Welcome to International Coverage’s South Asia Transient.
The highlights this week: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gears up for a visit to Canada to attend the G-7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the State Division’s prime South Asia put up seems earlier than the Senate for a affirmation listening to, and Bangladeshi interim chief Muhammad Yunus visits London.
Modi Goes to Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by telephone final Friday, with the Indian chief invited to attend the G-7 leaders’ summit in Alberta subsequent week.
Modi stated that he appears to be like ahead to assembly Carney on the occasion, which is able to mark the primary go to by an Indian prime minister to Canada since April 2015, when Modi—then within the first 12 months of his first time period—traveled there and met then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Modi has attended 5 earlier G-7 leaders’ summits, relationship to 2019.
Modi’s journey is a serious improvement for India-Canada ties, which have been fraught for the reason that earlier Canadian authorities accused India of involvement within the assassination of a Sikh separatist in British Columbia in 2023. And seen strictly by the lens of bilateral relations, the G-7 invitation could seem questionable.
To make sure, tensions have abated in current weeks, primarily as a result of Carney’s predecessor, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom New Delhi blamed particularly for the pressure in ties, is not in energy. Final month, Indian Exterior Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had a name along with his Canadian counterpart. The 2 sides are reportedly contemplating restoring their excessive commissioners.
However the two sides stay far aside on the difficulty most chargeable for tensions: Canada accuses India of transnational repression towards Sikhs on its soil, whereas New Delhi counters that Ottawa doesn’t do sufficient to deal with the menace posed by Sikh separatists who help the creation of an impartial state of Khalistan.
With little direct, high-level engagement between the 2 sides in recent times, there’s a threat that an encounter between Carney and Modi will probably be awkward. To not point out that Canadian authorities will probably have to cope with the headache of pro-Khalistan activists staging protests towards Modi throughout his go to.
Nevertheless, seen from a broader geopolitical context, it’s arduous to think about Canada not inviting Modi. Although India shouldn’t be a G-7 member, it’s the world’s most populous nation, its largest democracy, and its fastest-growing main financial system (and fourth-largest financial system total). All G-7 members besides Canada have shut ties with New Delhi.
Canada’s acknowledged priorities for the summit—strengthening power safety, facilitating digital transitions, investing in development—all align with India’s personal objectives and strengths. Certainly one of his agenda factors—countering international interference—might show awkward, provided that Ottawa beforehand accused New Delhi of conducting election interference.
Carney’s invitation to Modi additionally displays that the G-7’s members defer to India’s world clout. Many Western states put their varied issues about India—whether or not about its friendship with Russia or democratic backsliding—on maintain to make sure continued shut engagement.
Along with Canada, two G-7 international locations—the United States and the United Kingdom—are members of the 5 Eyes intelligence alliance that fear about Indian transnational repression dangers on their soil. They nonetheless probably backed Carney’s resolution to ask Modi.
Modi’s go to, assuming it results in a gathering with Carney on the sidelines, could be a confidence-building measure that positions the 2 sides to take additional steps to reset relations. The international locations have robust incentives to step up bilateral commerce—which has remained strong regardless of tensions—amid U.S. tariff insurance policies which have focused each India and Canada.
The Khalistan situation definitely stays a sore spot, and it might flare anew if Sikh activists attempt to spoil Modi’s go to with protests. But when bilateral relations enhance in different areas, it will likely be simpler to handle.
In the end, Modi’s journey to Canada can pave the way in which for an additional potential encounter with Carney on the G-20 summit in South Africa in November. That will probably be one other discussion board the place India’s world affect will probably be on show, and its presence welcomed.
What We’re Following
Kapur’s U.S. Senate affirmation listening to. U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the highest South Asia put up on the State Division, S. Paul Kapur, had his Senate affirmation listening to on Tuesday. The earlier assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs was Donald Lu, a senior diplomat. Kapur is an educational who research South Asian safety.
Kapur is a critic of Pakistan and champion of partnership with India, like many senior Trump administration officers. His scholarship has targeted on the hazards of Pakistan’s sponsorship of Islamist militants. On the Senate listening to, his ready assertion mirrored his robust help for U.S.-India partnership, although his remarks included a name for cooperation with Pakistan.
Kapur’s affirmation listening to comes at a important second: The subcontinent is tense after final month’s India-Pakistan battle, and Washington and New Delhi are engaged in commerce talks supposed to decrease U.S. tariffs on India. Feedback that Trump made in regards to the Kashmir situation and Washington’s function in final month’s cease-fire introduced bumps within the highway for the connection.
Moreover, just a few key capitals in South Asia—together with New Delhi, Dhaka, and Islamabad—don’t at the moment have formal U.S. ambassadors in place since Trump took workplace in January.
Yunus in London. Muhammad Yunus, the pinnacle of Bangladesh’s interim authorities, is in the UK this week for conferences with prime British officers, together with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. What stands out in regards to the journey are the 2 distinguished Bangladesh diaspora members that Yunus could meet in London.
One is Tarique Rahman, the son of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and interim chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP)—the principle rival to the Awami League get together and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who resigned beneath strain final August. The opposite is Tulip Siddiq, a British member of Parliament and Hasina’s niece.
Each conferences might have appreciable implications for Bangladeshi politics; Yunus is scheduled to satisfy Rahman on Friday, however it’s unclear if he’ll meet Siddiq.
Rahman, primarily based in London since 2008, is a prime contender to be the BNP’s candidate for prime minister in elections that can probably happen by mid-2026. However many observers are perplexed as to why he hasn’t returned to Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster. A gathering with Yunus would possibly contact on plans for his return—and on the reported variations between Yunus and the BNP on the election timeline.
In the meantime, Siddiq desires to debate what she describes as a “misunderstanding” after Bangladeshi authorities alleged this 12 months that she could have secured massive quantities of land in Bangladesh by corrupt means. (She denies the accusation, which prompted her to resign from her positions as financial secretary to the Treasury and Metropolis minister.)
If Yunus agrees to satisfy Siddiq, it could possibly be interpreted as a conciliatory step to Hasina and her get together. The interim authorities has to this point taken an uncompromisingly arduous line towards the Awami League.
Below the Radar
The delegation that visited Washington from Islamabad final week to push its case after the current India-Pakistan battle was busy, with many conferences with lawmakers, students, media, and the Pakistani diaspora. But it surely didn’t meet with the Trump administration except for an engagement with Allison Hooker, the U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs.
One other much less distinguished Pakistani customer was on the town across the identical time: Bilal Bin Saqib, Pakistan’s minister of state for crypto and blockchain. (A Pakistani minister of state is junior to a minister.) Saqib visited the White Home and met Robert “Bo” Hines, the chief director of Trump’s Council on Digital Belongings.
It’s the solely identified case of a visiting Pakistani official assembly a senior White Home determine throughout Trump’s second time period. Islamabad is working towards legalizing cryptocurrency, and Saqib is CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, established in March. The identical month, Saqib linked Pakistan’s sudden push on cryptocurrency to Trump’s prioritization of cryptocurrency as a coverage situation.
This push seems to have paid off: International friends that Pakistan described as Trump’s “advisors for digital belongings” (most of them within the crypto enterprise) have visited Islamabad to satisfy the finance minister. A U.S. firm with ties to Trump’s sons signed a deal with Pakistan’s Crypto Council in April.
It’s unclear the place all this can go, however for now Pakistan seems to have efficiently used ways to get the Trump administration’s consideration.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Regional Voices
Within the Day by day Mirror, professor G.R.A. Kumara argues that Sri Lanka is squandering its potential to make use of scientific analysis to strengthen improvement. “Sri Lanka, with its wealthy pure sources and educated inhabitants, has large potential,” he writes. “But, regardless of a long time of progress, we stay behind in changing analysis into sensible, scalable options that may uplift the lives of our residents.”
In Prothom Alo, editor Sohrab Hassan highlights the divide between Dhaka and the BNP on Bangladesh’s election timeline. “The interim authorities believes that elections ought to happen solely after rising from the prevailing ‘war-like’ scenario,” he writes. “[The] BNP, alternatively, argues that the longer it takes, the more severe the scenario will turn out to be.”
Within the Print, former Indian Military chief M.M. Naravane warns that India should higher shield all of its territory—not simply its borders—from drone assaults. “We’re surrounded by inimical international locations,” he writes. “[O]ur very important installations aren’t any quite a lot of hundred km from any border, making the establishment of 360-degree preventive and precautionary measures all of the extra pressing.”
