Overlook ‘complete obliteration’ — consultants say Iran and U.S. want to barter : NPR

President Trump doubled down on his claims that the U.S. strikes in Iran final weekend “obliterated” its key nuclear services, lashing out at studies of a leaked intel evaluation, which said that Iran’s nuclear program had solely been set again by “just a few months.”

Chatting with reporters whereas attending the NATO summit within the Netherlands, Trump mentioned he was assured the battle between Israel and Iran was over. The 2 sides agreed to a ceasefire immediately, after Trump declared one on social media Monday night time.

Trump mentioned on the summit that he had plans to speak with Iran subsequent week, however mentioned he did not assume it was obligatory to return to a cope with Iran over abandoning its nuclear ambitions.

“We might signal an settlement,” he mentioned, however later added “I do not assume it is necessary,” reiterating the success of the U.S. strikes.

President Donald Trump, middle, speaks throughout a media convention on the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, June 25, 2025.

Matthias Schrader/AP

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Matthias Schrader/AP

However consultants on the area and Iran’s nuclear program say that whatever the quantity of harm carried out to Iran’s nuclear services, deliberate negotiations resulting in an enduring settlement are essential. In any other case, a resumption of the conflict – which might embody the U.S. – appears inevitable.

“This ceasefire, for my part, goes to be very quick lived for each the Israelis and the Individuals, except there’s a very critical political technique, and President Trump primarily takes that leap,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, senior coverage fellow and Iran knowledgeable on the European Council on International Relations.

Dana Stroul, who was the Pentagon’s prime Center East official between 2021 and 2023, mentioned the necessity for negotiations as quickly as potential is “completely vital.”

“This can be a very uncommon method to strategy a ceasefire,” says Stroul, now analysis director at The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “There’s nothing written down, nothing articulated, no timeline and no recognized mechanism for the right way to mediate accusations of dishonest.”

A “head-spinning” two weeks

Wednesday’s feedback from Trump had been the newest in what Geranmayeh known as a “head-spinning two-week interval” between Israel, Iran and the U.S. that has left many watchers of the area struggling to catch up.

It started with deliberate nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which had already gone a number of rounds however had been canceled when Israel launched a shock assault on Iran in mid-June. The talks had initially been going nicely, however had begun to stall within the extra technical particulars.

The U.S. then struck a number of nuclear websites inside Iran with huge bunker-buster bombs final weekend, as the one nation in possession of each the weapons and the supply system to make such a strike.

Reporters take pictures of a displayed graphic as Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine converse throughout a information convention on the Pentagon in Washington, Sunday, June 22, 2025, after the U.S. navy struck three websites in Iran, instantly becoming a member of Israel’s effort to destroy the nation’s nuclear program.

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Alex Brandon/AP

Since that strike, a number of Iranian officers have brazenly talked about persevering with the nation’s nuclear program – which Iran maintains is peaceable, however which Israel says was aimed toward constructing a nuclear bomb – notably with regard to enriching uranium, a key part for a nuclear weapon.

“President Trump has to discover a approach through which to get again to the nuclear negotiating desk as shortly as potential,” says Vali Nasr, Iran specialist and professor at Johns Hopkins College.

Nasr careworn that point shouldn’t be on the facet of the U.S. proper now.

“The Iranians might already be busy constructing a bomb, having realized that they had been simply invaded by two nuclear armed nations, and that, in the end, you realize, the one option to face such a menace is nuclear weapons,” he says.

Iran can rebuild

Consultants have lengthy warned that attacking Iran might have the other impact to what its adversaries need – as a substitute of deterring its nuclear ambitions, it might pace them up.

“I have been making this level for at the least 30 years, that each one that issues is reconstitution,” says Kenneth Pollack, vice chairman for coverage on the Center East Institute, speaking concerning the rebuilding of Iran’s nuclear program.

Pollack says there merely is not a approach it may be curtailed by way of navy motion alone.

“Regardless of what number of scientists the Israelis kill, they are not going to have the ability to assassinate Iran again to nuclear ignorance. The information is simply too widespread throughout the Iranian system,” he says.

He factors to the truth that there may be nonetheless a lot about Iran’s nuclear program that’s unknown, particularly after the latest hostilities, together with the place a big stockpile of extremely enriched uranium may be.

Rafael Grossi, the Director Common of the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company, indicated on Monday that there is a likelihood it survived the assaults, having been moved by Iran forward of time — however mentioned that the nuclear watchdog presently has no accounting of it.

Iran has restricted its interplay with IAEA inspectors for a number of years, though they had been nonetheless allowed to watch declared nuclear websites. On Wednesday, Iran’s parliament authorised a invoice that successfully suspended cooperation with the company. That transfer would wish additional approval to be applied.

“The Iranian regime has invested a long time in its nuclear program and in addition an unparalleled quantity of assets,” says Stroul, of The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “So to assume that after lower than two weeks, they’re simply going to take a knee and abandon their whole nuclear ambitions is probably going a brief sighted strategy.”

Talks will not be straightforward

Trump has signaled that U.S. and Iranian officers might be assembly subsequent week.

Shira Efron, director of analysis at Israel Coverage Discussion board, a New York-based analysis group, says that is excellent news, if true.

“An settlement would ship one thing much more sustainable than the ceasefire that we’ve got,” she says. “The query is, what is going on to return out of those talks? They cannot be talks only for the sake of talks.”

These talks, in the event that they occur, are nearly definitely going to be difficult, given the extraordinarily technical nature of the nuclear concern, and the hardened positions on each side.

“That is the actual take a look at for the artwork of the deal, proper?” says Nasr, of Johns Hopkins. “Do you even have the diplomats with the authority to barter, to do the heavy lifting? Do you may have the correct crew to try this? It is not solely intention, it is the capability to ship.”

Geranmayeh, who consulted in the course of the diplomatic monitor that led to the 2015 nuclear deal underneath Obama, says in some ways in which deal helped lay a pathway for talks at present. However with out worldwide inspectors getting access to Iranian services, she says it might be arduous to know what precisely to barter about now.

“Though we mainly know what the options are and how one can put the Rubik’s Dice again collectively, the technical facet has turn into harder,” Geranmayeh says.

Like placing a Rubik’s Dice again collectively blindfolded, she says.