How does one monitor a battle zone on the point of civil warfare, particularly in a area which is tough to entry, experiences frequent web shutdowns and the place misinformation is widespread? On this information, we define the open supply instruments and strategies we will use to proof what is actually occurring in lots of such battle settings.
Our focus for this information is on India, which recorded 84 web shutdowns in 2024 – the best quantity amongst democratic nations. In early June, authorities imposed a curfew and suspended web entry in elements of Manipur after protests erupted over the arrest of ethnic leaders. The state, within the north-east of the nation, has been wracked by violence for years.
The ethnic battle between the bulk, principally Hindu Meitei inhabitants and the indigenous, largely Christian Kuki Zo communities is among the worst spates of violence Manipur, also referred to as the “Land of Jewels”, has skilled in a long time.
The Imphal valley in Manipur is surrounded by mountains. It’s residence to 39 ethnic communities. Simply over half of its practically three million residents belong to the Meitei group, adopted by the Naga (20 %) and the Kuki Zo (16 %) tribes.
The panorama is complicated, with ethnic armed group divided into a number of factions (this listing just isn’t full):
- The ethno-nationalist militia – but to be designated as a banned group – Arambai Tenggol (AT), the United Nationwide Liberation Entrance (UNLF) – Meitei
- Kuki Nationwide Military, Kuki Nationwide Entrance – Kuki
- Zomi Revolutionary Military – Zomi
- Nationwide Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak Muivah) – Naga
In Might 2023, the Manipur Excessive Court docket handed an order recommending a Scheduled Tribe standing (a class for indigenous communities in India that ensures affirmative motion and constitutional safety over id and land) for the dominant Meitei group. Tribal communities rallied towards the choice whereas the Meitei group held counter-rallies and counter-blockades. Clashes broke out between the Kuki and Meitei teams. Since then, the battle has displaced greater than 60,000 individuals and claimed greater than 260 lives from each communities.
On this information, we present you easy methods to use open supply strategies in any secluded space to:
- Analyse weapon imagery and the teams utilizing them
- Examine weapons that have been looted and the place they ended up
- Analyse pictures of drones probably used as weapons to deploy munitions
Analysing Weapon Imagery
One efficient method for open supply researchers is to hint the digital footprint of weapons. Within the Manipur case, native armed teams, such because the Arambai Tenggol, the UNLF and the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, have been posting weapon imagery primarily in WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts.
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In keeping with media experiences, the warfare has been fueled by weaponry looted from police armouries or procured on the black market both from Myanmar, throughout the border, or by surrenders in amnesty drives.
The 6,000 firearms looted included pump-action shotguns, grenade launchers, AK-47s, INSAS rifles and ammunition. The police claimed that in February and March alone greater than 1,000 weapons have been surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted.
Bellingcat analysed weapon imagery from 2023 and 2024, accessed from WhatsApp teams and Fb accounts linked to non-state actors together with the AT, Kuki Zo militant teams, and varied volunteer organisations. Whereas these teams have surrendered some weapons in amnesty drives, many refined weapons weren’t turned in and have been solely recovered in search operations by safety forces.
For verification, we ran screenshots of pictures of the weapons with out seen serial numbers or different markings first by reverse picture searches on Google and Yandex. Then, we cross-referenced the photographs with verified databases like Battle Armament Analysis (iTrace), Small Arms Survey handbook and Open Supply Munitions Portal and Trendy Firearms (OSMP).
Nonetheless, these databases are restricted of their documentation from India.
Neither OSMP nor iTrace has any documentation from India regardless of long-standing inside and border conflicts with Pakistan in Kashmir, the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh and elements of India’s Northeast area together with Manipur. Data from Myanmar was referenced, however for probably the most half, weapons used there are much more refined, given the a lot greater scale of battle. The Small Arms Survey handbook helped match and establish, to an approximate accuracy, a few of the older weapon fashions printed on social media platforms and YouTube. Nonetheless, the guerrilla modifications or customisation of weapons by the militant and militia teams made it difficult to establish older and newer gun fashions.
This was the case in a video posted on X wherein militants will be seen getting ready to fireplace a rocket from a rooftop. By honing in on the digital breadcrumbs contained throughout the footage, it was attainable to start constructing an image of the weaponry that was seen. However this course of just isn’t with out its challenges. We couldn’t hint any EXIF file information because it was downloaded from a WhatsApp group. Many immediate messaging and social media platforms strip metadata from imagery, leaving no hint of the unique supply file.
There have been no signposts or any main landmarks within the video for us to establish the placement, so we analysed every body for solar course, shadows and environmental clues. The dominant shadow is at an angle of about 90 levels, which might correspond to both east or west solar positioning – morning solar within the east or afternoon solar within the west. On this case, it seems it was the morning solar within the east because the time stamp on the video exhibits it was shot at 11:18 am on Feb. 14, 2024.
We then went on Suncalc and enter these particulars to search out that the solar was at an virtually 90-degree angle on the given time and day across the Imphal East space, the place Manipur Police had reported firing between armed teams in Imphal East district a day earlier, across the identical time. Search operations have been reported within the foothills of the Dampi vary, Bishnupur – 2.5 hours away from the police coaching academy. This would seem to considerably verify the X submit’s declare that this video was shot in Manipur.
By breaking down the video into frames utilizing InVID, a platform that accommodates quite a few helpful instruments for analysing movies, we have been in a position to establish the weapons, offering clearer imagery we might use to return to reverse picture instruments on Google and Yandex, in addition to the Small Arms Survey handbook.
We recognized three weapons from the video:
- The black rifle is almost certainly a pump-action shotgun
- An Indian 1A1 FAL (Fusil automatique leger or a light-weight machine rifle)
- And a 60mm grenade launcher
The form of the weapon held by the militant sporting the beanie cap and scarf in the identical video matches an Indian 1A1 FAL (Fusil automatique leger or a light-weight machine rifle), which has a particular lengthy wood handguard with a number of elongated air flow holes.
“In India, the rifle was produced by the Ordnance Manufacturing unit, Tiruchirappalli and was in service as much as 1998, when it was changed by the INSAS Rifle. Over 1,000,000 models of the 7.62 mm SLR rifle have been produced by the OFB,” wrote (Retd) Main Basic Dhruv C Katoch, who beforehand served because the Director for Centre for Land Warfare Research.
Additionally seen within the video is a 60mm mortar. The reverse picture search on Google led us to a file photograph on Wikimedia posted by the US Military, apart from this evaluation by Jesus Roman, Editor of Revista Ejercitos.
Munitions researcher and PhD candidate in Battle Research at Kings School London, Andro Mathewson, described it as probably being a 60mm mortar. “It seems like one man is utilizing the mortar tube, which is comparatively uncommon. Usually, it’s no less than a two or three-man group. And the munition seems gentle inexperienced in color with a type of gentle metal-coloured fuse and light-weight silvery tail fins,” he stated. “It’s positively a small calibre mortar, which is a mainstay in navy forces. This seems to be navy/official manufacture somewhat than improvised,” Matthewson advised Bellingcat.
Which Teams Use the Weapons?
From the info collected from 2023 and 2024, Bellingcat discovered that many rifles within the pictures show fabric wraps, improvised slings, aftermarket optics, even taped-on foregrips – probably hallmarks of an irregular militia somewhat than a proper, skilled military.
The following step is to establish the varied teams within the photos. Analysing symbols is an effective manner to do this. For instance, we all know that the Saipikhup is the normal weave of the Kukis. It symbolises heritage and id and is usually worn throughout necessary events. We additionally discovered pictures of Kuki militants sporting this handwoven scarf (saipikhup) belonging to the Thadou indigenous tribe.
Their fatigues bear the insignia of the President faction of the Kuki Nationwide Entrance, which has been accused of attacking paramilitary safety forces. In the meantime, the identical group within the picture brandishes AK-pattern and INSAS rifles. These are each Indian police or navy points, matching reported looting from armouries. A number of weapons within the picture have been additionally closely customised or domestically fabricated (painted, wrapped shares, home-attached scopes), in line with militia or irregular combatant practices.
Different pictures additionally provide clues.
The Kangleipak is a seven-colour flag normally brandished by the AT.
Bellingcat additionally recognized the AT’s commander-in-chief, Korounganba Khuman, within the pictures and movies. He actively posts on his Fb profile and has been broadly coated by the native and nationwide press.
Information retailers are additionally helpful sources of data. They may comprise pictures of symbols equivalent to flags, which you’ll then seek for on social media. In one of many movies, we recognized militants talking Meitei Lon, a language utilized by Arambai Tenggol and militant teams just like the UNLF, getting ready to fireplace a rocket from a rooftop launcher. Their fatigues bore an insignia that we matched to the UNLF armed group utilizing reverse picture search, which led us to a information story that includes the group’s flag because the lead picture.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the Disaster Group who visited Manipur final yr throughout elections, advised Bellingcat that although he hadn’t seen arms on any of the aforementioned Kuki Zo militant teams, he had seen INSAS rifles, automatics and double-barrel weapons being wielded by a number of younger males within the Imphal valley.
“I noticed these younger males who will need to have been of their early teenagers to early twenties after I’d gone to satisfy Meitei Leepun [a Hindu right-wing activist group] first wielding what appeared like state-issued weapons,” he stated. “Then later, they changed it with double-barreled weapons. However their chief [Pramot Singh] was overtly carrying a pistol in his holster when he got here to satisfy me,” Donthi defined.
Donthi, a former journalist who has reported from battle zones in Kashmir and Chhattisgarh in India, stated he was struck by the younger males who have been closely armed in a risky surroundings with none evident objective or political ideology guiding them.
Weapons Looted: The place Did They Finish Up?
When investigating conflicts, figuring out the origin of weapons is among the most tough duties, notably in areas suffering from misinformation or an absence of dependable information. That is the case in Manipur.
Of the 6,000 firearms and ammunition looted from state police armouries talked about earlier, about half of the weapons have been recovered up to now. Round 1,200 matched serial numbers from official inventories, in response to experiences. Of the weapons recovered, roughly 800 refined ones probably originated exterior the state, and 600 have been crude, domestically produced firearms.
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The most important give up of weapons befell in February and March when greater than 1000 weapons have been reportedly surrendered, with greater than half from the Meitei-dominated valley districts, the place a majority of the weapons have been looted. The most important cache was surrendered on Febr. 27 by the Arambai Tenggol (AT). Nonetheless, the state police is but to finish categorising the small print of the weapons and ammunition surrendered between Febr. 20 and March 6 towards the stock of weapons looted from the state armouries.
Bellingcat requested official information from the Manipur police on surrendered weapons matched towards serial numbers from official inventories, however had acquired no response by the point of publication.
As an alternative, we determined to see what we might discover through the use of open sources. First, we scraped the state police drive’s official X profile (@manipur_police) from Sept. 10, 2023, till June 14, 2025. We did it manually and utilizing Meltwater – a social media monitoring device.
Our evaluation of the police’s posts means that of these looted, six AK-47 rifles, 21 SLRs, 13 .303-calibre rifles, 16 INSAS rifles, 15 carbines, and 44 pistols have been recovered throughout that point interval. Knowledge evaluation from the previous two years exhibits that, altogether, clean rounds, cartridges, ammunition, reside rounds and empty circumstances make up the vast majority of recoveries.
Earlier than analysing the info, we dug deeper into media experiences, specialists’ posts and analysis to grasp what was getting used domestically. Within the Manipur case, recovered firearms embody domestically manufactured bolt-action rifles, improvised mortars and weapons such because the “Pumpi” – a gun made out of repurposed metallic electrical poles. These are particularly widespread within the hill areas the place the Kuki Zo individuals reside.
The heavy reliance on grenades and improvised explosives is in line with the guerrilla-style, uneven engagements – hit-and-fades, booby-traps, and space denial – somewhat than large-scale firefights. The presence of a number of improvised munitions varieties displays native workshops or village-level bomb-making, more likely to complement restricted entry to military-grade ordinance, in line with media reporting on the identical (see right here and right here).
Claims Over Weaponised Drones
In September final yr, Indian media reported villagers within the valley district witnessing drones allegedly dropping as many as 50 bombs. Kuki Zo village volunteers and rebel teams have been reported to have arrange bunkers within the hills, very similar to their Meitei counterparts within the valley.
These claims have been supported by a Manipur Police assertion. The central counter terrorism legislation enforcement authority, the Nationwide Investigating Company, which filed a case alleging weaponised drone assaults, advised the Manipur Excessive Court docket that Kuki militants dropped 40 drone bombs.
A supply within the Defence Ministry advised Indian information website The Print that the drone movies circulating on-line have been from both Myanmar or Palestine. Most of the movies confirmed fertiliser drones, however these have been deployed by the Folks’s Defence Forces in Myanmar, they added.
How Do You Examine Potential Drone Utilization With Open Supply Instruments?
The Manipur Police posted a picture of a drone recovered within the Kangpokpi District, a day after the primary set of assaults.
Step one is to establish the attainable drone kind. The best manner is through the use of Google’s reverse picture search engine. We recognized the drone as commercial-grade, weighing roughly 181g. The carbon fibre light-weight drones, constructed for velocity and agility with a payload capability of as much as 1.5kg, are broadly accessible on the web. Safety sources advised The Print that the bombs weighed 300-400g and have been 9 to 10 inches (23 to 25cm) in dimension.
After establishing the attainable drone kind, we will additionally study the reported influence websites. Since we solely have pictures of the assault websites proven within the media, we requested Andro Mathewson, a reputed munitions researcher and explosives knowledgeable finishing his doctoral research on weaponised drones in smaller conflicts at King’s School London, for assist.
He advised Bellingcat that on this state of affairs, “the payload might be fairly small. So the injury gained’t be intensive”.
“Among the pictures which might be shared in The Print report,” added Mathewson, “clearly present plenty of destruction, however plenty of it appears to be type of secondary destruction from fires somewhat than from explosions itself”.
Nothing was seen that might particularly decide if drones have been used to deploy munitions. The injury from a smaller payload like 400-600g of a grenade wouldn’t exceed greater than 20 to 30m, in response to Mathewson, including that bigger or heavier payloads should not usually seen amongst non-professional militaries.
The following step is to search out out if the munitions have been tailored for drone deployment. Mathewson advised Bellingcat that pictures of drone elements printed by the media weren’t in line with munitions deployed by drones. Bellingcat was not in a position to independently verify the supply or authenticity of those pictures.
“That shrapnel seems giant, very thick, and really heavy, which is extra in line with bigger artillery rounds and even small missiles,” he stated. He additionally famous that the printed fin “seems fairly small”.
“Fins made out of plastic should not more likely to be hooked up to a a lot bigger munition that’s produced that kind of shrapnel,” he advised Bellingcat, saying that “from the size that we will get in these pictures, these don’t appear so as to add as much as me”.
For future reference, once we requested Mathewson what to look out for to verify the usage of weaponised drones, he instructed two issues. One could be to see and confirm movies of drone strikes, both shot by different drones or on telephones – one thing that’s conspicuously lacking from Manipur regardless of the authorities’ claims that there have been drone strikes, though there may be loads of on-line footage of different refined weapons used there. Secondly, Mathewson additionally stated it was price looking for 3D-printed munition elements, equivalent to 3D-printed fins which might be hooked up to traditional weapons.
“That’s not essentially a assure, nevertheless it’s most intently related to [modified drones] as a result of the one purpose you’ll connect fins to a grenade, for instance, is to make them be dropped from drones,” he added.
Extra reporting by Douminlien Haokip.
Pooja Chaudhuri, Claire Press and Gyula Csák contributed to this report for Bellingcat.
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