After preliminary jubilation, some Iranian People worry a quagmire

Software program engineer Arin Saghatelian shed no tears when he heard that the supreme chief of his fatherland had been killed by American bombs.

“I don’t assume you’re going to seek out many individuals in assist of that dictatorship or the mullahs which might be in energy proper now,” mentioned Saghatelian, who lives in La Crescenta and fled Iran along with his household when he was 10. “I feel the world is a greater place at this time.”

However the fleeting aid that Saghatelian, 45, felt final week as an exile from Iran shortly turned to the dread he feels as an American citizen and taxpayer: What if his adopted nation will get sucked into one other lengthy, lethal and costly battle just like the conflict in Iraq?

After the preliminary jubilation in “Tehrangeles” and different native Iranian American communities, with hundreds taking to the streets to have fun the loss of life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the tone of some conversations this week grew extra sober.

As Iranian People like Saghatelian watch the speedy escalation of the conflict that started with U.S. and Israeli bombs falling on Iran, some worry that their native nation, and maybe the entire Center East, may descend into chaos.

In Iraq, after a U.S. invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, sectarian leaders stepped into the vacuum. The long-simmering rivalry between Sunni and Shiite Muslims erupted right into a civil conflict that killed tens of hundreds of civilians.

Roozbeh Farahanipour, a former Iranian dissident who now lives in Los Angeles, worries {that a} destabilized Iran, with its complicated cultural heritage and patchwork of ethnic and non secular teams, may devolve right into a far worse mess than post-invasion Iraq.

“It’s extra sophisticated ethnically, civically and traditionally,” so a protracted conflict there “shouldn’t be going to be like Iraq — it’s going to be 10 occasions worse,” he mentioned.

Of the 600,000 or so Iranians dwelling within the U.S., about half are in California, in line with the Iranian Diaspora Dashboard produced by UCLA’s Middle of Close to Japanese Research. By far the largest surge in immigration adopted the 1979 Islamic Revolution that despatched the U.S.-backed shah into exile and swept spiritual hard-liners into energy.

Spiritual minorities, together with Christians and Jews, make up a bigger share of the expatriate group within the U.S. than they do in Iran — they’ve extra motive to go away — however Islam remains to be the dominant faith amongst Iranians right here, mentioned Kevan Harris, an affiliate professor of sociology who teaches programs on Iran and Center East politics on the UCLA Worldwide Institute.

Those that fled the revolution, and the hard-line Islamic rule that adopted, typically contemplate themselves exiles from their residence nation. However the movement of migrants has remained so regular that half of the Iranian-born individuals within the U.S. arrived after 1994, Harris mentioned.

The politics of youthful Iranian immigrants, who come to the U.S. for all types of causes, and eat the total vary of content material obtainable on-line, are extra various than these of their older compatriots.

Professional-Palestine protesters maintain a rally in entrance of campus police at UCLA on March 11, 2025.

(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Instances)

For instance, the UCLA college students protesting Israel’s conflict in Gaza final 12 months arrange their encampment not removed from Harris’ workplace window. He acknowledged some Iranian American college students contained in the makeshift compound, whereas others lined up exterior with counterprotesters.

“There are sufficient Iranians within the U.S. now, particularly in L.A., that you will discover them on each facet of most conflicts,” Harris mentioned.

Saghatelian, the software program engineer, fled after years of conflict that started with Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980 and took the lives of practically one million individuals. His dad and mom wished to be sure that he and his older brother would by no means get sucked into such slaughter.

As a child, Saghatelian was pressured to flee his Tehran neighborhood throughout Iraqi bombardments.

“So I had actual, private curiosity in seeing Saddam fall,” he mentioned.

However he additionally remembers the nightmare that adopted. All of the navy and civilian deaths, all the associated fee to U.S. taxpayers.

“As an American citizen, I fear about that occuring once more,” he mentioned.

And he worries that his American-born mates, who’ve loved comparatively peaceable lives, don’t notice how shortly issues can slide into disaster.

As Christian Armenians, his household had it fairly good beneath the shah of Iran, Saghatelian mentioned, and didn’t undergo that a lot within the fast aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“Because the spiritual mullahs got here to energy, they nonetheless revered the Armenian group. We received to maintain our church buildings,” Saghatelian mentioned. “However yearly, there was an increasing number of stress. You’re virtually like a second-class citizen.”

Different ethnic minorities had it worse, Saghatelian mentioned: “For those who had been Jewish, the extra hard-line the nation received, the extra hazard you had been in.”

After fleeing Iran, Saghatelian’s household spent two years in refugee camps in Germany and Austria. At one level, they had been kicked out of the Austrian refugee program and have become homeless till a Catholic priest took them in and made them caretakers of a medieval church.

However like so many others fleeing Iran, his household’s plan was to discover a strategy to the USA, which they lastly did, settling in Glendale when he was 12.

Since then, he has centered on constructing his life right here, with no actual need to return. However he has saved a watch on circumstances in his native nation through the years, and his mom stays in contact with an uncle who remains to be there.

“It’s a gorgeous nation. I’d love to have the ability to go to freely as a United States citizen,” he mentioned.

“Regime Change in Iran” indicators and pictures of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s final shah, may be seen in plenty of store home windows on Westwood Boulevard as group members and enterprise homeowners react to the U.S. and Israel bombing Iran..

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Instances)

However he doesn’t assume the Iranian authorities will hand over with no lengthy battle, nor does he consider the Trump administration has a long-term plan.

Farahanipour, 54, additionally considers himself an exile. In the summertime of 1999, he was a 27-year-old journalist in Tehran who turned a recognizable determine in a pupil protest motion that known as for a free press, the top of presidency censorship and equal rights for girls. Some, together with him, publicly known as for Khamenei to resign — which was unthinkable on the time, Farahanipour mentioned.

In response, the regime shut down a widely known reformist newspaper, despatched safety forces into a school dormitory and beat and jailed college students who participated in public demonstrations.

On July 12, 1999, Khamenei took to the nationwide airwaves and known as the scholars “rioters” and pawns of overseas enemies. Removed from being discouraged, Farahanipour mentioned, he was in awe. Forcing Khamenei to reply was “the proudest second of my life,” he mentioned, smiling on the reminiscence.

However he didn’t have a lot time to bask within the glory.

“I acquired a loss of life sentence from the regime,” he mentioned, as calmly as others would possibly say they received a parking ticket. Then got here three fatwas — spiritual decrees — calling for his loss of life, he mentioned.

That was after years of seeing relations and acquaintances get “arrested, tortured and executed” by the federal government.

“They hated me and I hated them. It was a two-way road,” he mentioned, which left him with just one alternative: in search of asylum in the USA.

Roozbeh Farahanipour, proprietor of Delphi Greek restaurant in Westwood, stands for a portrait as group members and enterprise homeowners in the neighborhood react to the of bombing of Iran.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Instances)

He has lived in Los Angeles since 2000, opening a few eating places. In 2017, he turned an American citizen, arriving at that momentous determination whereas strolling in a Westwood cemetery.

“This shall be my ultimate handle,” he thought.

Nonetheless, he couldn’t look away from the information earlier this 12 months when a collapse of the Iranian foreign money drove individuals into the streets, sparking a brutal authorities crackdown that killed hundreds of protesters.

When Farahanipour heard about Khamenei’s loss of life, he popped the cork from a champagne bottle and celebrated “the happiest second of my life.”

However like Saghatelian, he quickly started pondering of Iraq.

Shortly after the collapse of Hussein’s ruling celebration, crowds looted authorities workplaces and cultural websites. Heavy infrastructure harm from the U.S. bombing led to continual and fixed failure of the electrical and water techniques in main cities — making them virtually unlivable, particularly within the sweltering summers.

On the peak of the sectarian conflict, elements of Baghdad had been so riddled with impromptu militia checkpoints that many Iraqis began carrying two official-looking IDs — one real and the opposite a forgery with a final identify and birthplace related to the opposite sect.

Selecting which to current, particularly in closely contested neighborhoods, was like tossing a coin along with your life within the steadiness.

“We don’t have a very good monitor file,” Faranhipour mentioned. “What number of American lives did we waste in Afghanistan? How a lot cash did we waste over there simply to switch the Taliban with the Taliban?”

He’s praying the USA received’t get slowed down once more.

“Hopefully the president and his group know what they’re doing,” he mentioned. “They need to declare victory and withdraw.”