Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s State of affairs Report, the place the U.S.-Israel warfare towards Iran is poised to enter its fourth week with no fast off-ramps or allied navy assist in sight.
Right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: the U.S. intelligence neighborhood’s newest world risk evaluation, a high U.S. official’s resignation over the Iran warfare, and a short-term pause in hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“It’s not the intelligence neighborhood’s duty to find out what’s and isn’t an imminent risk,” U.S. Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard advised Congress on Wednesday whereas testifying on the intelligence neighborhood’s 2026 annual risk evaluation.
That report, in its personal phrases, “displays the collective insights” of the intelligence neighborhood and “focuses on probably the most direct, severe threats to the U.S. primarily throughout the subsequent yr.”
Gabbard’s dissembling got here as she confronted powerful questioning from Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike in regards to the Trump administration’s justifications for the warfare with Iran and the state of Iran’s nuclear program. (Learn extra on her testimony from our colleague Rachel Oswald right here.)
As for the evaluation itself, right here’s what it says in regards to the main U.S. adversaries, conflicts, and threats in 2026.
Iran. The report states that previous to Operation Epic Fury—Washington’s nickname for the Iran warfare—Iran was “meaning to attempt to get well from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure sustained throughout the 12-Day Warfare.” That evaluation—like Gabbard’s oral testimony to the Senate—diverges sharply from the ready remarks that she submitted to senators earlier than the listening to, which stated that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” through U.S. strikes in June and that there have been “no efforts since then to attempt to rebuild their enrichment functionality.” This immediately contradicts one in all Trump’s justifications for the warfare.
Past nuclear considerations, the annual risk evaluation says that the intelligence neighborhood is constant to find out how the “U.S.-Israel-Iran battle” will have an effect on the worldwide terrorism panorama within the yr forward. But it surely stated that “Iran has confirmed able to creating deadly operations towards Individuals at residence and overseas.” The evaluation additionally says that previous to Operation Epic Fury, Iran had “developed space-launch automobiles that it may use to develop a military-viable” intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 “ought to Tehran determine to take action,” which echoes a Protection Intelligence Company report from final yr. It doesn’t say that Iran had determined to take action, nevertheless.
And whereas the evaluation states that Operation Epic Fury “virtually definitely has curtailed Iran’s potential to venture energy,” it emphasizes that Tehran is utilizing all of its remaining capabilities—together with superior ballistic missiles, drones, and regional proxies—to retaliate towards the USA and its allies “within the hope of bringing the battle to a detailed.”
Russia. Russia is repeatedly talked about all through the evaluation, with a significant give attention to its missile improvement and the warfare in Ukraine, which Trump has unsuccessfully sought to finish. “Essentially the most harmful risk posed by Russia to the U.S. is an escalatory spiral in an ongoing battle resembling Ukraine or a brand new battle that led to direct hostilities, together with nuclear exchanges,” the evaluation states.
Notably, there isn’t a point out of Russian (or some other) election interference threats. In years prior—together with 2025, Gabbard’s first yr as intel chief—the U.S. intelligence neighborhood persistently decided that adversaries, particularly Moscow, had been in search of to unfold disinformation and sow doubt within the integrity of the U.S. electoral system. But even in her testimony to the Senate, Gabbard insisted that up to now, the intelligence neighborhood has discovered no proof of overseas threats to this November’s midterm elections.
China. Whereas Chinese language President Xi Jinping and his authorities will search to “overcome perceived containment efforts by the U.S.” and “scale back U.S. navy presence and operations on its periphery,” Beijing can be prioritizing a “productive, secure financial relationship” with Washington and can “search to cut back pressure” when it serves its pursuits, the evaluation says.
Most notably, the intelligence neighborhood “assesses that Chinese language leaders don’t presently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027”—downplaying the oft-cited goal for China’s navy to be able to take the island—“nor have they got a set timeline for attaining unification.”
Western Hemisphere. The evaluation dedicates appreciable consideration to the USA’ heightened focus by itself neighborhood below Trump, devoting its opening part to threats from Latin America—resembling overseas illicit drug actors, transnational gangs, and migration—forward of different threats, resembling terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
“Venezuela continues to wrestle with many of those dynamics, however because the arrest of Nicolas Maduro—who led a corrupt, authoritarian authorities—we have now seen a willingness on the a part of the Venezuelan Authorities to cooperate with the U.S.,” the doc says, referring to the U.S. navy’s January operation to invade Venezuela and seize Maduro.
Different threats famous within the evaluation embody the dangers posed by cyber warfare, synthetic intelligence, and quantum computing, in addition to Russian and Chinese language exercise within the Arctic area and Pakistan’s conflicts with each India and Afghanistan—together with Islamabad’s improvement of ballistic missiles that would “threaten” the USA.
Regardless of a contentious listening to on Wednesday, Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s nomination for secretary of the Division of Homeland Safety superior by means of the Senate Homeland Safety and Authorities Affairs Committee by a slender 8-7 margin, with Democratic Sen. John Fetterman offering the tiebreaking vote. Mullin’s appointment will now be voted on by the complete Senate.
Joe Kent, the director of the Trump administration’s Nationwide Counterterrorism Heart, stepped down on Tuesday, citing his opposition to the warfare in Iran. “Iran posed no imminent risk to our nation, and it’s clear that we began this warfare attributable to stress from Israel and its highly effective American foyer,” he wrote in a letter posted on X saying his resignation.
What needs to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Power assaults escalate. Iran intensified its focusing on of vitality infrastructure throughout the Center East on Thursday, with strikes on a number of oil and gasoline refineries in Israel and Arab Gulf nations prompting fears of an extra spike in already excessive world vitality costs. The Iranian onslaught intensified after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gasoline discipline on Wednesday—a strike that Trump stated the USA “knew nothing” about. Nevertheless, a senior Israeli diplomat advised John on Tuesday that Israel focusing on Iran’s vitality infrastructure “wasn’t a shock” to the Trump administration.
Washington’s European and Asian allies, in the meantime, proceed to stay noncommittal to serving to to reopen and safe the Strait of Hormuz regardless of Trump’s calls for that they achieve this.
Ukraine funding setback. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday blocked a proposed $100 billion European funding bundle for Ukraine that he had beforehand agreed to, over anger at what he stated was Kyiv’s failure to restore a broken pipeline operating by means of Ukraine that provides Hungary with Russian oil—an accusation that Ukraine has denied.
Af-Pak truce. Pakistan will briefly pause its navy operations towards Afghanistan for 5 days in observance of the Muslim vacation of Eid al-Fitr, Pakistani Data Minister Attaullah Tarar introduced in a Wednesday submit on X, including that Pakistan had taken the choice after requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
Nevertheless, he added that any assaults or “terrorist incident” from Afghanistan throughout that interval will end in Pakistani operations resuming with “renewed depth.” The Taliban regime in Afghanistan additionally agreed to the pause for Eid al-Fitr however didn’t present its personal timeframe.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi appears at her watch as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks throughout a bilateral assembly on the White Home in Washington on March 19.Alex Wong/Getty Pictures
Tuesday, March 24: Denmark holds early parliamentary elections.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen in Canberra.
Preliminary listening to in synthetic intelligence firm Anthropic’s lawsuit towards the Pentagon.
Thursday, March 26: Nicolás Maduro and his spouse, Cilia Flores, seem for a courtroom listening to in New York.
France hosts a gathering of the Group of seven (G-7) overseas ministers.
NATO releases its annual report.
$4.5 billion—The entire price of latest Terminal Excessive Altitude Space Protection (THAAD) missile protection techniques that the U.S. State Division authorised for emergency sale to the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, along with $2.1 billion value of anti-drone techniques and F-16 fighter jet upgrades value practically $650 million. The division additionally authorised extra navy gross sales to Jordan and Kuwait.
“It takes cash to kill unhealthy guys.”
—U.S. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth in a press briefing on Thursday, justifying the $200 billion in extra funds that the Pentagon has reportedly requested from Congress for the Iran warfare.
