A handful of seats are all that hold Republicans in command of the Home, giving President Trump untrammeled sway over, effectively, just about all the pieces, from the financial system to the jokes on late-night TV to the design of the Cracker Barrel emblem.
It’s a quantity that’s each tantalizing and fraught, relying in your political perspective.
For Democrats, that eyelash-thin margin means they’re thisclose to regaining energy and a political toehold in subsequent 12 months’s midterm election. All they want is a acquire of three Home seats. For Trump and fellow Republicans, it means their hegemony over Washington and life as we all know it dangles by a perilously skinny thread.
That rigidity explains the redistricting wars now blazing all through our nice land.
It began in Texas, the place Trump pressured Republicans to redraw congressional strains in hopes of handing the GOP as many as 5 further seats. That led California Democrats to ask voters, in a Nov. 4 particular election, to approve an eye-for-an-eye gerrymander that would yield their occasion 5 new lawmakers.
A number of different states have waded into the battle, assuming management of the Home may be determined subsequent 12 months by only a few seats, somehow.
Which may occur.
Or not.
Anybody claiming to know for positive is both mendacity, making an attempt to frighten you into giving cash, or each.
“Historical past is on Democrats’ aspect, however it’s too early to know what the nationwide political atmosphere goes to be like,” mentioned Nathan Gonzales, one of many nation’s high political handicappers and writer of the nonpartisan marketing campaign information Inside Elections. “We don’t know the general temper of the citizens, how glad voters [will be] with Republicans in energy in Washington or how open to vary they’ll be a 12 months from now.”
A glance again provides some clues, although it must be mentioned no two election cycles are alike and the previous is just illuminating insofar because it casts mild on sure patterns.
(Take that as a caveat, weasel phrases or no matter you care to name it.)
Within the final half century, there have been 13 midterm elections. The out occasion — that’s, the one which doesn’t maintain the presidency — has received 13 or extra Home seats in eight of these elections. Going again even additional, since World Warfare II the out occasion has gained a median of greater than two dozen Home seats.
In Trump’s final midterm election, in 2018, Democrats received 40 Home seats — together with seven in California — to grab management. (That was 17 greater than they wanted.) A Democratic acquire of that magnitude appears unlikely subsequent 12 months, barring an entire and utter GOP collapse. That’s as a result of there are fewer Republicans sitting in districts that Democrats carried in the newest presidential election, which left them extremely weak.
In 2018, 25 Republicans represented districts received by Hillary Clinton. In 2026, there are simply three Republicans in districts Kamala Harris carried. (13 Democrats characterize districts that Trump received.)
Let’s pause earlier than diving into extra numbers.
OK. Prepared?
There are 435 Home seats on the poll subsequent 12 months. Most are a lock for one occasion or the opposite.
Based mostly on the present congressional map, Inside Elections charges 64 Home seats nationwide as being no less than considerably aggressive, with a dozen thought-about toss-ups. The Prepare dinner Political Report, one other gold-plated handicapper, charges 72 seats aggressive or having the potential to be so, with 18 toss-ups.
Each agree that two of these coin-flip races are in California, the place Democrats Adam Grey and Derek Tran are combating to hold onto seats they narrowly received in, respectively, the Central Valley and Orange County. (The Democratic gerrymander seeks to shore up these incumbents.)
You actually can’t assess the 2026 odds with out figuring out how the redistricting battle comes out.
Republicans may decide up as many as 16 seats by partisan map-making, Inside Elections forecasts, a quantity that will be diminished if California voters approve Proposition 50. Erin Covey, who analyzes Home races for the Prepare dinner Report, places GOP beneficial properties as excessive as 13, once more relying on the November end result in California.
Clearly, that will enhance the GOP’s possibilities of hanging onto the Home, which is exactly why Trump pushed for the extraordinary mid-decade redistricting.
However there are a lot of different components at play.
One big aspect is Trump’s approval ranking. Merely put, the much less common a president, the extra his occasion tends to undergo on the polls.
Proper now Trump’s approval ranking is a dismal 43%, in response to the Prepare dinner Report’s PollTracker. That might change, however it’s a hazard signal for Republicans. Over the previous three many years, each time the president’s internet job approval was unfavorable a 12 months from the midterm election, his occasion misplaced Home seats.
One other factor Democats have going for them is the eagerness of their voters, who’ve been flocking to the polls in off-year and particular elections. The Downballot, which tracks races nationwide, finds Democratic candidates have far surpassed Kamala Harris’ 2024 efficiency, a possible harbinger of sturdy turnout in 2026.
These benefits are considerably offset by a GOP edge in two different measures. Republicans have considerably outraised Democrats and have restricted the variety of Home members retiring. Typically talking, it’s harder for a celebration to defend a seat when it comes open.
In brief, for all of the partisan passions, the redistricting wars aren’t more likely to resolve management of the Home.
“Opinions of the financial system and Trump’s dealing with of it, the recognition (or lack thereof) of Republicans’ signature laws” — the tax-cutting, Medicaid-slashing invoice handed in July — in addition to “partisan enthusiasm to vote are going to be extra determinative to the 2026 end result than redistricting alone,” Amy Walter, the Prepare dinner Report’s editor-in-chief, wrote in a current evaluation.
In different phrases, management of the Home will probably relaxation within the palms of voters, not scheming politicians.
Which is strictly the place it belongs.
