Welcome again to our second and remaining 2026 NATO summit version of Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report. U.S. President Donald Trump is wheels up from Ankara, however not on his shiny new Qatari-gifted airplane. As a substitute, he mentioned he will likely be “going residence by regular strategies,” by which he means taking an older Air Drive One aircraft (and never seats 29D and 29E of Turkish Airways like your SitRep co-authors).
Alright, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: Trump wraps up an erratic NATO summit and Ukraine will get a large (however obscure) provide.
NATO allies introduced billions in new protection investments, hammered residence hopeful messages of alliance unity, and careworn that Europe was making extra progress in taking good care of its personal protection.
Then Trump got here in like a wrecking ball.
Between his arrival on the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday afternoon and his departure on Wednesday night, Trump resurfaced his long-standing want to take over Greenland from Denmark, mentioned he would minimize off all commerce with Spain, and threatened to drag all U.S. troops out of Europe.
In the meantime, the U.S. additionally began bombing Iran once more—following assaults on vessels within the Strait of Hormuz. Trump mentioned he thinks the cease-fire with Tehran is “over,” known as Iranian leaders “scum,” and threatened to hit the nation “laborious once more tonight” in addition to probably reimpose the naval blockade. Trump mentioned talks with Iran may proceed, however he believes they’re a “waste of time.”
All of this pushed the Iran battle into the highlight at a summit that many NATO allies had hoped would give attention to Ukraine and protection spending commitments.
“Trump was speaking about Iran lots,” Estonian Overseas Minister Margus Tsahkna informed SitRep minutes after rising from the North Atlantic Council leaders’ assembly on Wednesday. “I believe that, after all, publicly, it turned away the eye from NATO issues and Ukraine-Russia. Now everyone is speaking about what’s going to occur with this Iran-U.S. [conflict].”
Lithuanian Overseas Minister Kestutis Budrys informed SitRep that the alliance despatched “good messages” concerning Ukraine in Ankara, together with by having Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the gathering and that includes a robust assertion in regards to the nation’s contributions to trans-Atlantic safety within the Ankara Summit Declaration. However Budrys additionally mentioned that developments within the Center East have been “after all” taking “consideration from Ukraine, and it has a value.”
“There are particular hours that you may spend with the problems, and when you’re spending with the others it means much less for Ukraine,” Budrys mentioned, noting that this may translate into “much less capabilities” for Kyiv.
The U.S. carried out recent strikes on Iran on Wednesday, simply hours after Trump departed Ankara.
NATO (dis)unity. NATO entered this 12 months’s summit hoping to challenge a way of solidarity. In a press convention on Wednesday, NATO chief Mark Rutte mentioned there was a “nice sense of unity” on the Ankara summit, including that allies “warmly welcomed President Trump’s management that’s remodeling this alliance and making it stronger.”
However that message wasn’t particularly convincing after Trump—the chief of probably the most highly effective NATO member—spent a lot of the summit publicly attacking allies and airing numerous grievances, starting from progress on spending commitments to an absence of involvement within the Iran battle.
On Wednesday, he known as for america to “minimize off all commerce” with Spain, seemingly over its refusal to decide to the alliance’s protection spending goal, describing the nation as a “wasted trigger” and “a horrible accomplice in NATO.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez—who has criticized Trump over the Iran battle—downplayed the U.S. president’s remarks and insisted that relations between Washington and Madrid are “constructive.”
Trump additionally used the summit as a possibility to reiterate his want for america to accumulate Greenland—an aspiration that has enraged NATO allies. “Greenland is essential to america, but it surely’s not vital to Denmark,” Trump mentioned Wednesday. “We’d like it for the safety of the world, not simply america.”
Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, a founding member of NATO. Trump’s obsession with Greenland has repeatedly been met with pushback by the Danish authorities. And certain sufficient, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who’s right here in Ankara, needed to state as soon as once more that the island is “not on the market.”
Different NATO members additionally spoke out in assist of Denmark. “The entire goal of NATO is that we defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our member states. That after all additionally goes for the Kingdom of Denmark,” Norwegian Overseas Minister Espen Barth Eide informed SitRep.
Nevertheless, Trump was apparently extra amicable in a closed-door assembly with NATO allies. Barth Eide mentioned there was “no point out” of Greenland within the assembly. “That’s a vital level,” he mentioned. “There was no reference in any respect contained in the assembly, and that was good as a result of then this didn’t turn into a theme of the NATO assembly; it was one thing that occurred exterior.”
And Trump in the end praised the alliance throughout his press convention on Wednesday night. “This was a tremendously profitable summit,” Trump mentioned. However Trump additionally adopted a extra constructive tone on NATO on the tail finish of final 12 months’s summit in The Hague, and it’s probably solely a matter of time earlier than he begins lobbing insults on the alliance and its members once more. As NATO wraps up the Ankara summit, Trump’s unpredictability is poised to be an ongoing existential problem for the alliance. However some NATO members are nonetheless optimistic about its future.
Budrys, who in Might informed John that Trump is definitely making NATO stronger, mentioned on Wednesday that the alliance is “shifting in a great route” and that “we aren’t doubting U.S. dedication” to its allies.
Ukraine could have been considerably overshadowed by Iran, however Zelensky is unlikely to be overly bothered, as he’s strolling away from the summit with a giant win: Trump goes to present Ukraine a license to make the Patriot air protection programs that Kyiv has been requesting for months. “This manner you possibly can’t complain that we’re not giving them sufficient,” Trump mentioned throughout a Wednesday information convention with Zelensky.
There’s nonetheless lots of uncertainty round when and the way Ukraine will get that license, with Trump admitting that they “haven’t knowledgeable the corporate of that but.” Nevertheless it’s a big functionality and a big shift from Trump and Washington, spurred on partly (as we wrote yesterday) by Ukraine’s current navy success in opposition to Russia.
That success, a number of European officers informed SitRep on Wednesday, is strictly why Ukraine must turn into a NATO member.
“If you wish to have NATO 3.0 led by Europe, which is taking accountability, then we’d like Ukraine in,” Tsahkna mentioned. “It’s the biggest navy energy that may take accountability for these gaps we’ve if the U.S. is definitely lowering participation.” However Ukrainian lawmaker Oleg Dunda mentioned it doesn’t matter whether or not Ukraine is formally a part of the alliance, telling SitRep that he’s strolling away from the summit with “emotions that Ukraine is part of NATO already.”
Requested if the U.S. battle in opposition to Iran was distracting NATO from Ukraine, Dunda cited a “must separate NATO into two components” between Washington and everybody else. “For america, the state of affairs in Iran is extra essential than Ukraine for now,” he mentioned. “However the European a part of NATO is making an attempt to distance itself from the Iranian state of affairs, and for them, Ukraine is extra essential than Iran.”
However in the end, he mentioned, it’s pure for Trump to come back round. “Everybody desires to face shoulder to shoulder with the winner,” he mentioned. “Even MAGA.”
NATO leaders pose for a household photograph through the NATO summit on the Bestepe presidential compound in Ankara, Turkey, on July 8. Ludovic Marin/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
SitRep spoke to Omer Ileri, a member of parliament from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Improvement Social gathering, in regards to the nation’s internet hosting of the summit this 12 months.
“The truth that the summit is in Turkey this 12 months is for my part underlining the significance and significance of Turkey for NATO, however it is usually emphasizing the strategic place Turkey holds in world affairs typically,” Ileri mentioned.
Turkey’s relationship with NATO has been difficult, given its ties with adversaries Russia and Iran and its longtime opposition to Finland and Sweden becoming a member of the alliance (although it in the end reversed that coverage).
However Ileri mentioned that Turkey’s “geopolitical location” and its quickly rising protection trade have turn into belongings to NATO because the alliance makes an attempt to construct up its capabilities. “The primary takeaway of this summit, in my private opinion, is that going ahead, Turkey is probably turning into the innovation powerhouse of the alliance,” he mentioned. “I might anticipate the burden and significance of Turkey to extend going ahead within the alliance.”
Ileri declined to straight tackle whether or not Turkey would intervene and assist mediate between america and Iran, however he mentioned that “no matter occurs globally, eventually Turkey will likely be proper on the heart of the discussions and the developments.”
“I’m no. 1 on TikTok, and all I do is speak about communism.”
—Trump in his rambling press convention earlier than leaving Ankara.
