Novo Nordisk’s quarterly beat and steering improve did little to resolve Wall Avenue’s largest concern: whether or not the Ozempic maker has a convincing path again to sustainable progress as competitors from Eli Lilly intensifies.
Analysts mentioned the better-than-expected quarter benefited from rebate changes and different non permanent elements, weight problems drug gross sales had been broadly according to expectations, and oral Wegovy barely missed forecasts.
On the similar time, Novo reported one other blended scientific outcome for next-generation weight-loss drug CagriSema, reinforcing investor questions in regards to the firm’s longer-term pipeline.
“General nothing to encourage,” Citi analysts wrote, whereas Jefferies mentioned the steering improve left little room for consensus gross sales estimates to maneuver increased.
The Danish drugmaker hiked its full-year steering and mentioned it now expects adjusted gross sales and working revenue to be down 6% to flat at fixed trade charges, an enchancment from earlier steering of a decline of between 4% and 12% for each metrics.
Copenhagen-listed shares fell as a lot as 5% in morning buying and selling earlier than paring some losses to commerce 3.4% decrease. Novo’s American depositary receipts fell 6% in after-hours buying and selling Tuesday after the quarterly report was revealed someday sooner than anticipated.
Eli Lilly shares have outperformed Novo ADRs over the previous 12 months.
Novo is racing to revive investor confidence in its pipeline and talent to execute, particularly within the difficult U.S. market, amid intense strain from Eli Lilly’s rival medicines Zepbound and Mounjaro, which have quickly gained market share regardless of being launched years after Novo’s.
Coming into Wednesday buying and selling, the corporate’s Danish shares had fallen about 5% year-to-date and had been down almost 70% from their mid-2024 peak, even when they’ve recovered some floor this yr following the profitable launch of the Wegovy capsule.
Novo mentioned the improved outlook was pushed by elevated expectations for GLP-1 product gross sales and particularly its Wegovy product portfolio, which incorporates each an injectable and a capsule. The capsule has reached greater than 5 million prescriptions since its launch, alongside encouraging early uptake in markets outdoors the U.S. and the rollout of a newly accredited increased dose of injectable Wegovy, Novo mentioned.
“I might see a future the place truly this market is, to a big extent, a capsule market,” Mike Doustdar informed CNBC’s Carolin Roth on Wednesday, whereas stressing that the launch was solely six months outdated.
“The fantastic element is that [the] first 1 million prescriptions took us 11 weeks to do with none competitor available in the market. This final 1 million prescriptions took us 4 weeks to do. Whereas there is a competitor on the market making an attempt actually onerous to take these prescriptions away from us, and we have now not allowed that,” he mentioned.
Eli Lilly launched its rival weight reduction capsule Foundayo in April, roughly 4 months after the Wegovy capsule hit the U.S. market. It has seen slower preliminary uptake, and Lilly CEO David Ricks has beforehand informed CNBC that it’ll take time to construct the model since it is a new drug that medical doctors and sufferers do not know.
