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How does one monitor a battle zone on the point of civil struggle, particularly in a area which is troublesome to entry, experiences frequent web shutdowns and the place misinformation is widespread? On this information, we define the open supply instruments and strategies we will use to proof what is admittedly taking place in lots of such battle settings.
Our focus for this information is on India, which recorded 84 web shutdowns in 2024 – the very best quantity amongst democratic nations. In early June, authorities imposed a curfew and suspended web entry in components of Manipur after protests erupted over the arrest of ethnic leaders. The state, within the north-east of the nation, has been wracked by violence for years.
The ethnic battle between the bulk, largely Hindu Meitei inhabitants and the indigenous, largely Christian Kuki Zo communities is without doubt one of the worst spates of violence Manipur, also called the “Land of Jewels”, has skilled in many years.
The Imphal valley in Manipur is surrounded by mountains. It’s residence to 39 ethnic communities. Simply over half of its almost three million residents belong to the Meitei group, adopted by the Naga (20 p.c) and the Kuki Zo (16 p.c) tribes.
The panorama is complicated, with ethnic armed teams divided into a number of factions (this listing isn’t full):
- The ethno-nationalist militia – but to be designated as a banned group – Arambai Tenggol (AT), the United Nationwide Liberation Entrance (UNLF) – Meitei
- Kuki Nationwide Military, Kuki Nationwide Entrance – Kuki
- Zomi Revolutionary Military – Zomi
- Nationwide Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak Muivah) – Naga
In Could 2023, the Manipur Excessive Courtroom handed an order recommending a Scheduled Tribe standing (a class for indigenous communities in India that ensures affirmative motion and constitutional safety over id and land) for the dominant Meitei group. Tribal communities rallied in opposition to the choice whereas the Meitei group held counter-rallies and counter-blockades. Clashes broke out between the Kuki and Meitei teams. Since then, the battle has displaced greater than 60,000 folks and claimed greater than 260 lives from each communities.
On this information, we present you learn how to use open supply strategies in any secluded space to:
- Analyse weapon imagery and the teams utilizing them
- Examine weapons that have been looted and the place they ended up
- Analyse photographs of drones probably used as weapons to deploy munitions
Analysing Weapon Imagery
One efficient method for open supply researchers is to hint the digital footprint of weapons. Within the Manipur case, native armed teams, such because the Arambai Tenggol, the UNLF and the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, have been posting weapon imagery primarily in WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts.
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In keeping with media stories, the struggle has been fueled by weaponry looted from police armouries or procured on the black market both from Myanmar, throughout the border, or via surrenders in amnesty drives.
The 6,000 firearms looted included pump-action shotguns, grenade launchers, AK-pattern rifles, INSAS rifles and ammunition. The police claimed that in February and March alone, greater than 1,000 weapons have been surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted.
Bellingcat analysed weapon imagery from 2023 and 2024, accessed from WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts linked to non-state actors, together with the AT, Kuki Zo militant teams, and numerous volunteer organisations. Whereas these teams have surrendered some weapons in amnesty drives, many refined weapons weren’t turned in and have been solely recovered in search operations by safety forces.
For verification, we ran screenshots of photographs of the weapons with out seen serial numbers or different markings first via reverse picture searches on Google and Yandex. Then, we cross-referenced the photographs with assets just like the Small Arms Survey handbook and Open Supply Munitions Portal (OSMP).
Nevertheless, these databases are restricted of their documentation from India.
We additionally regarded on the public dashboard of Battle Armament Analysis (iTrace). This can be a far bigger information supply. Nevertheless, the complete dataset, which incorporates an enormous variety of photographs of weapons from around the globe, isn’t publicly out there. Solely broad statistics, and no photographs, are seen by way of the dashboard.
The Small Arms Survey handbook helped match and establish, to an approximate accuracy, among the older weapon fashions printed on social media platforms and YouTube. Nevertheless, the guerrilla modifications or customisation of weapons by the militant and militia teams made it difficult to establish the precise fashions.
This was the case in a video posted on X, which purported to indicate militants making ready to fireside a mortar projectile.
By breaking down the video into frames utilizing InVID, a platform that incorporates quite a few helpful instruments for analysing movies, we have been in a position to establish the weapons, offering clearer imagery we might use to return to reverse picture instruments on Google and Yandex, in addition to the Small Arms Survey handbook.
We recognized three weapons from the video:
The form of the weapon held by the militant carrying the beanie cap and scarf in the identical video matches a FAL sample rifle, such because the Indian 1A1 FAL, which has a particular lengthy wood handguard with a number of elongated air flow holes.
“In India, the rifle was produced by the Ordnance Manufacturing facility, Tiruchirappalli and was in service as much as 1998, when it was changed by the INSAS Rifle. Over one million items of the 7.62 mm SLR rifle have been produced by the OFB,” wrote (Retd) Main Basic Dhruv C Katoch, who beforehand served because the Director for Centre for Land Warfare Research.
Additionally seen within the video is an unidentified mannequin 60mm commando mortar. Commando mortars are characterised by a extra moveable design, usually that includes a a lot smaller baseplate and a sling or carrying deal with quite than a bipod, all of which will be seen within the photographs under. The reverse picture search on Google led us to a file picture on Wikimedia posted by the US Military, apart from this evaluation by Jesus Roman, Editor of Revista Ejercitos.
Munitions researcher and PhD candidate in Battle Research at Kings School London, Andro Mathewson, described it as doubtless being a 60mm mortar. “It appears like one man is utilizing the mortar tube, which is comparatively uncommon. Usually, it’s not less than a two or three-man group. And the munition appears mild inexperienced in color with a type of mild metal-coloured fuse and lightweight silvery tail fins,” he stated. “It’s undoubtedly a small calibre mortar, which is a mainstay in army forces. This seems to be army/official manufacture quite than improvised,” Matthewson informed Bellingcat.
Which Teams Use the Weapons?
From the info collected from 2023 and 2024, Bellingcat discovered that many rifles within the photographs have totally different furnishings and show material wraps, improvised slings, aftermarket optics, even taped-on foregrips.
The subsequent step is to establish the assorted teams within the footage. Analysing symbols is an effective approach to try this. For instance, we all know that the Saipikhup is the normal weave of the Kukis. It symbolises heritage and id and is usually worn throughout essential events. We additionally discovered photographs of Kuki militants carrying this handwoven scarf (saipikhup) belonging to the Thadou indigenous tribe.
Their fatigues bear the insignia of the President faction of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, which has been accused of attacking paramilitary safety forces. In the meantime, the identical group within the picture brandishes AR-pattern and INSAS rifles. The INSAS rifle is an Indian police or army problem, matching reported looting from armouries. A number of weapons within the picture have been additionally closely customised, per militia or irregular combatant practices.
Different photographs additionally supply clues.
The Kangleipak is a seven-colour flag often brandished by the AT.
Bellingcat additionally recognized the AT’s commander-in-chief, Korounganba Khuman, within the photographs and movies. He actively posts on his Fb profile and has been extensively lined by the native and nationwide press.
Information shops are additionally helpful sources of data. They may include photographs of symbols comparable to flags, which you’ll be able to then seek for on social media. In one of many movies, we recognized militants talking Meitei Lon, a language utilized by Arambai Tenggol and militant teams just like the UNLF, making ready to fireside a mortar projectile from a mortar. Their fatigues bore an insignia that we matched to the UNLF armed group utilizing reverse picture search, which led us to a information story that includes the group’s flag because the lead picture.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the Disaster Group who visited Manipur final yr throughout elections, informed Bellingcat that although he hadn’t seen arms on any of the aforementioned Kuki Zo militant teams, he had seen INSAS rifles, automatics and double-barrel shotguns being wielded by a number of younger males within the Imphal valley.
“I noticed these younger males who should have been of their early teenagers to early twenties once I’d gone to fulfill Meitei Leepun [a Hindu right-wing activist group] first wielding what regarded like state-issued weapons,” he stated. “Then later, they changed it with double-barreled weapons. However their chief [Pramot Singh] was overtly carrying a pistol in his holster when he got here to fulfill me,” Donthi defined.
Donthi, a former journalist who has reported from battle zones in Kashmir and Chhattisgarh in India, stated he was struck by the younger males who have been closely armed in a unstable setting with none evident aim or political ideology guiding them.
Weapons Looted: The place Did They Finish Up?
When investigating conflicts, figuring out the origin of weapons is without doubt one of the most troublesome duties, significantly in areas affected by misinformation or an absence of dependable information. That is the case in Manipur.
Of the 6,000 firearms and ammunition looted from state police armouries talked about earlier, about half of the weapons have been recovered thus far. Round 1,200 matched serial numbers from official inventories, in accordance with stories. Of the weapons recovered, roughly 800 refined ones doubtless originated outdoors the state, and 600 have been crude, domestically produced firearms.
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The biggest give up of weapons happened in February and March when greater than 1,000 weapons have been reportedly surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted. The biggest cache was surrendered on February 27 by the Arambai Tenggol (AT). Nevertheless, the state police is but to finish categorising the small print of the weapons and ammunition surrendered between February 20 and March 6 in opposition to the stock of weapons looted from the state armouries.
Bellingcat requested official information from the Manipur police on surrendered weapons matched in opposition to serial numbers from official inventories, however had acquired no response by the point of publication.
As an alternative, we determined to see what we might discover through the use of open sources. First, we scraped the state police drive’s official X profile (@manipur_police) from Sept. 10, 2023, till June 14, 2025. We did it manually and utilizing Meltwater – a social media monitoring device.
We dug deeper into media stories, specialists’ posts and analysis to know what was getting used domestically. Within the Manipur case, recovered firearms embrace domestically manufactured bolt-action rifles, improvised mortars and weapons such because the “Pumpi” – a gun comprised of repurposed metallic electrical poles. These are particularly widespread within the hill areas the place the Kuki Zo folks reside.
The heavy reliance on grenades and improvised explosives is per the guerrilla-style, uneven engagements – hit-and-fades, booby-traps, and space denial – quite than large-scale firefights. The presence of a number of improvised munitions sorts displays native workshops or village-level bomb-making, more likely to complement restricted entry to military-grade ordnance, per media reporting on the identical (see right here and right here).
Claims Over Weaponised Drones
In September final yr, Indian media reported villagers within the valley district witnessing drones allegedly dropping as many as 50 bombs. Kuki Zo village volunteers and rebel teams have been reported to have arrange bunkers within the hills, very similar to their Meitei counterparts within the valley.
These claims have been supported by a Manipur Police assertion. The central counter terrorism regulation enforcement authority, the Nationwide Investigating Company, which filed a case alleging weaponised drone assaults, informed the Manipur Excessive Courtroom that Kuki militants dropped 40 drone bombs.
A supply within the Defence Ministry informed Indian information website The Print that the drone movies circulating on-line have been from both Myanmar or Palestine. Lots of the movies confirmed fertiliser drones, however these have been deployed by the Individuals’s Defence Forces in Myanmar, they added.
How Do You Examine Potential Drone Utilization With Open Supply Instruments?
The Manipur Police posted a picture of a drone recovered within the Kangpokpi District, a day after the primary set of assaults.
Step one is to establish the doable drone kind. The simplest approach is through the use of Google’s reverse picture search engine. We recognized the drone as commercial-grade, weighing roughly 181g. These carbon fibre light-weight drones, constructed for velocity and agility with a payload capability of as much as 1.5kg, are extensively out there on the web. Safety sources informed The Print that the bombs weighed 300-400g and have been 9 to 10 inches (23 to 25cm) in dimension.
After establishing the doable drone kind, we will additionally study the reported impression websites. Since we solely have photographs of the assault websites proven within the media, we requested Andro Mathewson, a reputed munitions researcher and explosives skilled finishing his doctoral research on weaponised drones in smaller conflicts at King’s School London, for assist.
He informed Bellingcat that on this scenario, “the payload might be fairly small. So the harm received’t be intensive”.
“Among the photographs which are shared in The Print report,” added Mathewson, “clearly present loads of destruction, however loads of it appears to be type of secondary destruction from fires quite than from explosions itself”.
Nothing was seen that would particularly decide if drones have been used to deploy munitions. The harm from a smaller payload like 400-600g of a grenade wouldn’t exceed greater than 20 to 30m, in accordance with Mathewson, including that bigger or heavier payloads should not usually seen amongst non-professional militaries.
The subsequent step is to search out out if the munitions have been tailored for drone deployment. Mathewson informed Bellingcat that photographs of drone components printed by the media weren’t per munitions deployed by drones. Bellingcat was not in a position to independently affirm the supply or authenticity of those photographs.
“That shrapnel appears massive, very thick, and really heavy, which is extra per bigger artillery rounds and even small missiles,” he stated. He additionally famous that the printed fin “appears fairly small”.
“Fins made out of plastic should not more likely to be connected to a a lot bigger munition that’s produced that kind of shrapnel,” he informed Bellingcat, saying that “from the dimensions that we will get in these photographs, these don’t appear so as to add as much as me”.
For future reference, after we requested Mathewson what to look out for to verify the usage of weaponised drones, he steered two issues. One can be to see and confirm movies of drone strikes, both shot by different drones or on telephones – one thing that’s conspicuously lacking from Manipur regardless of the authorities’ claims that there have been drone strikes, though there’s loads of on-line footage of different refined weapons used there. Secondly, Mathewson additionally stated it was price searching for 3D-printed munition components, comparable to 3D-printed fins which are connected to traditional weapons.
“That’s not essentially a assure, however it’s most carefully related to [modified drones] as a result of the one cause you’d connect fins to a grenade, for instance, is to make them be dropped from drones,” he added.
Correction: This text has been up to date after a picture beforehand incorrectly acknowledged members of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance have been posing with AK-47s, M4 Carbines and M16 weapons. We additionally up to date it to mirror errors in figuring out the bolt motion rifle, the FAL and 60mm commando-style mortar grenade. A bit on chronolocation of this video was additionally eliminated, and a clarification was added that solely the general public iTrace dashboard was consulted, quite than cross-referenced with OSMP and the Small Arms Survey.
Extra reporting by Douminlien Haokip.
Pooja Chaudhuri, Claire Press and Gyula Csák contributed to this report for Bellingcat.
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