Welcome to Overseas Coverage’s second-ever Southeast Asia Transient. Primarily based out of Jakarta, I’ve been carefully watching this area for years—fascinated by the pivotal position it has in geopolitics and the worldwide financial system in addition to its advanced native dynamics. Following this culturally and linguistically various area generally is a problem, however this Transient goals to offer a information to each the headline points and a number of the quieter developments beneath the floor.
The highlights this week: Timor-Leste’s protests discover an echo in Southeast Asia and past, Thai safety forces and Cambodians conflict on the border, Australia’s Albanese struggles for a date with Trump, and the newest cycle of China-Philippines escalation kicks off at Scarborough Shoal.
Timor-Leste Protests Resonate Throughout the Area
Protests have rocked international locations in Southeast Asia and past in current weeks, with younger individuals taking to the streets to show in opposition to perceived elite corruption and extra. Final week, it was Timor-Leste’s flip, with protests led by college college students erupting within the capital of Dili on Sept. 15.
For 3 days, protesters gathered to demand an finish to plans by the Nationwide Parliament to purchase 65 Toyota Prados, one for every parliamentarian, and the abolition of parliamentary pensions. Police fired tear gasoline, whereas protesters set hearth to tires and authorities automobiles.
Issues have since calmed, with Parliament promising to cancel the automotive purchases and eliminate pensions. Nonetheless, sources in Dili warned that there may very well be extra unrest if root causes akin to poverty, inequality, and a notion of self-dealing amongst officers weren’t addressed.
Former Timorese Prime Minister Rui Maria de Araújo advised Overseas Coverage that the Gen Z uprisings in international locations throughout the area confirmed a “development in extraparliamentary democratic rejection of public insurance policies and governance behaviors which hurt the frequent curiosity of the individuals.” The opposition Fretilin celebration, of which Araújo is a member, has swung behind the protests.
Some famous that the grievances that sparked the newest demonstrations have been long-standing. “The automobiles are a recurring grievance—and a symbolic one,” stated Parker Novak, a Timor-Leste knowledgeable and director on the Worldwide Republican Institute. “There’s something to be stated for it reflecting perceptions of an elite that’s higher off economically than most Timorese.”
Having received its independence from Indonesia in 2002, Timor-Leste nonetheless struggles with endemic poverty. Some 40 % of Timorese are impoverished, and 46 % of kids endure from malnutrition, stated Aurélio Guterres, a former Timorese international minister and Fretilin member. “Within the face of such staggering want, the choice to allocate $4.2 million for luxurious automobiles and parliamentary advantages isn’t just fiscally irresponsible—it’s a merciless demonstration of how disconnected our leaders are from the struggling of the individuals,” he stated.
College students additionally warned of escalation if Parliament did not ship on its promised concessions. Celcio Soares, a scholar consultant, stated veterans teams from the independence wrestle in opposition to Indonesia have been planning to affix the protests if parliamentarians reneged on their commitments.
Final week’s protests happened amongst a swell of unrest in Southeast Asia and past. Demonstrations rocked Indonesia in late August (which I reported on for Overseas Coverage) and toppled the Nepali authorities this month. The Philippines is seeing ongoing protests, which turned violent on Sept. 21.
Whereas native dynamics are at play, frequent themes emerge. First is anger at corruption amongst political elites: lavish housing allowances for MPs in Indonesia, “nepo child” conspicuous consumption in Nepal, infrastructure graft within the Philippines, MPs’ automobiles and pensions in Timor-Leste.
The second is an outdated vs. younger ingredient. These international locations have younger populations, and youth have been on the forefront of protests. Nonetheless, older individuals dominate the formal political programs. The median age in Timor-Leste is 21, whereas the president is 75, and the prime minister is 79. Indonesia, Nepal, and Philippines have comparable conditions.
Third is that these protests are inspiring each other. The One Piece flag, a cranium and crossbones with a straw hat taken from the eponymous manga, began as a protest image in Indonesia. However it’s now flown by protesters all through the area.
Demonstrations in different international locations “energized the protesters,” stated Fidelis Magalhães, a former Timorese minister and member of the opposition Folks’s Liberation Celebration.
What We’re Watching
Thailand-Cambodia flare-up. On Sept. 17, Thai safety forces and Cambodians clashed in a disputed border space, as tensions persist after the temporary border skirmish in late July. The incident happened in an space Cambodia calls Prey Chan, Banteay Meanchey, and Thailand calls Ban Nong Ya Kaew, Sa Kaeo. Not less than 30 Cambodians have been injured—together with civilians, Buddhist monks, and a minimum of one soldier—based on reporting by pro-government Cambodian media. Thai officers have been additionally reportedly injured.
The day earlier than, based on the Royal Thai Military, Cambodian troopers accompanied by civilians eliminated barbed wire laid by Thailand within the disputed space. Issues escalated when Thai armed power and riot police entered the disputed space after which started to use rubber bullets, tear gasoline, and acoustic units to clear Cambodians from the world whereas laying new barbed wire. Cambodians reportedly threw objects and used slingshots in opposition to Thai forces.
Additional escalation appears doable. The Thai provincial authorities has issued an ultimatum ordering Cambodians it accuses of encroaching on border areas to depart by Oct. 10 and has additionally threatened to arrest violent protesters. Cambodia, in the meantime, is making an attempt to attract within the worldwide neighborhood. Prime Minister Hun Manet has despatched a letter to world leaders together with U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese language President Xi Jinping, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and U.N. Secretary-Normal António Guterres accusing Thailand of evicting Cambodian civilians. Thailand, nevertheless, appears to want to keep away from additional worldwide involvement.
Australia prepares for Trump snub. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is heading to america and can doubtless come again nonetheless with out having a proper one-on-one assembly with Trump. The failure to safe a gathering with the chief of Australia’s most essential safety companion will increase eyebrows and issues in lots of quarters. Albanese initially steered away from Trump forward of his Could reelection, utilizing the previous’s poisonous model in Australia to wreck the marketing campaign of opposition chief Peter Dutton, who was dubbed a “Temu Trump.” After successful, although, he has tried to reverse course with no success.
The assembly issues, as having lengthy relied on the U.S. safety umbrella, Australia is going through its rising unreliability. The Quadrilateral Safety Dialogue—with Australia, america, Japan, and India—is on the rocks. And key figures within the Trump administration are skeptical of the AUKUS nuclear submarines program. “I feel it’s most likely probably the most consequential assembly between an American and Australian in residing reminiscence,” Kurt Campbell, a key diplomat beneath former U.S. President Joe Biden, stated at an occasion in Sydney final week. Clearly, Campbell has by no means seen the 1986 traditional Crocodile Dundee.
Malaysian Islamists push for energy. Malaysia’s opposition has descended into internecine battle. Whereas the alliance continues to be holding, for now, the Islamist celebration PAS is tussling over management of the nation’s opposition coalition, Perikatan Nasional (PN). PAS is the single-largest celebration in Parliament and makes up greater than 60 % of the opposition. Regardless of PAS’s rising election success, its hard-line fame historically led its companion, Bersatu, to take the lead. Now, although, PAS figures are suggesting somebody from their celebration, not Bersatu, ought to be PN’s prime ministerial candidate.
Battle on the Vietnamese field workplace. Vietnamese audiences are packing cinemas to observe two home movies produced by, respectively, the Army Cinema Studio and Folks’s Police Cinema Studio. Mua do (Crimson Rain) is a nationalist chest-thumper that depicts the bloody Second Battle of Quang Tri. The movie has been a smash hit, changing into the highest-grossing Vietnamese movie of all time. This week, it misplaced its prime spot to the police-produced Tu chien tren khong (Sky Showdown), impressed by a 1978 airplane hijacking.
Picture of the Week
Vietnam’s Duc Phuc performs in the course of the Intervision Music Contest on the Dwell Enviornment in Moscow on Sept. 20.Olesya Kurpyayeva/AFP through Getty Photos
Vietnam’s Duc Phuc triumphs at Intervision 2025 in Moscow. After Russia’s expulsion from Eurovision in 2022 over its invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin revived the Soviet-era tune contest. Vietnam was this 12 months’s solely Southeast Asian attendee.
FP’s Most Learn This Week
Native Voices
Some 50 members of the Cambodian safety forces died in July’s clashes with Thailand. In Nikkei Asia, Ananth Baliga and Phoung Vantha combed by way of social media and different knowledge to provide you with a determine significantly greater than Cambodia’s official declare of simply 5 army deaths.
“With Min Aung Hlaing’s forces bombing villages and torching properties, how can individuals probably keep their livelihoods or feed their households?” Exiled Myanmar economist U Sein Htay spoke to the Irrawaddy final week on how the junta is digging into an outdated financial playbook to outlive.
In Focus: Escalation at Scarborough Shoal
Chinese language and Philippine vessels have as soon as once more clashed round Scarborough Shoal within the South China Sea, some 135 miles from the Philippine mainland. Specialists described it as the newest cycle of escalation in China’s lengthy marketing campaign to claim management over different international locations’ territorial waters that it lays declare to as a part of its “nine-dash line.”
In keeping with the Philippine Coast Guard, on Sept. 16 two China Coast Guard vessels deployed water cannons in opposition to a Philippine fisheries vessel for half-hour, inflicting “vital harm” and injuring one individual. The Philippines says the vessel was on a mission to resupply Filipino fishers on the reef. The China Coast Guard admitted that it had deployed water cannons however claimed that 10 Philippine authorities ships had entered the waters across the shoal, which China claims as its personal.
For greater than a decade, Chinese language and Philippine vessels have jousted in waters round this reef and different places within the South China Sea. Issues appear to have moved into the next tempo not too long ago. On Aug. 11, two Chinese language army vessels crashed into one another whereas harassing a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, with doable fatalities on the Chinese language aspect. And on Sept. 10, China declared the waters round Scarborough a nature reserve—in what many see as a clear try to attempt to bolster its doubtful authorized claims to the world.
Nonetheless, some say, current occasions match a long-standing sample. “China-Philippines tends to be a bit cyclical,” stated Gregory Poling, the director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative on the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research. The same old sample, Poling stated, is China will undertake extra aggressive and riskier techniques in a contested space till an incident happens that’s harmful sufficient to persuade each side to maneuver to de-escalate.
Poling admitted that he was stunned tensions continued to rise after the Aug. 11 crash. The doubtless Chinese language deaths in that incident could be the primary deaths of army personnel within the South China Sea since 1988, Poling famous, when China gunned down 64 Vietnamese troopers elevating a flag on a reef within the Spratly Islands, which China additionally claims.
