In explaining the U.S. incursion into Venezuela to seize President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump accused Maduro and his spouse of conducting a “marketing campaign of lethal narco-terrorism in opposition to america and its residents,” and Maduro of being “the kingpin of an unlimited prison community accountable for trafficking colossal quantities of lethal and illicit medication into america.”
“Lots of of 1000’s — over time — of People died due to him,” Trump stated hours after U.S. particular forces dragged Maduro from his bed room throughout a raid that killed greater than 50 Venezuelan and Cuban navy and safety forces.
Specialists in regional narcotics trafficking stated Trump was clearly attempting to justify the U.S. deposing a sitting head of state by arguing that Maduro was not only a corrupt overseas chief harming his personal nation but additionally a significant participant within the sweeping epidemic of overdoses that has devastated American communities.
Additionally they stated they’re extremely suspicious of these claims, which have been provided up with little proof and run counter to years of unbiased analysis into regional drug trafficking patterns. International locations akin to Mexico and Colombia play a lot bigger roles, and fentanyl — not the cocaine Maduro is charged with trafficking — causes the overwhelming majority of American deaths, the analysis exhibits.
Maduro’s indictment spells out some overt prison acts allegedly dedicated by him, together with promoting diplomatic passwords to identified drug traffickers so they may keep away from navy and regulation enforcement scrutiny in Venezuela.
(Jacquelyn Martin / Related Press)
It alleges different crimes in broad strokes, akin to Maduro and his spouse allegedly ordering “kidnappings, beatings, and murders” in opposition to individuals who “undermined their drug trafficking operation.”
Nevertheless, Trump’s claims concerning the scope and affect of Maduro’s alleged actions go far past what the indictment particulars, specialists stated.
“It’s very onerous to reply to the extent of bulls— that’s being promoted by this administration, as a result of there’s no proof given in any way, and it goes in opposition to what we expect we all know as specialists,” stated Paul Gootenberg, a professor emeritus of historical past and sociology at Stony Brook College who has lengthy studied the cocaine commerce. “All of it goes in opposition to what we expect we all know.”
“President Trump’s declare that a whole lot of 1000’s of People have died on account of drug trafficking linked to Maduro is inaccurate,” stated Philip Berry, a former United Kingdom counter-narcotics official and a visiting senior lecturer on the Centre for Defence Research at King’s School London.
“[F]entanyl, not cocaine, has been accountable for most drug-related deaths within the U.S. over the previous decade,” he stated.
Jorja Leap, a social welfare professor and govt director of the UCLA Social Justice Analysis Partnership who has spent years interviewing gang members and drug sellers within the L.A. area, stated Trump’s hyper-focus on Maduro, Venezuela and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as driving forces throughout the U.S. drug commerce not solely belies actuality but additionally belittles the work of researchers who know higher.
“Apart from making it a political concern, that is disrespecting the work of researchers, social activists, neighborhood organizers and regulation enforcement who’ve labored on this downside on the bottom and perceive each facet of it,” Leap stated. “That is political theater.”
Venezuela’s function
The U.S. State Division’s 2024 Worldwide Narcotics Technique Report referred to as Venezuela “a significant transit nation for cocaine shipments by way of aerial, terrestrial, and maritime routes,” with many of the medication originating in Colombia and passing by means of different Central American nations or Caribbean islands on their strategy to the U.S.
Federal officers stand guard outdoors the Metropolitan Detention Middle.
(Leonardo Munoz / AFP by way of Getty Photographs)
Nevertheless, the identical report stated latest estimates put the amount of cocaine trafficked by means of Venezuela at about 200 to 250 metric tons per yr, or “roughly 10 to 13 p.c of estimated world manufacturing.” In response to the United Nations 2025 World Drug Report, most cocaine from Colombia is as an alternative trafficked “alongside the Pacific Coast northward,” together with by means of Ecuador.
The identical report and others clarify Venezuela doesn’t play a considerable function in fentanyl manufacturing or trafficking.
The State Division’s 2024 report stated Mexico was “the only real important supply of illicit fentanyl … considerably affecting” the U.S., and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration’s 2025 Nationwide Drug Risk Evaluation stated Mexican organizations “dominate fentanyl transportation into and thru america.”
The Trump administration advised Venezuela has performed a bigger function in cocaine manufacturing and transport in recent times below Maduro, who they allege has partnered with main trafficking organizations in Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico.
Maduro pleaded not responsible at an arraignment in Manhattan federal court docket this week, saying he was “kidnapped” by the U.S.
Whereas many specialists and different political observers acknowledge Maduro’s corruption and imagine he has profited from drug trafficking, they query the Trump administration’s characterization of his actions as a “narco-terrorist” assault on the U.S.
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the Trump ally turned foe who this week stepped down from her Home seat, condemned the raid as extra about controlling Venezuela’s oil than dismantling the drug commerce, partially by noting that far better volumes of a lot deadlier medication arrive to the U.S. from Mexico.
“If it was about medication killing People, they might be bombing Mexican cartels,” Greene posted.
The Trump administration pushed again in opposition to such arguments, whilst Trump has threatened different nations within the area.
U.S. Drug Enforcement Administrator Terry Cole stated on Fox Information that “at a low estimate,” 100 tons of cocaine have been produced and shipped to the U.S. by teams working with Maduro.
Professional enter
Gootenberg stated there’s little question that some Colombian cocaine crosses the border into Venezuela, however that a lot of it goes onward to Europe and rising markets in Brazil and Asia, and there’s no proof massive quantities attain the U.S.
“The entire thing is a fiction, and I do imagine they know that,” he stated of the Trump administration.
Berry stated Venezuela is “a transit nation for cocaine” however “a comparatively minor participant within the worldwide drug commerce” total, with solely a “small portion” of the cocaine that passes by means of it reaching the U.S.
Each additionally questioned the Trump administration labeling Maduro’s authorities a “narco-terrorism” regime. Gootenberg stated the time period arose many years in the past to explain governments whose nationwide revenues have been considerably linked to drug proceeds, akin to Bolivia within the Nineteen Eighties, nevertheless it was all the time a “propagandistic thought” and had gone “defunct” as trendy governments, together with Venezuela’s, diversified their economies.
The Trump administration’s transfer to revive the time period comes as no shock given “the best way they decide up atavistic labels that they assume can be helpful, like ‘Make America Nice Once more,’” Gootenberg stated. However “there’s no there there.”
Berry stated use of the time period “narco-terrorism” has oversimplified the “numerous and context-specific connections” between the drug trade and world terrorism, and in consequence “led to the conflation of counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism efforts, incessantly leading to hyper-militarised and ineffective coverage responses.”
Gootenberg stated Maduro was a corrupt authoritarian who stole an election and definitely had information of drug trafficking by means of his nation, however the notion he’d one way or the other turn out to be a “mastermind” with leverage over transnational drug organizations is far-fetched.
A number of specialists stated they doubted his seize would have a large impact on the U.S. drug commerce.
“Negligible. Marginal. No matter phrase you wish to use to point essentially the most minor of impacts,” stated Leap, of UCLA.
The Sinaloa Cartel — one in every of Maduro’s alleged companions, in keeping with his indictment — is a significant participant in Southern California’s drug commerce, with the Mexican Mafia serving as intermediary between the cartel and native drug gangs, Leap stated. However “if anybody tries to attach this to what’s taking place now in Venezuela, they don’t perceive the character of drug distribution, road gangs, the Mexican Mafia, all the pieces that goes on in Southern California. There isn’t any connection.”
Berry stated within the wake of Maduro’s seize, “quite a few state and nonstate actors concerned within the unlawful narcotics commerce stay unaffected.”
