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Authorities shutdown now seen lasting three weeks. (0:17) Sam Altman will give the DevDay keynote for the world’s greatest startup. (4:47) Bitcoin prime $125,000 for first time. (2:57)
The personal sector continues to prepared the ground for Wall Avenue with the federal government shutdown coming into its second week.
Prediction market Kalshi now has the shutdown lasting almost 21 days (a 64% likelihood of its lasting greater than 15 days, 52% for greater than 20 days and 40% greater than 25 days).
Goldman Sachs economists say for every week of a shutdown, the direct impact of furloughed federal staff would scale back fourth-quarter annualized actual GDP development (quarter-on-quarter) by about 0.15 proportion level. Reopening would end in an equally sized optimistic impact on development within the first quarter, assuming the shutdown ends earlier than then.
If something can take the highlight from the shutdown, it’s the AI commerce. And the week kicks off with a serious occasion. OpenAI hosts its DevDay on Monday with CEO Sam Altman kicking off the occasion with a keynote at 1 p.m. ET. He may even take part in a fireplace chat with Apple designer Jony Ive at 7:15 p.m. ET.
No product releases have been teased, however there’s hypothesis the corporate might debut a long-rumored AI-powered browser (presumably named Aura) that might problem Google’s Chrome.
Microsoft-backed (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI hit a personal market valuation of $500 billion this previous week, making it the world’s most useful startup.
Additionally this week, the AI bulls at Wedbush reiterated that they see the tech bull market lasting one other 2-3 years and any worries a few tech bubble are “means overdone,” with enterprise spending tendencies accelerating.
And to make certain we get the LLM perspective, ChatGPT advised me: “I’m most trying ahead to Sam Altman’s keynote, which ought to unveil what’s subsequent for GPT-5, multimodal instruments like Sora, and the brand new ‘Responses’ API that deepens agent capabilities. I’m additionally curious to see how OpenAI makes real-time, voice, and security instruments extra sensible for builders — the items that flip demos into each day use.”
Seeking to earnings, 5 S&P 500 corporations will report Q3 outcomes this week. The highlights will probably be PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Strains (DAL) on Thursday.
Analysts anticipate Pepsi to report EPS of $2.26 on income of $23.86 billion. Activist investor Elliott Administration is looking for strategic adjustments akin to refranchising to enhance bottling inefficiencies. Jefferies mentioned a transfer to refranchise might sharpen the give attention to high-growth areas of the Pepsi portfolio.
Delta is forecast to put up EPS of $1.53 with income of $15.94 billion. SA analyst Dhierin Bechai says Delta is executing the enterprise higher than a lot of its friends whereas buying and selling at a reduction,” which creates an fascinating purchase alternative.
Additionally on the earnings calendar:
Constellation Manufacturers (STZ) reviews Monday.
On Tuesday, McCormick (MKC) points numbers.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) and Tilray (TLRY) be a part of Pepsi and Delta on Thursday.
On the financial entrance, the shutdown doubtless robs merchants for numbers on the commerce steadiness and weekly jobless claims once more.
However on Wednesday the FOMC minutes of its final assembly will probably be carefully watched. Odds of two extra quarter-point fee cuts this yr topped 85%.
On Friday the College of Michigan releases its preliminary measure of October shopper sentiment. Final week the Convention Board’s measure of shopper confidence fell to a five-month low.
Within the information this weekend, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose by $125,000 for the primary time. The crypto has been up six of the final seven days, fueled by sturdy inflows into bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional curiosity.
OPEC+ has agreed in precept to boost oil manufacturing by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in November. The transfer echoes the modest improve made in October.
And Costco (COST) members will quickly get entry to blockbuster weight reduction drugs Wegovy and Ozempic at half the record worth.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) introduced plans to supply its well-liked GLP-1 drugs to cash-paying members of Costco as a part of a brand new partnership with the pharmacy operations of the warehouse membership.
For earnings traders, JPMorgan (JPM) goes ex-dividend on Monday, paying out on Halloween.
Greenback Normal (DG) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, with an Oct. 21 payout date.
Oracle (ORCL) goes ex-dividend on Thursday, paying out on Oct. 23.
And dividend heavyweight AT&T (T) goes ex-dividend Friday, paying out on Nov. 3.
And within the Wall Avenue Analysis Nook, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett is predicting what investing themes will probably be “in” and what will probably be “out” within the second half of this decade.
The second half of the 2020s tilts towards safety, state intervention, demographics/tech shifts, and new asset performs — whereas globalization, Fed independence and outdated market darlings are seen as previous their peak.
People are “out” and robots are “in.” Fed independence provides strategy to Fed deference, quantitative easing is “out” and yield curve management is “in,” the AI bull turns into the AI bubble and The Magnificent 7 make means for China’s – Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi.
