, killing at the very least 31 individuals and wounding round 170. An area faction of the Islamic State claimed accountability for the assault, the deadliest within the Pakistani capital since a truck bomber killed greater than 50 individuals on the Islamabad Marriott Resort in 2008.
The bombing, very like an assault final November at a courthouse in Islamabad, is an uncommon incidence within the capital, which has been largely spared from a surge in terrorist assaults in recent times. Most have occurred within the nation’s north and west, close to the border with Afghanistan. Final Friday’s assault introduced again reminiscences of deadlier durations in Pakistan’s current historical past.
The tragedy was additionally a reminder of the advanced problem that Pakistan faces in terms of terrorism. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has staged a lot of the current assaults, however Pakistan additionally faces a potent menace from the Balochistan Liberation Military (BLA), which carried out coordinated assaults in Balochistan province on Jan. 31.
The Islamic State has been much less energetic in Pakistan than the TTP or the BLA, nevertheless it has nonetheless staged massive assaults, together with one at a public rally in Balochistan final 12 months. The offshoot that claimed Friday’s assault, the Islamic State-Pakistan Province, is little identified in contrast with South Asia’s primary affiliate, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province—making the horrific assault much more unsettling.
Bangladesh, U.S. ink commerce deal. On Monday, Bangladesh and the US introduced a commerce deal that reduces U.S. tariffs to 19 %—a considerably symbolic lower, because the levy was beforehand 20 %, down from 37 % when U.S. President Donald Trump first introduced his steep tariffs final 12 months.
Nonetheless, it’s a notable achievement for Bangladesh’s interim authorities in its waning days. Beneath the accord, sure Bangladeshi attire and textile exports utilizing U.S.-produced cotton and fiber will obtain zero tariffs. (Prepared-made clothes are Bangladesh’s prime export.) The phrases of the deal additionally give Bangladesh giving larger market entry for a spread of U.S. merchandise, together with agricultural items, chemical substances, and medical units.
Bangladesh additionally promised to guard internationally acknowledged labor rights, which can be tied to ongoing efforts to deliver the U.S. Worldwide Improvement Finance Corp. (DFC) to Bangladesh. The DFC has to date declined to put money into Bangladesh due to labor rights considerations. However the nation may benefit from DFC capital, which is presently targeted on areas together with agriculture, power, and well being.
Uncertainties persist in U.S.-India commerce deal. Confusion stays about key parts of the commerce framework settlement that Trump introduced with India final week. One is the problem of Russian oil imports. A joint assertion signifies that India will halt all Russian oil purchases, however that appears unlikely; New Delhi would wrestle to search out substitute imports at a gorgeous worth.
Trump’s declare that India will purchase greater than $500 billion in U.S. items has additionally sparked skepticism amongst analysts; this pledge appeared within the joint assertion, too. On Monday, the US launched a truth sheet on the deal, which notably makes use of considerably softer language concerning the two points in query. (It additionally takes a couple of pictures at India, slamming it for its “historical past of imposing extremely protectionist non-tariff obstacles.”)
The actual fact sheet notes India’s “dedication” to cease importing Russian oil and states that India “intends” to buy $500 billion in U.S. items. For now, what is thought is that U.S. tariffs on India will come down from 50 % to 18 % and India will finish or lower tariffs on all U.S. industrial items and lots of agricultural merchandise.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Beneath the Radar
This month, Sri Lanka turned the newest in a rising checklist of nations to supply digital nomad visas, which permit distant staff to reside quickly in a rustic whereas working remotely for overseas corporations or purchasers. In Sri Lanka’s case, candidates have to be 18 or older and earn at the very least $2,000 per 30 days with out dependents.
The visa will be renewed yearly and prices $500—seemingly a cut price for an association that provides one the choice of working from the seashore on daily basis. Sri Lanka presumably hopes that foreigners will make the most of this new alternative and inject much-needed income into its financial system—particularly its tourism trade.
Sri Lanka is the second South Asian nation to supply a digital nomad visa. India has one, however it could possibly’t be renewed, and quite a lot of nationalities (together with, curiously, Sri Lankans) are excluded.
