WASHINGTON — When the U.S. Supreme Courtroom sharply curtailed a key provision of the Voting Rights Act final week, Democrats in Washington had a message: The principles of redistricting have modified, and California — the nation’s greatest blue bastion — might have an additional function to play.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) mentioned Democrats ought to “play by the identical algorithm” as Republicans. Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) vowed to battle in “the Deep South and all around the nation.” And Rep. Terri Sewell, an Alabama Democrat, was blunt: “I’ll take 52 seats from California, I certain would. And 17 seats from Illinois.”
The requires motion got here as Republican governors in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississipppi and Tennessee referred to as particular legislative periods to redraw congressional maps forward of this yr’s midterm elections. Florida has additionally accredited new maps that would give the GOP 4 extra seats within the Home, and President Trump urged different Republican states to comply with go well with.
The Republican response has intensified the strain on Democrats to behave, together with these in California — the place the ruling might upend not simply congressional maps, but in addition legislative and native races.
“We will’t permit this nationwide gerrymandering effort of Republicans to go unanswered,” mentioned Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Lengthy Seaside). “If Republicans go for it, I believe we have now to depart all choices on the desk.”
For now, California’s response is much from settled.
Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Los Angeles) cautioned in opposition to “accelerating a race to the underside.”
(J. Scott Applewhite / Related Press)
The chair of the California Democratic Social gathering mentioned there aren’t any present plans to redraw maps — simply months after voters accredited a constitutional modification authorizing a mid-decade redistricting backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The Democratic marketing consultant who drew the state’s present congressional district boundaries says an all-blue map, whereas doable to create, would most likely harm Democrats greater than assist them in the long term. And a number of the state’s congressional Democrats are anxious the impulse to match Republican partisan efforts could be dangerous for the American citizens.
“Relatively than accelerating a race to the underside, the following step is to dial it down as a result of you possibly can attain some extent of no return,” mentioned Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Los Angeles), one of many state’s most distinguished Black lawmakers. “And that’s the place we’re headed.”
What California decides — and when — will matter on the nationwide degree. With 52 congressional seats, no state has extra to supply Democrats in a redistricting battle. However consultants, lawmakers and occasion officers say the trail ahead is extra sophisticated than the calls from Washington counsel.
California might see 48 blue seats, out of 52
That’s partially as a result of California already acted. In 2025, voters accredited Proposition 50, which drew new congressional district strains designed to favor Democrats for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. The brand new maps, which might yield as many as 48 Democratic seats out of 52, are already in impact, and voters have begun receiving their mail-in ballots.
Going farther is just not at present on the desk — no less than not but.
“We’ve got but to totally win the seats within the map that was drawn in 2025. It appears a step too far to say we’re going to return to the drafting board and redraw the map,” mentioned Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Social gathering.
Hicks mentioned it doesn’t imply the problem couldn’t grow to be a part of a future dialogue, however he mentioned Democrats in different states mustn’t look previous what California has already accomplished.
“We’re making an attempt to choose up 48 of them. How far more would you like us to choose up? You need us to make it 52 blue? Effectively, you all ought to get into the battle,” Hicks mentioned. “You all ought to decide up some seats. Let’s all do that collectively, as a result of California can not do it alone, it should take the remainder of the nation.”
Others usually are not satisfied essentially the most aggressive choice makes the strategic sense in California.
Paul Mitchell, the Democratic redistricting marketing consultant who drew California’s Proposition 50 congressional maps, mentioned the push for a 52-0 delegation displays a elementary misunderstanding of how a partisan map would carry out within the state over time.
“A 52-to-zero map would have the potential of backfiring,” Mitchell mentioned. “In 2026, we might decide up 52 seats. However then in 2028 or 2030 — a nasty yr for Democrats, let’s say — Democrats lose 11 of these seats. You’ve drawn these districts so demonically to a Democratic benefit in a superb yr that in a nasty Democratic yr, they don’t have the flexibility to resist the problem.”
Ruling might jeopardize state’s voting rights legislation
The political debate over congressional maps has thus far dominated the dialog in Washington. However authorized students and redistricting consultants say the ruling might even have penalties in California’s metropolis corridor, faculty board and county supervisor races.
The justices’ ruling, determined by the courtroom’s conservative majority, says states can not take into account race to create majority-minority electoral districts whereas permitting them take partisan pursuits into consideration.
“A purely partisan map is definitely extra defensible now than one drawn with racial concerns,” mentioned Rick Hasen, an election legislation professor at UCLA. “It turns the world on its head.”
The ruling now places in danger any district drawn at any degree of presidency that relied on the Voting Rights Act to justify its boundaries, Hasen mentioned.
And in California, that uncertainty extends to districts drawn below the state Voting Rights Act, which extends protections for minority voters past the federal legislation, he mentioned. The state legislation was indirectly at subject within the Supreme Courtroom ruling, however Hasen argues the courtroom’s reasoning might present new authorized grounds to problem the state legislation as doubtlessly unconstitutional.
Cities together with Santa Monica and Palmdale have confronted lawsuits alleging their at-large Metropolis Council elections diluted the Latino vote. Palmdale settled its case and agreed to change to district-based elections; Santa Monica’s case is ongoing. Hasen argued that the cities, in addition to different our bodies, reminiscent of faculty boards, might now return to courtroom to problem whether or not district maps drawn because of the California Voting Rights Act are unconstitutional.
“That has not been examined but,” he mentioned, however he fears the identical arguments made to problem the federal Voting Rights Act may very well be made in opposition to the state legislation.
On the state degree, Republican strategist Matt Rexroad sees the ruling affecting the California Legislature as effectively. He argues the boundaries drawn for the state Meeting and Senate districts are racial gerrymanders.
“These legislative strains, I’d argue, are unconstitutional,” Rexroad mentioned. “And people strains are most likely going to vary by 2028.”
However Rexroad’s greatest concern goes past any single set of maps: It’s the way forward for California’s impartial redistricting fee, the nonpartisan physique he has spent years defending.
A risk to impartial redistricting
Rexroad sees a situation through which the nationwide political surroundings offers California Democrats little incentive to return the map-making energy to the fee. If Republican states proceed to aggressively redraw maps, Democrats could have one other justification to maintain energy within the Legislature’s fingers, the identical argument made to cross Proposition 50, he mentioned.
“I don’t suppose the California redistricting fee has ever been in higher jeopardy than it’s proper now,” he mentioned.
J. Morgan Kousser, a historian who has testified as an skilled witness in voting rights circumstances for 47 years, mentioned California’s dedication to the fee might rely upon how aggressive Republican states act in redistricting.
“If we return to an all-white South in Congress, California might not return to a equity normal,” Kousser mentioned. “It might not disarm. It might rearm.”
Mitchell, the redistricting marketing consultant, mentioned that he hopes California and different states select the trail of disarmament and that there’s a nationwide push for impartial commissions in each state.
“This isn’t good for anyone,” he mentioned. “This was all mainly a nerd battle over strains that didn’t really enhance any districts anyplace.”
